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Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2015
Nov.2015

revenue_forecast_by_advanced_packaging_platform_2014-2020_v2
5 990 €

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Description

couv Yole Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry

IoT driven semiconductor industry consolidation is reflecting into a highly dynamic Advanced Packaging landscape. Demand for advanced packaging and market size is increasing.
Focus is turning to integration and wafer level packages to enable a functionality driven roadmap and revive the cost/performance curve

A transformation of the semiconductor industry is under way – advanced packaging is part of the scaling and functionality roadmaps
The latest events in the technology market indicate that 2015 marks the beginning of an exciting new era for the IT and electronics industry. At semiconductor supply chain level, the industry entered a profound consolidation phase with high M&A activity reshaping the business landscape. Front-End-of-Line device scaling and related cost reduction are deviating from the path they followed for the past few decades, with Moore’s law in its foundation. Advanced nodes do not bring the desired cost benefit anymore and R&D investments in new lithography solutions and devices below 10nm nodes are rising substantially. As the smartphone market matures, new forces are appearing in the form of the Internet of Things (IoT). While the mobile sector continues to drive the market, the scent of IoT is already spreading in the consumer sector with products such as wearables and first smart home appliances. IoT market, application and technology segmentation has begun. Companies across the industry are restructuring, merging and acquiring in order to adjust their portfolio, enable a complete platform offer and establish leading positions on the market.

At the level of technology, as profitability of FEOL scaling options remains uncertain and IoT promises application diversification, the spotlight is now turning to advanced packages for:

  • Cost reduction
  • Performance boost
  • Functional integration

In order to answer market demands, the advanced packaging segment focuses on integration and wafer level packages (WLP). Emerging packages such as Fan-Out WLP, 2.5D/3D IC and related System-in-Package solutions aim to bridge the gap and revive the cost/performance curve.

How will the advanced packaging industry evolve, which changes in the semiconductor supply chain are taking place and which packaging technologies will be most critical in the years to come? In this report, Yole Developpement (Yole) brings a thorough analysis of the advanced packaging industry and its future development covering platforms Fan-Out WLP, Fan-In WLP, Flip Chip and 2.5D / 3D.

 

Advanced Packaging will reach 44% of packaging services and a revenue of $30B by 2020

According to Yole Développement estimates, advanced packaging services revenue will increase by  $9.8B from 2014 to 2020 at a CAGR of 7%, in majority due to high volume adoption of Fan-Out WLP, 2.5D / 3D and evolution and growth of Fan-In WLP and Flip-Chip. Advanced packages currently account for 38% of all packaging services or $20.2B and are expected to grow share to 44% and $30B by 2020.

Revenue forecast by Advanced Packaging platform 2014 2020 v2
 

The mobile sector remains the main advanced packaging market with smartphones and tablets as end products. Other high volume applications include servers, PC, game stations, HDD/USB, WiFi hardware, base stations, TVs and set top boxes. The scent of IoT is spreading with first products already on the market in the form of wearables and smart home appliances. Further early stage investments are made in sectors such as smart cities, connected cars, various industrial devices and medical applications.

Identification of smartphone WLPs

The Flip-Chip platform represents a large mature market and leads in packaging services revenue and wafer count.  Fan-In WLP leads in unit count due to small size compared to demanded volume. Adoption of wafer level packages continues. Teardowns performed by Yole and its sister company, System Plus Consulting on 3 high end smartphones (iPhone 6+, Samsung Galaxy S6 and Huawei Ascend Mate 7) indicated a high penetration rate of WLP, 30% on average. Fan-Out WLP is expected to make a major breakthrough within the next year, likely led by TSMC inFO PoP and followed by other Fan-Out multi die solutions. Long term, a bright future lies ahead for wafer level packages with respect to IoT requirements as they are well position to answer related cost, form and functional integration demands. When it comes to advanced feature sizes, a competitive sub 10 µm / 10 µm arena is established where organic wafer level packages aggressively compete with advanced organic Flip-Chip substrates and 2.5D / 3D Si/glass interposers.

2016 Advanced Packaging wafer share including IDMs and foundries

As WLP pin counts grow, thicknesses and overall cost decrease, the evolution of Fan-In WLP and in particular a breakthrough of Fan-Out WLP are expected to result in a takeover of a part of the Flip Chip market. With the breakthrough of Fan-Out WLP, the packaging landscape might drastically change, with an IDM and foundry leading all packaging services by wafer count.

A full analysis is available in the report including revenue, wafer and unit forecasts per advanced packaging platform and production breakdown by device type such as analog/mixed signal, wireless/RF, logic and memory, CMOS image sensors, MEMS, LED and LCD display drivers.

Advanced Packaging supply chain – the end of OSATs as we know today?  
The semiconductor industry worth $335B in annual revenue is the spine of the mobile sector and is now transforming itself to be the hardware enabler of the IoT age.  Due to cost pressures and portfolio completion, high M&A activity is in progress with record breaking deals and a whopping $120B already spent in 2015 alone - more than the last 10 years combined! How is the semiconductor business landscape and in particular advanced packaging landscape changing, who are the leaders, what is their activity by packaging platform and are IDMs and foundries taking over advanced packaging? Get the thorough analysis in this report!

