Secure payment on i-micronews Contact Yole Développement for I Micronews reports

RSS I-micronewsYole Dévelopement on TwitterYole Développement on Google +LinkedIn Yole pageSlideshare Yole Développement I-Micronews

Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry 2017
May.2017

advanced_packaging_wafer_share_by_manufacturer_yole_report
6 490 €

Choose a minimum of three reports from Yole Group and receive a discount of at least 39% on your package – Contact us!

 

Description

couv flyer statut

How can advanced packaging decrease semiconductor market uncertainty and enable future semiconductor products?

From supporting technology to enabler of future semiconductor products

Future semiconductor drivers are expected to be fragmented and more diverse than in the mobile era. Scaling continues, but functionality and system level features are becoming increasingly important for product differentiation rather than raw computation power. An outlook into the future brings the Internet of Things (from end device to backbone infrastructure), including the Industrial Internet of Things, the semiconductorization of the automotive industry, 5G connectivity, augmented & virtual reality and artificial intelligence. In such an environment, advanced packaging is transforming from follower of scaling technology nodes to enabler of future semiconductor applications and products. Heterogeneous integration of multiple dies from the latest to legacy front-end nodes, involving a mixture of latest technology high density interconnects to lower cost mature interconnects, at high levels of customization is the future of packaging. Advanced packaging has direct impact on product success rates and semiconductor revenues.

Advanced packaging is experiencing a total revenue CAGR 2016-2022 of 7%, higher than the total packaging industry (3-4%), semiconductor industry (4-5 %), PCB industry (2-3%) and generally the global electronics industry (3-4 %) and global GDP (2-3%). The fastest growing advanced packaging platform is Fan-Out with 36% followed by 2.5D/3D TSV with 28%. Fan-Out is expected to exceed 3$B by 2022 while 2.5D/3D TSV is expected to exceed 1$B by 2021. The FC platform is by far the largest, accounting for 81% of advanced packaging revenue with 19.6 $B in 2017, however a lower 5% revenue growth indicates that penetration of primarily Fan-Out packages will decrease FC market share to 74% by 2022. The revenue forecast translates to an advanced packaging wafer forecast of 8% and a 9% unit count, CAGR 2016-2022. Advanced packages will continue to dominantly address high end logic and memory in computing and telecom, with further penetration in analog and RF in high end consumer/mobile segments, while eyeing opportunities in growing automotive and industrial segments.

The following report takes a look at the field of advanced packaging and serves as a yearly overview of the latest market and technology developments. The report first summarizes the drivers for advanced packaging and latest market dynamics followed by packaging technology evolution with short and long term roadmaps. Furthermore, it provides a deep analysis of the supply chain including player positioning and strategy and production per player (revenue, wafers). The supply chain analysis includes a thorough financial analysis of TOP 25 OSATs. The report wraps up by providing revenue, wafer and unit forecasts per packaging platforms along with an analysis of future production and developments in the timeframe 2017-2022.

Advanced packaging wafer share by platform Yole reportV2 

The scaling and functional roadmaps give further rise to advanced packaging

There are several dynamics shaping the advanced packaging market and its evolution. Going forward, two types of roadmaps need to be considered – scaling and functional roadmap. When it comes to scaling, advanced packaging is given the task to enable further packaging of ICs in sub 10nm technology nodes. IC I/O pitch does not seem to be an immediate concern. Within the FC platform, Cu pillars are further increasing market share over FC solder balls, from 59% to 66% utilized FC wafers, 2016 to 2022. Standard bump pitch currently in volume is between 130-150 µm, however Cu pillars already exhibited volume production with 30 um pitch which is expected to be sufficient for the 7nm node and perhaps beyond. The more critical point lies within adopting interconnect technology below L/S <10/10 µm. The report describes in more detail the competition between advanced FC substrate and WLP until L/S 5/5 µm as well as WLP vs. 2.5D/3D technology below L/S 5/5 µm. Furthermore, a long term outlook is given until 2030. On the other hand, within the functional roadmap, most ICs are expected to stay above the 20nm node. Here, cost is more of a concern and advanced packages are facing increasing competition from mature wirebonded packaging as well as modified leadframe packages such as fcQFN. The ratio of cost, power consumption and only then performance will be a key decision making factor here case by case.

