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Jan 30th, 2014
The semiconductor industry in 2020: a closer look
At the recent Semi Industry Strategy Symp (ISS) in Half Moon Bay CA a few weeks ago, Handel Jones from Int Business Strategies (IBS) addressed how the semiconductor industry will look out to 2020. i-Micronews thought this presentation was worth…A Closer Look.
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The IBIS roadmap for semiconductors by product type is shown below :

Semiconductor Market by Product


IBIS reported that  growth in 2013 was mainly due to an increase on memory pricing. They expect Capex decreases in 2014 (small decline)  and 2015 (large decline).
While there is uncertainty in the timing for scaleup of 20 and 16 nodes, by 2020 IBIS expects greater than ½ semi sales will come from 32nm node and below.

 Foundry Market by Feature Dimension


They project that demand for the latest technology node wafer production  ( 20nm + 16/14nm) will be concentrated in the hands of 5 players.

Wafer Consumption by Node

Low power and low cost will dominate the application space for 32nm or less devices.

Application Environment at 32nm or less

IBIS continues to predict that cost/gate is now increasing and thus is no longer an economic driver (for same wafer size) to move to the next node.

IBIS further predicts that:
- 28nm will have long lifetime ( Probability 80% )
- 20nm yields will improve, and  will be high volume technology node in 2015 and 2016 (Probability 50%)
- 16/14nm will provide low cost gates and support high bandwidth interfaces in SoC environment (Probability 20% in 2016 and 50% in 2017)
- 10nm will likely be postponed, cost per gate will be prohibitive and unclear as to demand other than high speed processors and FPGAs (Probability 90%) .



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