Is there a life for bulk GaN substrate out of the blue laser diode business? How will material price decline open new doors in lighting and power applications?

From blue lasers to lighting and power electronics

Today bulk or Free-Standing (FS) GaN substrate market is mostly driven by the blue laser diode production only and its related application in high-density data storage. This market is driven by strong demand for Bluray players and game stations.

From 2011 and most likely 2012, Ultra-High Brightness (UHB) LEDs will start taking part of the bulk-GaN production. That will only be possible with a sharp drop in bulk-GaN prices. We forecast that the critical threshold is below $1,500 for a 2" "LED-grade" substrate. Only such a price level will act as leverage for LED market take-off. 2012-2013 will also see the introduction of new power devices based on bulk-GaN.

Again, here, that is strongly linked to the pricing of bulk-GaN that will have to compete with 4" and future 6" SiC offer and GaN-on-Silicon alternate technology.

Lack of bulk material pushes for ELO technique

Market is now essentially centered on free-standing material but the shortage of this product has to be compensated by the use of home-made ELO-GaN on sapphire substrates. We assume about 28% of LD was made on ELO-GaN in 2008. This percentage will decrease a little but will stay significant by 2012.

Asia dominates the substrate business but EU and US exhibit credible challengers

The main free-standing producer remains Sumitomo, mostly supplying Nichia and Sony for laser production. Others challengers such as Hitachi-cable (now sampling 3" wafers) or Mitsubishi Chemical are becoming more and more present.

In Europe, LumiLOG, now part of Saint-Gobain group, is fine-tuning its product line-up for the LED illumination business; Ammono and TopGaN are improving their strong expertise in low dislocation density crystals.

US is mainly focusing on non or semi-polar material, with Kyma, Inlustra Technologies or Oxford Instruments (TDI).  

By 2015, bulk GaN for LED will dominate the substrate market in volume

2" substrates production volume could reach about 100,000 units by 2010, leading to a relative $240M market for both free-standing and ELO. Beyond 2013, the growing demand for bulk GaN in LED lighting applications will rapidly dominates the market in volume

This report presents the detailed major market metrics of the current and projected bulk / free-standing GaN substrate business, describing the targeted applications, the key players, the volumes and related market size of each segment. It gives the possible total accessible market for GaN substrates, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of this technology over the current established epiwafer or ELO technologies. It describes the recent progress in crystalline quality as well as the new challenges offered by non-polar and semi-polar GaN material

Benefits of the report for equipment and material manufacturers:

• Analysis of the structure of the bulk GaN industry and evolution of the industrial food chain
• Calculation of wafer volumes to be produced for each market segments: Laser, Power, LED...
• Breakdown Free-Standing / ELO usage in blue lasers

Benefits of the report for the GaN devices manufacturers:

• Analysis of the current applications and detailed analysis of the future businesses
• Analysis of the competition from large companies to small start up
• Volumes and prices forecasts
• Alternative solutions analysis to the use of GaN devices

• Executive summary

 • Latest noteworthy news

 – Sensitivity to dislocation density in the active layer for various nitride devices. Roadmap to 2015
– Time-to-market for different GaN substrates in various applications

 • Blue laser diodes market
– Blue laser diodes market requirements and current status
 – Targeted applications for GaN blue laser diodes
 – Blue laser diodes market in game stations
 – 2005-2015 annual volumes for GaN blue laser diodes for various applications and related device revenues
 – GaN-based laser diodes state-of-the-art
 – Recent developments of non-polar based blue LD
 – Non-polar R&D program at DARPA: VIGIL
 – US DoE: SSL Core Technology and Product Development Funding Opportunities (Round 5)
 – Known supply-chain in the blue LD business
 – 2008 Blue LD cost breakdown model
 – From 2” bulk GaN wafer to packaged LD
 – From 2” ELO GaN wafer to packaged LD
 – Blue LD manufacturing yield
 – 2005-2015 annual volume of 2” substrates (split by free-standing and ELO-GaN) for blue LD and related revenues
 – Data processing details for 2005-2015 substrates calculation
 – 2008 substrate usage volume per company, split by type (FS / ELO)
 – Estimated 2008 market share of Blue Laser Diode makers
 – Conclusion

