A 5 Billion power module market in 2020

Toyota, the world leading car producer, has been dominant on the hybrid market up to now, but this niche market is becoming a must for car makers as the focus on car C02 emissions intensifies. Hybrid is defined in different levels: micro, mild, full, and plug in hybrid.

Micro hybrid will see the highest growth due to its low cost and easy integration, specifically in Europe. Mild and full hybrid will continue their strong penetration in the US market. Plug-in hybrid is a bridge to EV technology, and uses the same high voltage battery technology and plug-to-grid for recharge.

EV car business will really ramp up in 2010 with the arrival of big car makers (Mitsubishi, Renault, GM, Ford, Daimler). Limited drive range (40 miles) and high cost, are still issues, but it is expected that huge investments in new Li-Ion batteries will increase the performance/cost ratio of EVs. Globally, more than 17 million cars will be hybrid or electric in 2015 and some forecasters suggest sales will reach 50 million units in 2020, meaning half of the cars produced.

Power electronics are a key technology for hybrids and represent 20% of the material costs. It is even bigger for EV cars. HEV/EV power devices are used in DC/DC converters and DC/AC inverters. There are various configurations depending on the hybrid version and car makers’ choices.

Inverters are roughly the same for full hybrid, plug in hybrid and EV cars with an average power of 50 kW. This application alone represent 74% of the total power module market for HEV and EV cars in 2009.

IGBT is the device of choice for such high power applications and represents 80% of the total HEV/EV power module market. Standard voltage of IGBT devices is 650V but there is a trend to increase it. It is still unknown if it will be 700/800V or directly 1.2kV which is already a standard.

The HEV/EV power module market stands at $300M in 2009 and is expected to grow strongly until 2020 at a growth rate close to 30% to reach $5B in 2020. Today, the power module market is mainly dominated by Toyota who manufactures the module internally. With the near universal involvement of other car makers, semiconductor companies (Infineon, Fuji, Mitsubishi, STM…) will enter the market and will take a big market share in the power device pie.

As HEV and EV remain expensive, car makers and tier one suppliers want to cut the cost. Power modules represent about 50% of the inverter and converter cost so power module cost reduction is the main goal of all the market players. It is expected that the power module average cost will be reduced by more than 25% in the coming years.

HEV/EV power devices value chain

Up to now, Toyota was dominating the HEV market and power module value chain. With the market growth and arrival of many players at the different levels (car makers, tier one suppliers, semi conductor companies), the landscape will change drastically.

Automotive tier one suppliers invest heavily in HEV/EV powertrain and will play an important role in HEV/EV power devices value chain: Bosch, Continental, Valeo, Delphi, Denso, Hitachi…. They have the knowledge of specific automotive requirements that are very stringent for power devices. Some of them design the power modules themselves to cut the cost.

At the same time, semi conductor companies try to climb the value chain by developing new power modules. Hence, it will be a hard time in the next years for power modules manufacturers to find a significant place on the HEV/EV market.

SiC and GaN : key technologies for HEV/EV power device applications?

Several companies (Mitsubishi, Rohm, Toyota, …) have developed inverter prototypes based on SiC diodes and switches that show significant size reduction up to ¼ of the size with silicon devices.

SiC has clear advantages in HEV/EV applications (better power density, less losses, higher operating temperature) but cost pressure for automotive is a big challenge. To succeed, the availability of SiC switches is paramount because it would allow reduction of the cooling systems cost.

At the same time, SiC devices cost would need to be significantly reduced and the passive components and packaging adapted to support high operating temperatures.

If the SiC devices cost can be reduced, then SiC may be an option for HEV and EV. Maybe, it will be introduced first in EV applications that are more sensitive to losses to gain distance range.

GaN is another possible option thanks to its better performance/cost ratio compared to SiC. Toyota and many other companies evaluate this solution and consider that if SiC cost can’t be reduce, it would be an affordable substrate specially for inverter application that is very cost sensitive.

This report presents the detailed major market metrics of the current and projected HEV/EV power module, power devices and substrate business, describing the HEV/EV market and architecture, the power devices applications, the key players, the supply-chain, the volumes and related market size of each segment. It gives the possible total accessible market for SiC and GaN, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of those materials over the current established silicon technologies.

Company index

A123 System, AIST, APEI, Aptera Motors, BMW, Bosch, Citroen, Cobasys, Continental, CREE, Daimler Chrysler, Danfoss, Delphi, Delta Q, Dodge, Dong Energy, Dow Corning, EDF, Fairchild, Fiat, Fisker Automotive, Ford, Fraunhofer IISB, Fujitsu, Furukawa, GeneSiC, GM, GSYuasa, Hitachi, Honda, Hyundai, Infineon, International Rectifier, Johnson & Johnson, Kia, LG Chem, Magna, Magneti Marelli, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, NEC, Nissan, Oak Ridge National Lab., Panasonic, PSA, Renault, Reva, Rockwell, Rohm, Sanken, SatCon, SB LiMotive, Semikron, SemiSouth, Shindengen, SiCed, STM, Tata, TDK, Tesla, Think, Toshiba, Toyota, TranSiC, Valeo, Vincotech, Volvo, VW

For Power Device and module makers:

• A market quantification to 2020 for devices and modules
• A precise outlook of the technologies under development
• A segmentation of possible applications and linked impact for the business

For car makers:

• A projection to 2020 of the EV/HEV business
• An exhaustive list of possible technology providers
• A cost analysis of the electric power train with several options

