The Semiconductor manufacturing industry is today facing more than ever the challenge to explore the so-called More-than-Moore 3-D integration route in order to pursue the continued aggressive scaling of the historical Moores Law. The whole Semiconductor industry supply chain is being concerned: from IDMs to Fabless and CMOS foundries, from OSATs to Substrate and Circuit Assembly players as well.
We believe 3D integration with TSVs could accelerate even more current consolidation happening in CMOS wafer fabs and the shift toward a fabless foundry model. As the whole industry supply chain is being concerned, all players are at the moment positioning on the technology and evaluating about which 3-D technology platforms need to be invested and developed for their own business.
Times are bright for packagers from all across the world. A whole new infrastructure needs to be developed in the "Mid-end" of the semiconductor industry supply chain. New Technologies, Equipments and Advanced Materials coming both from the Front-end and the Back-end worlds are being developed and will give rise to a new revival of the semiconductor packaging and circuit assembly industries. Our latest market forecasts show that 3D-TSV wafers will be shipped in millions and have the potential to impact as much as 25% of the memory business by 2015. If we exclude memories, our analysis show that 3D-TSV wafers could account for more than 6% of the total semiconductor industry by 2015.
- This new study aims at giving a better understanding about the right timeline for the successful adoption of the Through Silicon Via (3-D TSV interconnect) technology across the wide range of its driving end-applications. The two reports further quantify the potential impact of 3-D technologies on the semiconductor manufacturing market (at the Device / Equipment / Material levels) and evaluate how the industry supply chain is likely to evolve in the 2009-2015 time frames.
We believe that different 3-D technology platforms need to be developed as they will serve different application needs and will correspond to different players in the supply chain:
o 3-D WLP Encapsulation platform is today already in production in CMOS image sensors with via through the backside of the wafer. It will expand to Power amplifier modules as well. MEMS package are more complex as most of these applications will need a full-hermetic cavity through the use of getters and more specialized bonding technologies.
o 3-D TSV Stack platform is being primarily developed for stacked memories and logic 3D-SOCs later on. If via-last will account for a large portion of the market, we see a clear trend towards via-first configurations and smaller vias size approaching 1-5um diameters with 500-2000 interconnects per chip typically.
o 3-D interposer Module platform is already in very small production for several MEMS applications in order to combine the ASIC & MEMS chips together in a true WLP approach (The silicon interposer acts here in direct replacement of the organic substrate). This technology platform is likely to expand rapidly into many SiP application spaces.
Technology Roadmaps:
WL-CSP CMOS image sensors are on the point to leave their traditional edge interconnects configuration for going to "real" 3D-TSV architectures as soon as 2008. Vias will be partially or completely filled, depending on via filling approach being developed. We clearly see the number of I/Os expanding to several hundreds of interconnects per chip with a trend to stack vertically the DSP chips under the 3D WL-CSP image sensor itself.
MEMS will also take benefit from 3-D in order to combine the MEMS with its ASIC while Wireless SiPs will combine heterogeneous layers all together (built on different lithography nodes, different material substrates such as Si, GaAs, SiGe...).
The market for 3-D stacked memories is imminent: it is primarily driven by RAM memories first meanwhile more and more Flash memories are set to be combined in the future within MCP, PoP/SiP packages, cell-phone card-slots and SSDs. The question is now more about who will succeed to develop first the lowest cost process and will take the risk of the huge initial infrastructure investment required. Going further, Logic based 3D-SOCs are to set to take-off in the 2-3 years time frame for different applications. Indeed, this "true" type of 3D-IC integration will be achieved through the progressive segregation of several layers: 3D Partitioning of embedded memories, RF, Analog and I/Os layers from the logic base chip will be achieved in the most cost effective manner by reducing overall chip size areas.
Barriers to entry for full scale 3D IC integration include Test, 3D EDA Design tools, Thermal management and 300mm equipments availability.
Regarding Test, issues are closed to be solved as many solutions are currently being developed and evaluated (double-side probe stations, BIST with JTAG, interconnect redundancies...). Many contact-less testing technologies and equipments (based on optical or wireless methods) have emerged for wafer surface inspection/ metrology, open/shorts electrical testing and 3-D System level functionality validation.
The landscape is completely different regarding the availability of 3D EDA Design and Thermal Management software tools. We are seeing a lot of effort being done in this area at the moment. However, we believe it is a real challenge for the industry to get the tools ready by 2011.
- Our latest analysis shows that the Equipment Market for 3D-TSV manufacturing tools will rapidly expand above 1B$ by 2013. 3D-TSV Equipment forecasts have been realized over the 2006-2015 time period both in units and in M$.
They include shipments and sales forecasts for Wafer Bonders / Chip Bonders / Etching-Drilling / Plating / Lithography / Deposition-Coating / Temporary Bonding / Grinding-Thinning / Inspection & Metrology / Test tools.
Meanwhile, the 3D-TSV Market for Advanced Materials is forecasted to break the 1B$ volume by 2015. Our analysis include sales in Volume and in M$ for Advanced Photo-resists / Adhesives / Gas / Advanced Substrates and Specific Chemistries.
Players listed in the report:
3D-Plus, 3M, Ablestik, Accretech, Alcatel, All-via, Altera, Ajisso, Alchimer, AMD, Alps Electric, Amkor, Anteryon, Applied Materials, ASML, ASE, Aviza, ASET, ASM International, Atotech, Avago technologies, Ayumi Industries, AZ Electronics, Beamind, Brewer Science, Chartered Semiconductor, Dalsa Semiconductor, Datacon, Disco, Dow Corning, DuPont Electronics, Dynatex, E2V, Ebara, Elpida memories, EM Microelectronics, Enthone, ETRI, EVGroup, Fraunhofer IZM, Fraunhofer ISIT, Komatsu, Freescale, Fujikura, Fujitsu, Fujimi, Gemalto, Heptagon, Hitachi, Hymite, Hynix Semiconductor, Ibiden, IBM, Indium Corporation, IMEC, IMT, Infineon, Intel, ITRI, LAM Research, Leti, Lintec, Matsushita Electric Works, MagnaChip, Micron, MicroResist, MicroChem, Mitsui, Nanya, NEC Electronics, NEC Schott JV, Nemotek, Nexx, Nextreme, Nitto Denko, Nokia, Numonyx, NXP, Oki Electric, OMG Ultra Pure Chemicals, Panasonic, Philips Applied Technologies, Plan Optik, Process Partner International, Promerus, PVA Tepla, Qualcomm, Qimonda, R3Logic, Renesas, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Samsung, Sanyo, Sanyu-REC, Schott, Semitool, SensoNor, Sharp, Silex Microsystems, Sekisui, Sematech, Shinko Electric, Sony, SPIL, STATSChipPac, STMicroelectronics, STS, SMIC, Shin-Etsu, Skyworks, Solvision, SάSS Microtec, Synova, Tegal, Tessera, Texas Instruments, TSMC, Tezzaron, Toshiba, Tokyo Electron, Tohoku University, TOK, TSMC, UMC, UTAC, Uyemera, VTI Technologies, VTT Technology, Vertical Circuits, Xintec, Xsil, Xilinx, Ziptronix, ZyCube.
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This new yole report focuses on the devices and systems that will benefit from this new technology