Volume 1 - ACTIVE Components,
Market and technology report - November 2011
New materials for active components will significantly impact packaging & cooling systems
a +$2 billion market for modules: a big opportunity for power electronics
In 2016, almost 25 million cars manufactured will be electrified, the majority of them being micro-HEV, with a low level of electrification. However, some 5 million will be full HEV, plug-in HEV or EV.
As a consequence, electric vehicles (EV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) will represent the biggest accessible market for power device and system makers. Without getting completely mature, the EV/HEV industry has seen its first steps toward standardization. Electrical configuration shows a preference for parallel and split structures. Following the same logic, DC/DC boost converters and DC/AC inverters architecture for full HEV and EV are adopted. Getting the best switch at the lowest cost is a must. IGBT will continue having a bright future in hybrid and electric cars.
We expect the power module market to be near $5 Billion, most made with IGBT. It is huge and will change the game in power electronics market!
But there are still some uncertainties:
What about new power semiconductor device adoption?
Which materials will be preferred?
What are the consequences on the rest of the powertrain? Cooling? Integration? Connectivity? Passives?
What are the consequences on the supply chain?
ELECTRICAL ARCHITECTURES ARE CHOSEN BUT SUPPLY CHAIN KEEPS ON CHANGING
The powertrain supply chain is being absorbed by car makers on one side and power device module makers on the other, leaving few free space to tier one suppliers. The supply-chain is literally changing. With EV/HEV, the traction’s main part becomes the inverter and the motor. We will experience great improvements with innovative switches, inverter designs and topology, regenerative braking etc…
Car manufacturers need to keep that added value, and thus they already started covering the value-chain starting from the semiconductor die. Toyota is even deeper in the supply chain with silicon wafer production capability. GM is closer to Delphi, and they still have manufacturing available at Kokomo (US). And we can’t forget the Chinese companies. BYD is now producing IGBTs, and many Chinese semiconductor foundries are now able to do the same.
CHINA: MARKET OPPORTUNITY OR COMPETITIVE THREAT?
China will soon have enough experience to enter foreign markets. The companies in an uncertain position are the European ones: Volkswagen, PSA or Daimler do not have such advantages, and may play with their tier-ones (Valeo, Continental, etc…).
This is also an opportunity for new players. Tesla and Coda are one of those who can come and play with the big ones.
In addition, Chinese companies, supported by the Chinese government already benefit from big car brands and electrified transportation platform to first protect the local market from Occidental and Japanese ones and then expand abroad.
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS: ACTIVE, PASSIVES AND SYSTEM INTEGRATION
Technology wise, we see a common interest from car manufacturers in active and passive devices since there is a global need for integration. Moreover, decisions on the former will have consequences on the latter.
In addition, passive device manufacturers are beginning to understand the overall consequences of semiconductor improvement on their business .
The challenges are related yet very different. Therefore, this report is structured in two Volumes as follows:
A newly-organized full market overview section which is common to both volumes.
Volume 1 details active devices: IGBTs, Super Junction MOSFETs, SiC and GaN-based devices, from the system down to the wafers
Volume 2 details passive devices: resistors, capacitors, connectors, from the system down to the wafers
NEW MATERIALS FOR ACTIVE COMPONENTS ARE ENVISIONED AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT PACKAGING & COOLING SYSTEMS
SiC will be part of the game, but not for today. It will bring high efficiency at even higher cost! We expect to reach 41,3M$ market, a drop in the bucket but a huge potential (39% CAGR 15-20). GaN will struggle at lower power, being the high-end part of micro and mild hybrid. The technology will face advanced Silicon devices such as super junction MOSFETs. However, the future of compound semiconductor in power electronics depends on new developments, and a sudden breakthrough can easily make any existing roadmap obsolete.
Another point of interest observed in all power electronics domains concerns packaging and module assembly. It is even more important for EV/HEV. Indeed, EV/HEV makers will gain market shares thanks to proprietary innovations, and IP, applicable to a full range of cars.
Toyota started field testing flip-chip modules with double sided cooling in 2008 but in 2010 they went back to classical assembly (DBC one side cooling) and small touch of improvements (Al ribbon bonding and direct cooling). All other players are working hard: Delphi with its Viper module and Mitsubishi developing IPMs.
There will be amazing things done in power module packaging for EV/HEV in the next 10 years, it is only a beginning. We expect efforts to develop and release technologies that will quickly and readily transfer to and between other energy conversion markets (PV, Wind, etc..).
WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT?
Car manufacturers and tier-one
Understand the supply-chain evolution and the technologies coming
Make the right partnerships with the right companies, and gain a strategic advantage
Understand your new market and plan your business expansion
Power electronics players: material, equipment, device and module market players
Get the full picture and benchmark competitors and partners technical solutions
Understand the value-chain and its evolutions
Take the right decisions and position yourself in tough market