Methodology, limitations and Yole proprietary tools

Glossary

Executive summary                                                                                       p5

·         HEV types and availability: Micro, Mild, Full, plug in Hybrid and Electric

·         HEV/EV incremental cost, versus benefit

·         HEV/EV principles : a wide and complex range of functionalities

·         HEV/EV configurations and power devices applications

·         HEV/EV power electronics applications : devices types and power level

·         Power module value in $ per hybrid application in 2009

·         EV and HEV annual demand forecast to 2020 in Munits Split: Micro Hybrid and others EV/HEV

·         Power module price roadmap split by HEV/EV application

·         Power module revenues in $M for HEV/EV applications to 2020

·         IGBT and MOSFET power modules revenues by applications

·         Silicon wafers consumption forecast for HEV/EV power modules (Munits of 6” equiv.)

Power electronics applications in HEV/EV                                                     p18

·         Bill of Material in HEV complete electric power-train

·         Current device technologies in use

·         Micro Hybrid start-stop

·         Mild Hybrid converters and inverters

·         DC/DC converter 14 V (full hybrid + plug in + EV)

·         DC/AC inverter + DC/DC booster option (full hybrid, plug-in, EV)

·         Plug In and EV battery charger (AC/DC)

HEV Market                                                                                                    p26

·         Top 20 motor vehicle companies in 2008

·         Hybrid car sales today

·         Industry involvement:  HEV car manufacturers

·         Worldwide hybrid car projections: Geographical trends

·         Hybrid car launch: 47 available models expected for 2011

HEV/EV Market                                                                                              p32

·         Electric technology

·         Plug-in HEV (PHEV): a bridge technology to EV

·         Plug in HEV (PHEV) models introduction: large commercialisation after 2010

·         EV models introduction: big players in the starting blocks

·         PHEV / EV : Li Ion battery is a must…but who will afford it?

·         Key players in Li Ion batteries

·         Better place EV service provider : a solution to expensive and limited range batteries?

·         EV better place project

·         Better place EV service provider: a solution to expensive batteries?

·         EV infrastructure

·         Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) :  a possible option after 2015

·         Plug in and EV challenges

HEV architectures and power control units                                                    p45

·         Different HEV architectures: Series / Parallel / Split

·         Different HEV architectures: Toyota Prius II HEV engine cross sectional view

·         Current HEV architectures

·         Toyota Prius electric components roadmap

·         Overview of Toyota power control unit for Prius 2003

·         Overview of Toyota power control unit for Prius GS 450 h (2006)

·         Overview of Toyota power control unit (PCU) for Lexus Sedan LS 600 h (2007) manufactured by Denso (JP)

·         Honda power control unit evolution

·         GM Hybrid 2 mode solution

Power electronics challenges and industrial supply chain                             p55

·         Challenges for inverter suppliers in HEV/EV

·         Power module price roadmap split by HEV/EV

·         Example of traditional power modules design

·         Inverter cooling design: 2D approach

·         Inverter cooling design:  3D cooling new approach to save space

·          Inverter design : a trend for a stronger mechatronics integration

·         Many alliances in 2009 between car players and power players on HEV/EV power electronics

·         Industrial supply-chain and typical market prices from modules to power train

·         HEV power devices Industrial Supply-Chain: From discrete to vehicles, a worldwide coverage

·         HEV inverter module cost breakdown

·         Industrial supply-chain trends

Players, latest developments :  Automotive tier one suppliers                       p68

·         Automotive tier one suppliers position

·         European HEV tier one suppliers : BOSCH

·         European HEV tier one suppliers : CONTINENTAL

·         European HEV tier one suppliers : Valeo

·         European HEV tier one suppliers : Magna Electronics

·         US HEV tier one suppliers : Delphi 

·         Asian HEV tier one suppliers : Hitachi

·         Asian HEV tier one suppliers : Denso

SiC & GaN as Silicon substitute?                                                                   P83

·         Why SiC or GaN in cars ?

·         2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter

·         Expected improvements of SiC or GaN introduction in HEV

·         The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV

·         Roadmap for operation voltage in HEV

·         Added value analysis of SiC electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and money savings

·         Silicon vs. SiC HEV inverter cost breakdown

·         Sales projection for Silicon and SiC devices in EV/HEV inverters

·         4” and 6” SiC substrate volume projection for SiC devices in HEV

·         SiC & GaN device suppliers – car manufacturers relationships

·         SiC device voltage range covered by main companies (Prod. or R&D)

·         Example of GaN Hybrid MOS-HFET by Furukawa Electric

·         Example of GaN HEMT by Fujitsu

·         Example of GaN-based power FET by Panasonic

·         Matsushita MEI / Panasonic: 10kV GaN high-voltage HEMT

·         Matsushita MEI / Panasonic: GaN high-voltage “Natural Super Junction” diode

·         AlGaN/GaN HEMT on n-SiC by Toshiba

·         AlGaN/GaN HEMT by Toyota R&D Lab

·         5” GaN-on-Si FET by Sanken Electric

·         Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST) GaN-on-Si integrated diode + transistor

·         International Rectifier GaNpowIR™ technology platform

·         Conclusion: perspective for SiC and GaN devices in the HEV

Silicon, SiC & GaN device and module recent developments             p109

·         European players

·         Asian players

·         US players

Conclusion                                                                                                    p131

Appendix

Presentation of Yole Développement