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Emerging Non-Volatile Memory 2016
Jul.2016

time-to-market_by_application_with_first_players_2096761289
6 490 €

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Description

couv flyer emerging

The new storage-class memory (SCM) category will be the biggest emerging NVM market, with embedded MCU seeking emerging NVM for strategic differentiation.

PCM leads the race to storage-class memory (SCM), but RRAM will catch up soon

In 2015, the Micron/Intel alliance presented a breakthrough stand-alone memory product called 3D Xpoint, developed in secret for many years, which uses PCM material instead of RRAM as we expected. Thus, after being down and out for a while, PCM made a big comeback in the emerging NVM race. This product has an amazingly high density for an emerging NVM (128 Gb), which is close to the latest NAND thanks to high node (20nm), a 3D crosspoint structure, and a good selector. We expect PCM will have the largest emerging NVM market share by 2021, thanks to its prominent promoters (Micron/Intel), which have sufficient influence to create a new SCM category using 3D Xpoint in the memory hierarchy. Indeed, creating a new memory category is a sea-change that will require numerous hardware and software developments by all memory ecosystem players. And while there is no general agreement, many experts believe DRAM sales will decrease due to SCM’s increased use. For this reason, many incumbent players, especially DRAM ones, have postponed their SCM product introduction in order to extend their DRAM profits, which over the last several years have been very high.

SCM will be the clear go-to market for emerging NVM in 2021. SCM will be adopted in enterprise storage and client applications, and later in mobile. SCM will greatly enhance systems’ speed and data protection, especially in data centers where traffic will explode in the coming years. Customers will use either PCM or RRAM for SCM Storage (S) type applications that require high capacity, and STTMRAM for SCM Memory (M) type applications where high endurance and speed are required.

A main selection criterion for memory is chip scalability/density, since this impacts both performance and cost. To this end, Yole’s report provides a precise memory roadmap in terms of technological nodes, chip density, and pricing.

In the stand-alone market mostly focused on SCM for the next five years, the big players’ technological choices are now quite clear: Micron/Intel have chosen PCM, SK Hynix and Sandisk/Western Digital have selected RRAM as the competitor to PCM for SCM applications, and Samsung seems also to favor RRAM thanks to its compatibility with the vertical 3D approach used for 3D NAND.

Substitution of 3D NAND by RRAM and DRAM by STTMRAM will commence very slowly before 2021, focused in niche applications where price is less sensitive. Indeed, incumbent technologies have found new solutions to further scale down their technologies, as has happened many times in the past.

This report provides a market forecast for each technology: by application, in units, in Gbit, by revenue, and also in number of wafers. It also presents a review of the main technological trends and some key technical developments by the main players.

Time to market by application with first players 

Emerging NVM are key differentiating technologies for embedded MCU

Embedded MCUs often use eflash NVM technology, but this technology consumes lots of power and its scalability becomes cost-prohibitive at 28 nm node. With its recent scalability progress, emerging NVM will be increasingly used in low-power IoT & wearable, smart card, and other markets, first at 40 nm thanks to its lower power consumption, and then at 28 nm thanks to its competitive cost. The big question is, which emerging NVM to choose? Some early movers like Panasonic and SMIC have selected RRAM, while top foundries (TSMC, GF, Samsung) will propose STTMRAM in 2017 – 2018, and ST Microelectronic selected PCM for the 28 nm node in 2020. But many key players (Renesas, Infineon, Texas Instruments, MicroChip, Cypress) have not yet officially chosen. Considering the trend toward STTMRAM among the foundries, we expect STTMRAM will lead the embedded market in 2021. However, thanks to its lower cost, RRAM/PCM could take a larger market share if it is selected by some players.

This emerging NVM report describes why and how emerging NVM technologies will be increasingly used in various markets. The key market segments described in this report are: enterprise storage SCM; client SCM; low-power IoT & wearable; MCU smart card and other markets; mobiles devices; mass storage; and industrial, transportation, and consumer electronics.

Forecast by application 

Multiple players in the supply chain are participating in the emerging NVM market’s growth

Emerging NVM sales are still moderate ($53M in 2015), and limited to niche markets due to the limited density available. Higher density products’ introduction have been delayed by MRAM pioneers (Everspin, Crocus, Avalanche), and Micron/Intel delayed their PCM sales to 2017. The emerging NVM market in 2015 was thus considerably lower than the dominant volatile DRAM and non-volatile Flash memory businesses, which had combined revenues of almost $80B in 2015.

However, the global emerging NVM market will soar from $53M in 2015 to $4.6B by 2021, exhibiting an impressive growth of +110%/year. This forecast is based on a conservative scenario, but our report also provides a best-case scenario with an even broader adoption of NVM.

