2019 will see SiC adoption reach a tipping point.
MULTIPLE POSITIVE SIGNALS REVEAL THAT MARKET ADOPTION OF SiC POWER DEVICES IS GOING TO ACCELERATE
In 2016, Yole Développement said that “the SiC power business is concrete and real, with a promising outlook”. The trend has not changed in 2017. We have heard this during our discussions with industrial players, who have increasing confidence about the SiC power market. If end users were once simply curious about SiC, they are now coming to try it, building prototypes for concrete projects that could drive volumes in coming years. The added value enabled by SiC is widely understood and accepted. We are gradually going from the customer awareness and education stage to the customer trial and adoption stage. This is especially true for SiC transistors.
Besides the general positive feedback, multiple other signals reveal that the market adoption of SiC power devices is going to accelerate. In electric vehicles (xEV), the leading Chinese xEV manufacturer BYD confirmed that it is using SiC in its on-board chargers. SiC is now on the road, not only on trial. Like the xEV market, the xEV charging infrastructure market is growing fast, which will contribute to the growth SiC power device markets. Different players have confirmed the adoption of their devices in xEV charging infrastructures.
In this context, it is the third time since 2014 that we at Yole Développement have increased our forecast for SiC power semiconductors, in particular for the post-2020 period. We estimate that the total SiC device market will be worth more than $1B in 2022. Market growth is going to accelerate after 2020, with a 2020-2022 CAGR of 40%. Applications like power factor correction (PFC)/power supplies and photovoltaic (PV) inverters are driving market growth today. In the future, we expect xEV related applications, rail and others will also contribute.
This report conveys Yole Développement’s understanding of SiC implementation in different segments. It offers a comprehensive summary of SiC power device market data, broken down by application. This includes PFC/power supply, PV, xEV and its charging infrastructure, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), motor drives, wind, rail and other uses.
AN ESTABLISHED BUT EVOLVING SiC POWER DEVICE SUPPLY CHAIN
When we look back 16 years at the beginning of the commercialization of first SiC power devices, only two companies offered them: Infineon and Cree, whose power and radio-frequency device business has since been spun out as Wolfspeed. The device market landscape didn’t really evolve for the next 10 years, as SiC struggled to prove itself to the industry.rohm
The situation has taken a sharp turn since 2009-2010, with ever more device players supplying SiC diodes. As of July 2017, the total number of diode suppliers is up to 23. The total number of SiC transistor suppliers is also increasing. In particular, it is worth highlighting that from 2016 to 2017, the number of SiC MOSFET suppliers has doubled. That number will undoubtedly further increase in coming years.
As the device market has developed, an industrial supply chain has been established, from wafer to epi, chip manufacturing, and module packaging and finally reaching system end users with different business models, for example:
• Wolfspeed and Rohm Semiconductor are vertically integrated from substrate to module
• Mitsubishi Electric and Fuji Electric are vertically integrated from chip to end system
• Many other players occupy part of the supply chain.
This industrial supply chain is constantly evolving, with newcomers and quitters. In 2016-2017 in particular, Yole Développement would like to draw your attention to the following:
• At the wafer level, Dow Corning has been restructured after being acquired by Dow. The merger of Dow and Dupont now puts a question mark over the future of Dow Corning’s SiC wafer business, one of the main SiC suppliers. Also notable is the acquisition of Norstel by Chinese capital. Following the acquisition, the company is now constructing a brand-new factory in Fujian, China to expand its capacity.
• Despite the fact that Raytheon stopped its SiC foundry service in 2017, a foundry model is clearly in operation. This is helping fabless/fab-lite SiC companies to launch their products and make SiC technology more accessible to the industry. The model is currently driven by X-fab, which is supported by Power America. We are expecting other foundries to enter the market as well.
This report provides an overview of the SiC power industry, covering the value chain from material to epitaxy to module. It also outlines Yole Développement’s understanding of the market’s current dynamics and future evolution.
SiC MODULES ARE COMING
As of 2017, the SiC power market is still dominated by discrete devices, including both discrete diodes and transistors. But that situation will change. Hybrid modules are already penetrating some applications, PV for example, and full SiC modules are coming.
SiC transistors are especially advantageous for high-voltage, high-power rating applications. The markets that are going to drive SiC include rail, motor drives, xEV and inverters, which all prefer modules. We therefore expect modules to take market share. Indeed, SiC power semiconductor suppliers are taking action. If we look at the big news in the 2016-2017 period, it included the following:
• The number one power semiconductor manufacturer – Infineon – entered mass production of full SiC modules
• GE teams up with Danfoss for SiC module production
Module players are not only launching products, but also doing what they can to facilitate market adoption. For example, the announcement of new modules is frequently associated with the release of a driver electronics solution, assisting designers in surmounting the difficulties linked to the driver. Additional integrated ‘plug-and-play’ solutions known as power stacks, power assemblies or power blocks are appearing on the market. They help those end users who want to implement SiC modules in their products but do not have internal design resources or capabilities.
This report includes a detailed description of the diode, transistor, and module product landscape. It covers the chip market, split between diodes and transistors, and the device market, split between discrete diodes, discrete transistors, hybrid modules and full SiC modules. This report also provides an analysis of the device market as a function of voltage.
Objectives of the Report
This report’s objectives are to:
- Detail SiC’s penetration in different applications including PFC/power supply, PV, xEV, xEV charging infrastructure, UPS, motor drive, wind and rail
- Showcase state-of-the-art SiC-based devices, modules, and power stacks, including a product chart for each
- Provide an overview of the SiC power industrial landscape from materials to systems, and discuss SiC power market dynamics
- Offer a market value projection for the SiC power device market through 2022 split between transistors and diodes, by application, and between discretes and modules
- Give an analysis of SiC power device as function of the device voltage
- Include a projection for the SiC substrate market through 2022
- Reveal the SiC power market roadmap
- Market size estimation for discrete diodes, diodes in hybrid modules, discrete transistors and full SiC modules
- Market size estimation of diode and transistor chip market without packaging
- Voltage analysis of SiC power devices covering 650V, 1200V, 1700V and >1700V
- Update of our SiC power report with the newest market development and technology trends
- A new chapter about xEV charging infrastructure
- Updated product charts for SiC diodes, transistors, and modules