Furthermore, some of the key packaging market dynamics are brought into perspective, such as:

  • Impact of longer front end scaling cycles
  • Competing platforms and technologies in the scaling roadmap below L/S 10/10 µm
    • Package substrate vs. WLP
    • WLP vs. 2.5D/3D
  • Transition from Wirebonded to FC packages
  • Introduction of panel level packaging
  • Impact of QFN on advanced packaging growth
     

Supply Chain shifts are resulting in new business models

The shifts in the semiconductor supply chain are results of preparations for future uncertainty, and search for other value flows. Several M&As have been made in attempt to offer a more complete and diversified portfolio, while keeping control of costs and potential losses. Furthermore, in search of additional revenue, new business models are appearing or expanding. Top OSATs are progressing further down the WLP road, but some are also strengthening module production in order to cover a wide range of assembly technologies. EMS companies are eyeing entrance to the OSAT model with “module like” multi die packaging. Advanced board manufacturers are developing as packaging suppliers. Meanwhile, Intel, an IDM remains the advanced packaging leader and TSMC, formerly solely a foundry, is now entering top 10 packaging houses by revenue thanks also to the success of the InFO package. The advanced packaging market is dominated by large IDMs such as Intel and Samsung, 4 large global OSATs and foundry and packaging house TSMC, accounting for 62% of the advanced packaging market. The packaging market as a whole is differentiated by players in several categories: large volume with advanced and mature technologies combined, smaller volume but specific advanced technology and a long tail of mature technology suppliers. Further supply chain shifts, implications thereof as well as production of >25 major packaging suppliers per advanced packaging platform are summarized and analyzed in the report.

Advanced packaging wafer share by manufacturer Yole report

Financials reveal the success of different strategies

A deeper insight into the financial performance enables to create a link between technology evolution, supply chain shifts and overall success of individual players in this changing landscape. TOP 25 OSATs are examined by revenue, R&D investment, CapEx, gross profit/margin and net income. A distinctive pattern of growth is visible from China based OSATs due to acquisitions and capacity increase – Nantong Fujitsu doubled revenues in 2016, while JCET and Tianshui Huatian exhibited YoY revenue growths of 62% and 35%, respectively. The largest OSATs involved in advanced packaging, ASE, Amkor, JCET/STATS ChipPAC, Powertech exhibited positive growths and net margins, while UTAC continues to exhibit net losses and decreasing cash flow. The report contains a deeper insight and financial evolution of TOP 25 OSATs from 2013-2016.

TOP 25 OSATs Net margins 2016 vs. 2015 year end Yole report 

What's new

Overview of advanced packaging in the new semiconductor era:

  • Short term and long term outlook, with roadmaps
  • Impact of FEOL on advanced packaging
  • Analysis per platform, forecasts and future development
  • Competition, disruption and opportunities
  • Complete overview of shifting business models
  • Production splits per manufacturer
  • Detailed financial analysis of TOP 25 OSATs

 

 

Table of contents

Introduction 3


> Report synergies
> Objectives, scope, glossary
> Advanced packaging platforms

 

Executive summary        10


Market drivers        30


> Semiconductor drivers
> Advanced packaging drivers

 

Market dynamics         45


> Disruptions and opportunities
> Competing platforms
   -  Advanced packaging
   -  WB and QFN

 

Technology   61


> Impact of FEOL on packaging
> Packaging and technology roadmaps

 

 

Players and supply chain    86


> Player landscape and positioning
> Business model shifts
> Overview of production per manufacturer

 

Player financials   115


> Financial analysis per parameter
> Rankings
> Company strategies

 

Market forecasts   141


> Forecasts per adv. packaging platforms
> Unit count
> Wafer count
> Revenue
> Analysis per platform and future development

 

Conclusions        166


YOLE presentation     172


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Companies cited

 Altera
 Amkor
 Analog Devices
 Ardentec
 Atmel
 AOI Electronics
 Apple
 ARM
 ASE
 Avago
 Broadcom
 Carsem
 China WLCSP
 Chipbond
 ChipMOS
 Cisco
 Cypress Semiconductor
 Deca Technologies
 Greatek
 IC Interconnect
 Fairchild
 Facebook
 Flip Chip International
 Formosa
 Freescale
 Fujitsu
 Globalfoundries
 Google
 Hana Micron
 Huawei
 Inari Berhad
 Intel
 Intersil
 J-Devices
 JCET
 King Yuan
 Linear Technology
 LB Semicon

 Lingsen Precision
 Maxim
 MaxLinear
 MediaTek
 Microchip
 Microsemi
 Movidius
 Nantong-Fujitsu
 Nanium
 Nepes
 Nvidia
 NXP
 ON Semiconductor
 OptoPAC
 Orient Semiconductor
 Powertech Technology
 Renesas
 Qualcomm
 Rohm
 Samsung
 SilTech
 Sigurd
 SK Hynix
 Softbank
 SPIL
 ST Microelectronics
 STATS ChipPAC
 STS Semiconductor
 Teraprobe
 Texas Instruments
  Tianshui Huatian
 Tong Hsing
 Toshiba
 TSMC
 Unisem
 UTAC
 Walton Advanced Engineering
 and many more…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Advanced packaging market overview
    • Drivers and dynamics
    • Future applications
    • Disruptions and opportunities
  • Technology trends and forecasts
    • Revenue, wafer and unit forecasts per platform
    • Future development per platform
    • Impact of front end scaling
    • Scaling and functional roadmaps
  • Supply chain analysis
    • Overview of production per player (IDM, OSAT, foundry)
    • Supply chain analysis and shifting business models
    • Financial analysis of TOP 25 OSATs