There are a wide variety of technologies, business models, and markets (stand-alone vs. embedded) in the emerging NVM market. As such, this report analyzes in detail the different supply chain players in the stand-alone and embedded markets, and their strategies to adopt emerging NVM:

  • Integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) with internal manufacturing capabilities: These players dominate the highly concentrated stand-alone memory supply chain, with five players accounting for 90% of DRAM and NAND sales
  • Foundries: These players (i.e. TSMC, GF, Samsung, TowerJazz) are the main chip manufacturers for embedded memory markets, namely mobile microprocessor units (MPU) and MCUs. They are very interested in initially adopting emerging NVM for the embedded business, but in the long run emerging NVM could also help them enter the stand-alone memory market and feed their expensive fabs.
  • Emerging start-up NVM companies (Everspin, Crossbar, Adesto, Avalanche, etc.) target both stand-alone and embedded markets and rely on foundries’ manufacturing infrastructure. They are expected to be acquired by big IDMs when the emerging NVM market ramps up.

One big technological transition occurring right now is the substitution of HDDs with semiconductor NAND SSDs. The next revolution will be emerging NVM’s arrival. We have analyzed the supply chain’s dynamics to understand who today’s key market players are in each application and technology, and how the competitive landscape will evolve with the arrival of emerging NVM. We have also conducted a special analysis of the Chinese memory supply chain, which is growing rapidly thanks to huge Chinese government financing plans and the country’s substantial memory needs.

Cannibalization trends between semiconductor memory HDD and emerging NVM 

Objectives of the Report

This report’s objectives are to:

  • Present an overview of the semiconductor memory market: NAND, DRAM, embedded MCU, and mobile MPU
  • Provide an understanding of emerging NVM applications for seven applications : technologies, market trends, players, challenges, drivers.
  • Offer market forecasts for the emerging NVM business for seven applications and three technologies : PCM, MRAM/STTMRAM, RRAM
  • Describe emerging NVM technologies and players : roadmap, technical trends, key products.

what's new

  • New market segment: Client SCM
  • Modification of wearables segment into new “low-power Internet of Things (IoT) & wearables” segment
  • Updated market forecast for phase-change memory (PCM), MRAM/STTMRAM, and RRAM
  • Addition of chip density (Gb/mm2) to the market forecast
  • Analysis of China’s memory market
  • Main scientific conferences: trends analysis
  • Main R&D labs: mapping
  • In-depth analysis of embedded markets (MCU and mobile CPU)
  • Deep analysis of foundry positions in the supply chain
  • Start-up funding analysis
  • Analysis of new entrants
  • Analysis of technical trends for MRAM/STTMRAM, RRAM, and PCM

 

Table of contents

Executive Summary     15


Standard Memory Market Introduction     37


NAND Market Overview     46


DRAM Market Overview     53


Niche Stand-Alone Memory Overview    59


Embedded SoC Memory Overview     63


Memory Market Players Overview      69


Emerging NVM Overview     80


Emerging NVM Applications     106


Industrial & Transportation Applications    119

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enterprise Storage SCM Applications     122


Client SCM Applications    131


MCU Smart Card & Other Markets    135


Low power IoT & Wearable Applications    146


Mobile Devices Applications    155


Mass storage NAND Applications    162


MRAM/STTMRAM Technology, Forecast & Players     168


RRAM Technology & Forecast & Players    195


PCM Technology, Forecast & Players     223


General Conclusions    242

Companies cited

4DS
A*STAR
Adesto
Aeroflex
Altis
Apple
Atmel
Avalanche
Buffalo
CEA leti
Cisco
CNE
Crocus
Crossbar
Cypress
Dell
Ebay
EMC
evaderis
Everspin
Facebook
Freescale
Fujitsu
Fusion IO
Gemalto
Giesecke&Devrient
Global Foundries
Google
Honeywell
HP
Huawei
IBM
Imec
Infineon
Innovative silicon
Intel
ITRI
Knowm
Lenovo
Macronix
Maxim
Mediatek
Microchip
Micron-Elpida
Morpho
Nanya

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Tsing Hua university
NEC
NetApp
Nike
Nokia
Numonyx
NXP
Oberthur
Panasonic
Qualcomm
Quantum
Rambus- Unity
Renesas
Samsung
Sandisk
Seagate
SGI
SK Hynix
Skyera
Smart modular technologies
SMIC
Sony
Spansion
Spin Transfer technology
Spreadtrum
ST Microelectronics
Standford university
STEC
Sun
Symetrix
TDK
Tezzaron
TMS
Tohoku university
Toshiba
Towerjazz
TPSCO
Tsinghua Unigroup
TSMC
UMC
Violin Memory
Weebit
Western digital
Winbond
XMC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Market forecast 2015 - 2021 in units, in Gbit, US$, and number of wafers
  • Competitive landscape and market dynamics
  • Emerging NVM potential applications and market drivers
  • Technological roadmap with time-to-market
  • Price evolution by application and technology
  • Technology description, main technical trends per technology, main players, roadmap.