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Sensors for Robotic Vehicles 2018
Feb.2018

robotic_vehicle_sensor_volume_revenue_forecast_yole_i-micronews_bd_807637541
6 490 €

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Description

couv flyer robotic vehicle

High end industrial sensors will win in the emerging robotic vehicle industry.

The robotic vehicle supply chain is now starting

Announcements are piling up from companies like Waymo, Uber, Lyft, Baidu and their automotive manufacturing partners such as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Mercedes, BMW and Renault-Nissan. 2018 will most probably be the initial launch year for robotic taxis in several cities around the globe. The move has direct consequences for technology providers in high-end sensing and computing equipment. The vehicle count that we can collect suggests several tens of thousands of vehicles on the road worldwide before end of 2022. As far as we know, each robotic vehicle will be equipped with a suite of sensors encompassing Lidars, radars, cameras, Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The technology is ready and the business models associated with autonomous driving (AD) seem to match the average selling prices for those sensors. We therefore expect exponential growth of AD technology within the next 15 years, leading to a total paradigm shift in the transportation ecosystem by 2032. This will have huge consequences for high-end sensor and computing semiconductor players and the associated system-level ecosystems as well.

This report depicts a vision of the transformations at stake and the consequences within the sensor and perception computing ecosystems. Most established players are ready to benefit from the huge expansion ahead. That includes Velodyne, Ibeo, Quanergy and Innoviz for Lidars, Continental, Delphi, and Denso for radars, Allied Vision, FLIR and First Sensor for cameras, and KVH, Physical Logic and Honeywell for IMUs. In the realm of AD computing Intel and Nvidia are the heavyweights, along with Xilinx and Renesas. Most of those players will play a significant initial role but there will be a window of opportunity for many other technology providers. Given the size of the opportunity, an enormous amount of capital has already been raised and will be necessary for what is set to be a hardware-based software revolution.

Robotic vehicle technology main players sensor suites

Sensors for robotic vehicles will become industries of their own

Growth rates are expected to be  impressive. In 2017 production of robotic vehicles was in the range of a few hundred worldwide. We expect production volumes to reach 23.1M units annually, with cumulative production of 10.5M units, by 2032. That’s market growth in excess of 2,500-fold, or 58% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next 15 years. By then, the total revenue associated with the production of robotic vehicles will reach $300B. 52% of that figure will originate from the vehicles themselves, 26% will come from sensing hardware, 17% from computing hardware and the remaining 5% will be from integration. This means that within 15 years complete industries will be structured around robotic vehicle technologies.

When looking closer to the present, in 2022 we expect sensor revenues to reach $1.6B for Lidar, $44M for radar, $0.6B for cameras, $0.9B for IMUs and $0.1B for GNSS. The split between the different sensor modalities may not stay the same for the 15 years to come. Nevertheless the total envelope for sensing hardware should reach $77B in 2032, while, for comparative purposes, computing should be in the range of $52B.

Today’s car sales account for $2.4T and are the natural target of internet giants like Google, Baidu, Amazon and Uber. They are mostly attracted by transportation as a service market, which we believe should reach the same value of $2.4T in 2032. With an additional $1.1T to be generated by sales of personally owned AD vehicles, the added value of autonomous driving will reach a total of $3.5T. Due to the numbers at stake the stealth players in everybody’s minds are Apple and Samsung, the latter of which is not so stealthy, having bought Harman in 2017. We should expect their entry at some point in time, with a possible “mobile to smartphone style” transformation of the industry.

Robotic vehicle sensor volume revenue forecast

High-end industrial sensors will win in the robotic vehicle sensor suite

There are key differences between automotive advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) technology and the equipment that will fit into early robotic vehicles. We warned about this very persistently in our previous reports on automotive technology. Now, this report provides the missing piece with which to complete your AD market understanding. Automotive ADAS has to focus on reliability and cost issues serving a market with sales of millions of units. The technologies to serve the robotic vehicle market will be mainly driven by performance and availability and will serve a market of only tens of thousands units by 2022. The orders of magnitude are in fact totally different between the two worlds. To generalize broadly, high end industrial sensors will win in the early robotic vehicle sensor suite.

The consequences for existing players and technologies will be huge, as some high-end markets such as Lidars or industrial grade IMUs will more than double in the next few years. The impact will also be strongly felt by industrial camera makers. Technologies are expected to specialize by 2022 and possibly merge partially with ADAS by 2027. Technology-wise 2032 is expected to be another world, with a complete paradigm shift. It is not often that we are facing such deeply transformative changes powered in part by sensing technologies. The robotic revolution is underway and this report is a thorough analysis of its market and technology implications.

Robotic vehicle sensor technology market impact raodmap

OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT

To provide a scenario for sensors within the dynamics of the robotic vehicle market

  • Sensor semiconductor average selling price (ASP) forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast
  • Sensor system ASP forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast 
  • Application focus on the sensor suite: Lidar, radar, cameras, IMU, GNSS, and computing
  • Provide in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players
  • Who are the players and how does the robotic vehicle ecosystem relate to the automotive ecosystem?
  • Who are the key suppliers to watch and which technology do they supply?

