Note from the publisher: The report will be available from October 19, 2018.
In the era of a slowing Moore’s Law, advanced packaging has emerged as the savior of future semiconductor development.
ADVANCED PACKAGING IS ESSENTIAL FOR DRIVING SEMICONDUCTOR INNOVATION
The semiconductor industry is in the midst of a big transition, and entering a disruptive phase where mobile and other emerging mega-drivers, such as big data, AI, 5G, high-performance computing (HPC), Internet-of-Things (IoT) (including industrial IoT), smart automotive, industry 4.0, and data centers will significantly impact business dynamics and create tremendous opportunity across the supply chain.
The electronic hardware needed to support these new mega-trends requires high computing power, high speed, more bandwidth, low latency, low power, more functionality, more memory, systemlevel integration, a variety of sensors, and most importantly, a low cost. These new trends will create business opportunities amongst various packaging platforms, and advanced packaging technologies are ideal for fulfilling the various performance requirements and complex heterogeneous integration needs. Thus, advanced packaging will account for the bulk of the assembly business.
Handling the large data generated by new applications will be crucial, and therefore improved data processing performance will remain one of the drivers for semiconductors. Semiconductor scaling will continue, but without the previous cost/ performance benefits with every technology-node generation. Advanced semiconductor packaging could increase the value of a semiconductor product by adding functionality and maintaining/increasing performance, while lowering cost. A variety of multi-die packaging (system-in-packages) solutions are in development for high- and low-end, as well as for consumer, performance, and specialized applications. This places immense pressure on package suppliers, given the increasing degree of customization required for each individual customer.
From 2017 - 2023, the total packaging market’s revenue will grow at a CAGR of 5.2%, and the advanced packaging market will grow at a CAGR of 7%, reaching $39B in 2023. On the other hand, the traditional packaging market will grow at a lower CAGR of 3.3%. Of the different advanced packaging platforms, 3D TSV and fan-out will grow at rates of 29% and 15%, respectively. Flip-chip, which constitutes the majority of the advanced packaging market, will grow at a ~ 7% CAGR. Meanwhile, fan-in WLP will grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2017 - 2023, led mainly by mobile. Advanced packages will continue their important role of addressing high-end logic and memory in computing and telecom, with further penetration in analog and RF in high-end consumer/mobile segments. All of this while eyeing opportunities in the growing automotive and industrial segments.
This report explores the advanced packaging field and serves as an annual overview of the latest market and technology developments. We begin by summarizing the drivers for advanced packaging along with the latest market dynamics, and then analyse packaging technology evolution, complete with short- and long-term roadmaps. This report also provides an extensive supply chain analysis, including player positioning and strategy, along with production per player (revenue, wafers). This analysis also includes a thorough financial analysis of the top 25 OSATs. The report concludes by providing revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts per packaging platform, along with an analysis of future production and developments over the 2017 - 2023 timeframe.
ADVANCED PACKAGING’S SUCCESS REQUIRES CONSTANT TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION, INCLUDING EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS
To fulfil next-generation hardware performance requirements, advanced packaging must press for innovations in process, materials, and equipment. Indeed, advanced packaging has accelerated the need for breakthrough technologies in substrate manufacturing, package assembly, and test engineering. Investments in next-gen manufacturing tool developments, i.e. thermo compression bonding (TCB), panel-level tools, and substrate UV via formation, are required in order to fuel advanced packaging’s overall growth.
As for materials, there is a desire to develop new dielectric materials, mold compounds, underfill, solder interconnects, and thermal interface materials (TIMs) for fulfilling the stringent performance and reliability requirements demanded by next-generation hardware. Also, the need for breakthroughs in package feature-scaling requires a sense of urgency from key suppliers to the semiconductor packaging industry.
This report covers the trends and challenges specific to advanced packaging technology, and includes detailed roadmaps for various packaging platforms. This report also goes into more detail concerning the competition between advanced flip chip (FC) substrate and wafer level packaging (WLP) up to L/S 5/5 μm, as well as WLP vs. 2.5D/3D technology below L/S 5/5 μm. Furthermore, a long-term outlook is projected to 2030.
Additionally, some key packaging market dynamics are brought into perspective, such as: impact of longer front-end scaling cycles; competing platforms and technologies in the scaling roadmap below L/S 10/10 μm (package substrates vs WLP; WLP vs 2.5/3D); transition from wire-bond to FC packages; and panel-level packaging.
THE SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN IS TRANSITIONING AT VARIOUS LEVELS
In order to expand their business, explore new areas, and guard against future uncertainty, players across semiconductor supply chains are embracing different business models. Some integrated-devicemanufacturings (IDMs) are entering the foundry business to leverage their front-end technology expertise and create additional revenue streams by utilizing their excess capacity. Meanwhile, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and software/services companies are designing their own chips and controlling the related supply chain of equipment and materials.
In betting on mega-trends like AI, some outsourced assembly and testing (OSATs) are expanding into the fablite business model. Pure play foundries are entering the high-end packaging business to provide their customers with turnkey solutions. Other OSATs are directing considerable efforts towards developing advanced wafer-level and 3D IC packaging capability in order to support scaling and density requirements. Meanwhile, certain OSATs are expanding their testing expertise, and traditional pure-test players are investing in assembly/packaging capabilities.
Substrate manufacturers are penetrating the advanced packaging area with panel-level fan-out packaging and embedded die in organic laminate. Electronics manufacturing service (EMS) companies are developing assembly/packaging capability and expanding into the OSAT business domain. The packaging market as a whole is differentiated by players in several categories: large volume with advanced and mature technologies combined; smaller volume but specific advanced technology; and numerous mature technology suppliers.
Supply chain shifts and their implications, as well as the production dynamics of >25 major packaging suppliers per advanced packaging platform, are summarized and analysed in this report.
NEW GROWTH PLAYERS REVEALED VIA IN-DEPTH FINANCIAL OBSERVATIONS OF OSATs
A deeper look into financial performance allows creation of a link between technology evolution, supply chain shifts, and the overall success of individual players in this changing landscape. The top 25 OSATs are examined by revenue, R&D investment, CapEx, gross profit/margin, and net income. Of these top 25, Taiwan-based OSATs account for more than half of total revenue, followed by China, the US, and Korea. Except for OSE and Formosa Advanced Technologies, every OSAT showed year to year growth in 2016 and 2017.
Eight large OSATs are separating from the pack. As these firms continue their heavy investment in CapEx and R&D, the rest must catch up, lest they are acquired or fade away. Three China-based manufacturers are now among the top eight OSATs. UTAC dropped to #8, replaced by Tianshui Huatian and Nantong Fujitsu. JCET, Tianshui Huatian, Nantong Fujitsu, and King Yuan continue growing. ChipMOS’ revenue is up again after a three-year decline, and STS is on the upswing again after four years of negative growth. This report offers deeper insight into the 2013 - 2017 financial evolution of the top 25 OSATs.
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
Advanced Packaging Market overview
- Drivers and dynamics
- Future applications
- Disruptions and opportunities
Technology trends and forecasts
- Revenue, wafer and unit forecasts per platform
- Future development per platform
- Impact of front end scaling
- Scaling and functional roadmaps
Supply chain analysis
- Overview of production per player (IDM, OSAT, foundry)
- Shifting business models
- Financial analysis of TOP 25 OSATs
- 2017-2023 Forecast
- 2017 M&A activity
- Ecosystem update
- Dual and 3D camera trends for mobile
- Mobile applications and technology
- Consumer applications
- Technology update