The global IGBT market is growing, and IGBT technologies keep evolving. How will the IGBT market face the adoption of high performance WBG based devices?
HOW IS THE IGBT MARKET EVOLVING FOR DIFFERENT APPLICATIONS AND VOLTAGES?
The IGBT market represents a very promising bet for the next few years. Yole Développement expects the IGBT market to go over $5B by 2022, with the major growth coming from IGBT power modules. It will follow power electronics’ growth pattern, mainly caused by the high volume automotive market, especially for the electrification of powertrains in Electric and Hybrid Vehicles (EV/HEV). The EV/HEV sector has great growth prospects because it is still an emerging market with tremendous volume potential. The total 2016 revenue for IGBTs in EV/HEV was estimated to be $845M and it is expected to represent about 40% of the whole IGBT market by 2022.
Another big sector for IGBT is clearly motor drives, which keep on growing, thanks to aggressive regulation targets. Yole Développement forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% for motor drives from 2016 to 2022. Photovoltaics (PV) and wind are very dynamic markets with growth from huge installations being installed during the last few years. It is worth to say that China led the solar panel implementation in 2016, with an impressive 35 GW installed. Low-medium voltage 400-1700 V IGBT discrete solutions are still very appealing for consumers, grid, welding or white good applications, which comprise a quarter of the total IGBT market. The white goods market share will increase, with a CAGR of about 6% over the next five years, due the need to increase energy efficiency in the systems. In addition, Yole Développement expects discrete IGBT shipments in the transportation market to double from 2016 to 2022, mainly for avionics and marine propulsion.
In this report, Yole Développement presents its updated IGBT market forecasts, split by voltage and application. Sub-segments are also analyzed for each of the eight main power electronics applications. Moreover, this year Yole Développement added a new application section which gives more details on energy storage systems, with an explanation of why that sector will represent a bigger market share for IGBTs in the near future.
TECHNOLOGY AND PACKAGING EVOLUTION FOR IGBTS TO COUNTER THE ARRIVAL OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Since the introduction of wide band gap (WBG) technologies to the market, the big question over what will happen with silicon based devices has been the timelines. The good performance that SiC and GaN materials can afford is already creating a battlefield with existing power devices. For instance, Yole thinks that there will be applications for SiC which will impact the IGBT market, for example it is highly possible that it will take over the automotive market. However, we forecast that IGBTs will keep a significant market share in the power electronics industry and will not be replaced completely.
In fact, even if the IGBT has almost reached its technological limit, new designs and new materials can still be used to improve system performance to overcome the WBG devices arrival. In coming years, there will be new IGBT designs from Infineon, Fuji or ABB coming into the market. Packages are being improved by different manufacturers to decrease parasitics and improve system efficiency. A clear example is the introduction of the embedded techniques for discrete IGBTs and overmolded solutions for IGBT modules to reduce size or increase functional density.
Currently, IGBT manufacturers can have wide voltage ranges in their portfolios, going from 400 V to 6.5k V. The 400 V IGBTs will directly compete with MOSFETs, whereas IGBTs with voltages higher than 600 V will compete with superjunction (SJ) MOSFETs and WBG devices, which exhibit advantages over IGBTs. Lower voltage IGBTs will not be developed since they do not show any advantage compared with MOSFETs.
In this report, Yole Développement gives an insight into the technology roadmap, with detail on the different generations and packaging for both discrete and modules. It also gives an insight into why there will be competition between IGBT with WBG materials.
IGBT PLAYERS AND SUPPLY CHAIN: A WELL-ESTABLISHED BUSINESS IS ATTRACTING NEW PLAYERS
As IGBTs are mature devices, the supply chain is well established, with strong partnerships and companies well positioned in each level. Therefore, the main IGBT manufacturers that we included in our 2015 report are still in the IGBT best sellers, except ON Semiconductor, which has become one of the top five IGBT vendors after the acquisition of Fairchild at the end of 2016. However, more companies are entering the IGBT market in order to capture added value, like Starpower or Littelfuse.
The majority of the players have both discrete and module solutions in the 600-1300 V middle voltage range, which comprises more than the 60% of the global IGBT market. Only a few players work exclusively on low voltage discrete IGBTs, as Microchip or Sanken, while several players, like Mitsubishi or Hitachi, sell only module solutions. In fact, module solutions rated from 2.5k V up to 6.5k V have been well introduced in the Chinese market thanks to high-speed rail and high-power locomotive technologies.
Big players like Infineon, Fuji, ON Semiconductor or Toshiba lead in both low and medium voltage IGBT discrete and modules mainly up to 1.7k V, and Mitsubishi dominates the high voltage IGBT manufacturing from 2.5k V. This report provides an overview of updated market share, with a split between power module makers and discrete component makers. A description of the supply chain and the companies involved is also provided for each key power electronics application.
- New forecasts, extended from 2016 to 2022
- Market metrics and forecasts in units and revenues, considering bare dies, discrete components or modules, depending on the application
- Segmentation modifications, voltage splits
- Update on business models for IGBT manufacturing
- Focus on Chinese players and their business model, technology gaps, and challenges
- Focus on IGBT technologies and architectures by player, with evolution from first generation to current generation
- Roadmap and future evolution for IGBT architectures
- Focus on future evolutions for IGBT packaging and roadmap analysis, both for modules and discretes
- Impact of SiC and the automotive industry with analysis of two different penetration scenarios