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Nov 9th, 2011
A +$2 billion market for modules in EV/HEV: a big opportunity for power electronics
Yole Développement announces its reports “Power Electronics for Hybrid & Electric Vehicles”.
Yole Développement’s report is now structured in two Volumes as follows:
Yole Développement’s reports describe the supply-chain evolution and the technologies coming in Power Electronics applied to hybrid and electric cars. With these reports, car manufacturers and tier-one, can make the right partnerships with the right companies, and gain a strategic advantage.
“With this market & technology analysis, we provide the full picture and benchmark competitors and partners technical solutions”, explains Brice Le Gouic, Yole Développement.
In 2016, almost 25 million cars manufactured will be electrified, the majority of them being micro-HEV, with a low level of electrification. However, some 5 million will be full HEV, plug-in HEV or EV.
Yole Développement expects the power module market to be near $5 Billion, most made with IGBT. It is huge and will change the game in power electronics market!
But there are still some uncertainties:
Electrical architectures are chosen but supply chain keeps on changing
Car manufacturers need to keep that added value, and thus they already started covering the value-chain starting from the semiconductor die. Toyota is even deeper in the supply chain with silicon wafer production capability. GM is closer to Delphi, and they still have manufacturing available at Kokomo (US). And Yole Développement cannot forget the Chinese companies. BYD is now producing IGBTs, and many Chinese semiconductor foundries are now able to do the same.
China: market opportunity or competitive threat?
This is also an opportunity for new players. Tesla and Coda are one of those who can come and play with the big ones.
New materials for active components are envisioned and will significantly impact packaging & cooling systems
Another point of interest observed in all power electronics domains concerns packaging and module assembly. It is even more important for EV/HEV. Indeed, EV/HEV makers will gain market shares thanks to proprietary innovations, and IP, applicable to a full range of cars.
There will be amazing things done in power module packaging for EV/HEV in the next 10 years, it is only a beginning. Yole Développement expects efforts to develop and release technologies that will quickly and readily transfer to and between other energy conversion markets (PV, Wind, etc..).
Passive components are playing a more and more active role
Capacitors are becoming application specific, and design and engineering for EV/HEV is very active, starting with form factor. Film capacitor market, used in DC link, are representing 95M$ in 2011, and expected to grow of 48% each year in average. The film capacitor market is hot due to shortage. Film producers cannot produce in enough quantity. EDLC (Electric double layer capacitor) is the other hot topic. Batteries have their place in EV/HEV for long term energy storage, but when the storage/usage cycle is very short, the so called supercapacitor are more of interest. They are already placed in micro hybrid systems and may enter the EV market for regenerative braking at traffic lights. The re-use of energy would then become even more efficient. EDLC CAGR is to reach 44% for the 2010-2020 period and there are plenty of opportunities to catch.
Connectors market is also of interest. They will represent more than 8 Billion $ in 2020, including charging systems and peripherals. This huge market is not standardized yet, and thus, each manufacturer is able to bring its added value from an IP. However, several threats are onto connectors market. Others connectors makers for PV market or signal can penetrate. Competition will be very strong on a market widely driven by cost. In parallel with connectors, Yole Développement observes the evolution of internal power connections. Between power PCB, laminated busbars and molded busbars there is a choice to be made regarding the inverter architecture and the electrical needs. We see specific developments coming, as Rogers Corp. who has a solderable busbar especially for hybrid cars.
Resistor market is a bit apart from the others, quiet and without much innovation. The opportunities may be on integration: capacitor, busbars and resistors all together may represent a high added value.
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