 • Ultra-High Brightness Nitride LED market
 – Number of lumens for various applications. time-to-market for mass-production
 – Market segmentation
 – LED market volume as a function of LED type
 – LED market revenues as a function of LED type
 – LED market volume as a function of LED type
 – LED market revenues as a function of LED type
 – 2001-2012 GaN-LED market. status and forecast for packaged LED devices
 – Projection of the General Illumination business
 – Worldwide Lighting Estimates
 – Evolution of GaN-based white LEDs needs for general lighting
 – Market estimation for White-LEDs for general illumination
 – Wafer needs for general illumination (2” equivalent wafers, million units)
 – GaN-based UHB LED market in volume to 2015
 – Market volume and size of bulk-GaN substrates for UHB LEDs to 2015
 – Current status of the LED performance and related technologies: How bulk GaN can help enhancing performance...?
 – Main manufacturing steps and related options for GaN-based LED
 – Main manufacturing steps and related options for GaN-based LED
 – Examples of current LED companies process flow-chart (in production or R&D)
 – LED: lateral or vertical structures – Impact of substrate choice on packaged LED final cost
 – Global LED efficiency is the ratio of the final luminous output power over the wall-plug input power
 – Internal QE has now reached ~73% for low power LED (I=20mA)…
 – … but this value significantly drops as the current increases !
 – How is the input power dissipated?v1.1 Watt HB-LED generates ¾ in heat vs. ¼ in light !
 – Average LED optical output power vs. heat generation at different current levels
 – Extraction efficiency (ηextr.) is strongly linked to the die size….
 – How to improve white LED efficiency?vDifferent options to optimize LED performance
 – Expected efficiency gains for the future generation of white power-LEDs
 – Influence of selected improvements on the four key efficiency parameters
 – The perfect white LED would include…
 – Conclusion

 • Power Electronics: How bulk-GaN could take market shares over SiC?
 – Possible applications for GaN devices in power electronics
 – GaN vs. SiC SWOT analysis
 – Top-20 power electronics company revenues
 – Market projection for GaN devices in various applications 2005-2015
 – Relative market shares of GaN applications to 2015
 – Main applications accessible to SiC and GaN Specs / market data of current silicon devices  
 – Focus on Power Factor Corrector Market A target for both SiC and GaN
 • PFC market main metrics
 • GaN main added-value in PFC circuits
 • PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
 • TOP 15 OEM power supply manufacturers and related involvement in SiC & GaN
 • GaN device main market requirements for PFC applications
 • Sales projection for HEV to 2015 in million units
 • 2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter
 • The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV (according to Toyota)
 • Added value analysis of GaN electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and money savings
 • HEV inverter module cost breakdown
 • Silicon vs. GaN HEV inverter cost breakdown
 – Inverters for solar panels
 • Annual production of solar cells in GW, breakdown by technology
 • Volume and market of PV inverters split by type 2005-2019
 • Market size of (IGBT + diode) packs for PV split by 2005-2019
 • Device market for PV inverters. % of GaN market penetration and related size
 – Market volume and size of bulk-GaN substrates for power electronics to 2015
 – Conclusion

 • Recent GaN power device developments
 – Matsushita MEI / Panasonic GaN high-voltage “Natural Super Junction”diode
 – Example of AlGaN/GaN HEMT by Toyota R&D Lab (J)
 – Example of 5” GaN-on-Si FET by Sanken Electric (J)
 – Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST) GaN-on-Si integrated diode + transistor
 – International Rectifier GaNpowIR™ technology platform
 – Total Accessible Market for GaN-based power devices in volume. Will be shared by SiC and GaN !
 • FS GaN and ELO GaN market status
 – Recent known funding in GaN material development
 – 2 options for blue laser substrates: Free-standing vs. ELO GaN
 – Bulk / free-standing GaN specifications: 2008 production status
 – Bulk / free-standing GaN specifications: R&D status
 – Non-polar & semi-polar GaN main interests
 – Non-polar & semi-polar GaN substrates R&D status
 – Tentative roadmap of non or semi-polar GaN substrate size to 2020
 – Bulk / free-standing GaN wafers Estimated monthly production capacity
 – Overall FS GaN and ELO GaN market volume in various applications to 2015
 – Overall FS GaN and ELO GaN market size in various applications to 2015

 • Conclusion on free-standing and ELO substrates business

 • General conclusion

 • Annexes