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Jul 29th, 2013
Consolidation seen coming in the IC industry
Marcus Lentz, industry analyst for Sematech, in his presentation “Semiconductor Industry update – Inflection Coming” at the recent ConFab show in Las Vegas took a look at some “major inflections “ coming in the IC industry. Since the status of the IC industry strongly impacts the future of IC packaging.
Marcus Lentz, industry analyst for Sematech, in his presentation “Semiconductor Industry update – Inflection Coming” at the recent ConFab show in Las Vegas took a look at some “major inflections “ coming in the IC industry. Since the status of the IC industry strongly impacts the future of IC packaging. iMicronews thought it was worth …A Closer Look.
If we look at the current state of IC scaling, there are differences in when different technologies reach certain nodes.
Scaling vs year for logic, DRAM and NAND
At < 20nm nodes lithography dominates costs.
Lithography will dominate future nodes
Silicon wafer suppliers vs wafer diameter
The same consolidation is happening to equipment suppliers as shown in the chart below . Each color represents a different vendor and the dark grey area represents multiple small suppliers. As of 2012 many of the market segments have 1 to 3 suppliers with combined > 80% market share ; several segments have 2 suppliers with > 90% market share and two segments have 1 supplier with > 75% share.
2012 front end semi Equipment share
Intel has projected that 450mm will follow the previous trend of decreasing scaling costs.
Intel projects that 450mm will lower scaling costs
Lentz sees “Business financials limiting the number of companies that might play [in 450mm]. Meaning yearly revenue is not large enough to build the required > $6B fabs. He projects initially 4 early adopters with 8 – 12 eventual players . Many of those may be joint ventures to help offset the initial cost of the fabs.
With diameters increasing, the number of semiconductor fab owners is decreasing
Consolidation is one of the basic expectations for a maturing industry. It is clear that the IC industry is in a significant consolidation mode. These trends can be expected to have a similar influence on the packaging community as well.
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