To provide key technical insights about and analyses of future technology trends and challenges

  • Key technology choices
  • Technology dynamics
  • Emerging technologies and roadmaps

 

Table of contents

Report objectives and methodology  5


Scope of the report  11


Executive summary  13


Introduction  31


> Global technology roadmaps

> Automotive market status

> Autonomous vehicle – the disruption case

> Robotic vehicle market trend

> Robotic vehicle regulation

> Robotic vehicle sensing technology


Market Data and Forecasts  55


> 2006-2032 Global vehicle sales forecast

> 2017-2022 Robotic vehicle roll-out scenario

> 2017-2022 Sensor system volume forecast (in Munits)

> 2017-2022 Sensor semiconductor ASP forecast (in $)

> 2017-2022 Sensor system ASP forecast (in $)

> 2017-2022 Sensor semiconductor revenue forecast

(in $M)

> 2017-2022 Sensor systems revenue forecast (in $M)

> 2017-2022 Total revenue forecast robotic vehicle (in $M)

 

Company ecosystem  77


> Noteworthy news on autonomous vehicle companies

> Noteworthy news on sensors for autonomous vehicles

> Robotic vehicle sensor ecosystem

> Baidu Apollo ecosystem

> Robotic vehicle suppy chain

> Robotic vehicle computing suppy chain


Lidars  84


> Lidar applications

> 2002-2030 ASP forecast

> 2016-2032 Automotive and robotic vehicle Lidar market ($B)

> Civilian Lidar players

> Comparison chart – current offering

> Comparison chart – future offering

> Solid state roadmap

 

 

   

Radars  97


> Historical timeline

> Frequency regulation

> 2016-2022 Radar module forecast (in Munits)

> 2016-2022 Radar module forecast (in $M)

> 2016-2022 Radar chipset forecast (in Munits)

> 2016-2022 Radar chipset forecast (in $M)

> Radar supply chain landscape

> Teardown summaries

 

Cameras  112


> Camera applications

> 2017 Automotive camera distribution

> 2013-2023 Automotive image sensor forecast (in Munits)

> 2013-2023 Automotive image sensor forecast (in $M)

> 2013-2023 Automotive camera module forecast (in $M)

> Automotive camera market trends

> Robotic vehicle camera market trends

> Emerging technologies

 

Inertial measuring units  138


> IMU technology trend

> 2017-2022 Industrial IMU forecast (in $M)

> Average system cost structure

> 1990-2025 RLG pricing per axis (in $)

> 1990-2025 FOG pricing per axis (in $)

> 2017-2022 Robotic car IMU forecast (in $M and Munits)

> Major players

 

Global navigation satellite system  150


> Technology

> Major players

> Transponders

 

Computing technology  164


> Automotive ADAS supply chain

> Robotic vehicle computing ecosystem

> Robotic vehicle platforms

 

Conclusion  185


Visions of the future  190


Appendix – Yole Développement  200

 

 

 

 

Companies cited

Aeye
Ambarella
Ams
Aptiv
Allied Vision
Arbe Robotics
Asc
Blackmore
Autoliv
Basler
Bosch
Cepton
Continental
Cruise
Delphi
Denso Ten
Didi
Easy Miles
Flir
Fotonic
Furuno
General Motors
Gentex
Grab
Geely
Hella
Heptagon
Hokuyo
Honneywell
Ibeo
Infineon
Innoviz
Intel
Ixblue
Kalray
Konica Minolta
KVH
LeddarTech
Lyft
Luminar
Magna
Metawave
Mitsubishi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Electric
Mobileye
Mobotix
Murata
Navtech
Navya
Neptec
Novatel
Nuotomy
Nvidia
NXP
Oculii
Oryx
Otto
Physical Logic
Pioneer
Quanergy
Renesas
Robosense
Sensonor
Sick
Sony
Socionext
STMicroelectronics
Strobe
TDK
Texas Instruments
Telit
Terrafugia
Tetravue
Toshiba
Trimble
Uber
Ublox
Velodyne Lidar
Valeo
Vayyar
Waymo
Xenomatix
Xillinx
Zoox and more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • 2017-2022

- Robotic vehicle roll-out scenario

- Sensor system volume forecast (in Munits)

- Sensor semiconductor ASP forecast (in $)

- Sensor semiconductor revenue forecast (in $M)

- Sensor systems revenue forecast (in $M)

- Total revenue forecast robotic vehicle (in $M)

- Industrial IMU forecast (in $M)

  • 2016-2032 Automotive and robotic vehicle Lidar market (in $B)
  • 2016-2022 Automotive radar module forecast (in $M)
  • 2013-2023 Automotive camera module forecast (in $M)