Financial insights semiconductor supply chain by gross margin

Furthermore, this report brings a financial analysis with insight into gross margins, R&D expenses, net incomes and related industry segmentation. Advanced packages are also segmented by package features such as pin count, pitch, thickness, footprint, price with included analysis of their feature trends. A specialized section is dedicated to the breakthrough of Fan-Out WLP with revenue, wafer and unit forecasts until 2020 and high volume adoption of the 2.5 / 3D platform.

The advanced packaging industry is facing complex market and technology transformations, but is propelled by strong drivers perpetually increasing demand. With advanced packaging platforms still building on the smartphone market and new IoT driven applications on the horizon, leftover capacity in 2014 is forecasted to be exceeded by 6 times by 2020!  Regarding wafer size, majority of advanced packages are still processed on 200 mm wafers, however, if total wafer surface is taken into account, processing on 300 mm wafers is dominant.

Distribution of Advanced Packaging platforms in mobile devices 

Objectives of the Report
To provide a high level market overview of the Advanced Packaging landscape

  • Identify Advanced Packaging drivers and trends
  • Current status and forecasts until 2020: Revenue, wafer count, unit count
  • Identify main players and provide supply chain analysis
  • Market shares by business model, wafer size and applications
  • Financial insight and related industry segmentation

To provide analysis of technology trends

  • Packaging segmentation
  • Package feature trends
  • Price comparison

To assess the future development of the Advanced Packaging market

  • Outlook on potential disruptions: new market drivers, infrastructure, expanding business models, new entries, competing packaging solutions
  • Impact on supply chain and technology roadmap

 

Table of contents

Introduction, definitions & methodology 3


Scope & objectives 8
Executive summary 14
Market drivers 34
> Advanced Packaging drivers
> AP market and technology trends


Market forecasts 42


> Overview
> Smartphone split by platform and
teardowns
> Revenue forecast
> Wafer count forecast
> Unit count forecast
> IC type split per package type
> Wafer size split
> Capacity increase forecast


Players and supply hain 77


> Semiconductor industry:
   - Overview
   - Financial analysis
   - M&A activity
> Market shares
> Company split by AP platforms

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Packaging segmentation 101


> Segmentation by die to board features
> Package feature trends
> Price comparison


Reflections and case studies 124


> 2.5D / 3D adoption
   - Latest products and announcements
> FO WLP adoption
   - TSMC inFO analysis
   - eWLB latest product
> FI WLP evolution
   - Selected small pitch PMIC
> Packaging for Internet of Things
   - The semiconductor packaging business
landscape
   - Packaging requirements


Conclusion 140

Companies cited

3M
AMD
AMS
Agilent
Altera
Amkor
Analog Devices
Athena
AOI Electronics
Apple
ASE
ASML
ATMEL
AMS
Arrow Electronics
ATM Electronics
Avago
BASF
Bluegiga
Bosch
Broadcom
Capella
Carsem
Chipbond
ChipMOS
Cirrus Logic
Cisco
CSR
Cypress
Deca Technologies
Dell
Dialog
Dot Hill
Dow Chemical
EMC
Emulex
Entropic Communications
Facebook
Flip Chip International
Formosa
Freescale
Fujitsu
General Electric

 

Globalfoundries
Google
Hittite
Hon Hai
Hewlett-Packard
Huawei
Hua Capital
IDT
Infineon
Inphi
International Rectifier
Inotera
Intel
ISSI
J-Devices
JAC Capital
JCET
Lattice
King Yuan
KLA Tencor
Lam Research
Lattice Semiconductor
LB Semicon
Linear Technology
LSI
M/A-COM
Maxim
MaxLinear
MediaTek
Micrel
Microchip
Micron
Micropross
Microsemi
Nantong-Fujitsu
Nanium
NanYa
National Instruments
Nepes
Nest Labs
Nova
Nvidia
NXP


Oculus VR
Omnivision
ON Semiconductor
Orient Semiconductor
Powertech Technology
Qualcomm
Quintic
ReVera
RichTek
Samsung
SanDisk
Seagate
Shannon Systems
Siemens
Silicon Image
Silicon Labs
Silicon Motion
Skyworks
Sony
Spansion
SPIL
ST Microelectronics
STATSChipPAC
STS Semiconductor
Summitview Capital
Tessera
Texas Instruments
Tianshui Huatian
Toshiba
TSMC
Unisem
UTAC
Vanguard
Vishay
Vitesse
Walton Advanced Engineering
Western Digital
Wolfson
Xilinx
Xintec
Ziptronix
ZMDI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Covers Fan-Out WLP, Fan-In WLP, Flip-Chip and 2.5 / 3D platforms

  • High level overview of the Advanced Packaging landscape and market drivers

  • Current status and forecasts until 2020: Revenue, wafer count, unit count

  • Main players and supply chain analysis

  • Market shares by business model, wafer size and applications

  • Financial insight and related industry segmentation

  • Expected evolutions of main players’ margins

  • Analysis of packaging technology trends and related segmentation

  • Price comparison

  • Future development of the Advanced Packaging market

  • Analysis on adoption of 2.5D / 3D and Fan-Out WLP with dedicated TSMC inFO analysis and forecast

  • Outlook on potential disruptions: new market drivers, infrastructure, expanding business models, new entries, competing packaging solutions

  • Impact on supply chain and technology roadmap