Can Apple’s use of direct Time-of-Flight (dToF) sensors in the iPhone 12 Pro accelerate and consolidate the use of ToF 3D sensing technology?
- Updated mobile adoption rate/ASP/revenue forecasts through 2026
- Forecast analysis per sub-component
- Added scenario for 3D cameras in consumer products
- Update rear 3D camera application
- 3D imaging and sensing ecosystem update
- Updated trends for all markets
- Technology cost breakdown
- New 3D sensing technologies
Report’s key features:
- 3D imaging and sensing – market forecast in Munits through 2026
- 3D imaging and sensing – market forecast in $M through 2026
- 3D imaging and sensing – ecosystem mapping
- Application trends – mobile and consumer, automotive and transportation, medical, industrial, defense and aerospace
- Technology trends – ToF, LiDAR and others
Objectives of the report:
Ecosystem identification and analysis:
- Determination of the application range
- Technical market segmentation
- Market trends and forecasts
- Key players by market and analysis
Analysis and description of markets and technologies involved:
- Detailed applications per market segment
- Major global players
- Technology trends
- Main technical challenges
TABLE OF CONTENT
Table of contents 03
Report objectives 05
Scope of the report 06
Report methodology 08
About the authors 09
Companies cited in this report 10
What we got right, what we got wrong 11
Who should be interested by this report 12
Yole Group of companies related reports 13
Executive summary 18
- What is 3D imaging & sensing?
- 3D imaging & sensing applications
- Market segmentation
Market forecasts 44
- Market and forecasts (value, units, wafers)
- CAGR vs market size graph
- 2016 – 2026 3D imaging & sensing market(in Munits)
- 2016 – 2026 3D imaging & sensing ASP (in $)
- 2016 – 2026 3D imaging & sensing market (in $M)
Market shares and supply chain 57
- Noteworthy news
- 3D Imaging & sensing ecosystem mapping
- Mobile and consumer ecosystem
Market trends – Mobile 70
- 2010–2026 Mobile handset forecast (in M units)
- 2016–2026 Penetration scenario of 3D cameras in smartphones (in %)
- Mobile market trends
- Mobile 3D sensing application trends
- 3D semiconductor device cost analysis
- Mobile OEM analysis
Market trends – Consumer 91
- Computing/tablet market trend
- AR/VR market trend
- Smartwatches market trends
- Consumer drone market trends
- Consumer robotics market trends
- Consumer emerging market trend
Market trends – Industrial 109
- Market breakdown
- LiDAR in logistics applications
- Industrial 3D camera applications and ecosystem
- Facial recognition in commercial applications
Market trends – Automotive 126
- 2006 – 2026 Light vehicle market (in M units)
- Automotive applications trends
- Autonomous technology trends
- Automotive LiDAR cost analysis and ecosystem
- Automotive market trend
Market trends – Medical 145
- 2016 – 2026 Sensors for X-Ray CT forecast
- 2016 – 2026 Sensors for 3D CBCT
- Medical market trend
- Optical coherence tomography trends
Market trends – Defense & aerospace 158
- Surveying geosystems
- Geographical information systems
- Military applications
Chinese landscape 165
- Chinese 3D sensing supply chain
- Use case for 3D sensing in China
- Technology trend 171
- 3D sensing technology overview
- Different between iToF and dToF
Technology trend focus optical 3D 183
- 3D camera technologies and products
Technology trend focus LiDAR 190
- LiDAR imaging methods and products
Technology trend focus emerging 197
- Plenoptic cameras
Conclusions and takeaways 203
THE RISE OF THE MOBILE 3D SENSING MARKET IS SLOWING, BUT THE NEXT WAVE IS COMING
In mobile markets there is a temporary hiatus in growth of 3D sensing due to the ban of Huawei in the US as well as the fact that the Android camp has abandoned the technology.
The shipment volume of 3D sensing products recorded in 2020 is about 80% of the previous forecast. The gap between previous optimistic forecasts widened as sales leveled off. But underdisplay camera technology became mature, and there are more low-cost indirect Time-of-Flight (iToF) sensing solutions. These could drive higher 3D sensing adoption and a return to growth around 2023.
Apple continues to use front-facing structured light throughout all iPhone series. It also introduced a 3D camera with a direct ToF (dToF) array sensor into the iPhone 12 Pro, a step forward for the 3D sensing market.
Besides mobile phones, 3D sensing technology has a broad consumer market, including tablets, Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR), robot vacuum cleaners, and Artificial Intelligence combined with the Internet of Things (AIoT).
Increased labor costs and manufacturing upgrades are accelerating development of machine vision, including 3D visual systems, increasing 3D vision penetration every year. Electric vehicles have ramped up in 2020, which exploit autonomous driving, as do fully robotic vehicles. This market is going to boom. We believe that it will be the next wave of 3D sensing.
Yole Développement expects the global 3D imaging and sensing market to expand from $6.8B in 2020 to $15.0B in 2026, at a 14.5% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).
3D imaging and sensing technology is an important means to acquire information in the perception of the real world. It provides a basis for the reconstruction of the real geometry of an object and subsequent 3D modeling, detection and recognition. It is used in augmented reality, gaming, autonomous driving and a wide range of applications. This latest edition of Yole’s popular report offers you key insights for navigating 3D imaging and sensing’s growth.
DIRECT TIME-OF-FLIGHT IS CHANGING THE VALUE OF THE 3D SENSING MODULE, BUT CURRENTLY STRUCTURED LIGHT STILL MAINTAINS ITS FIRST POSITION
In the mobile and consumer worlds, some bigger players have paused upgrading of cameras with 3D sensing temporarily. However, we are seeing some small smartphone players start to use iToF cameras to enhance photography, such as Sony and Meizu. Apple, on schedule, used a dToF rear module on the iPad Pro and the iPhone 12 Pro in 2020. It still uses structured light as its face identification in its whole series of products.
This report reveals the penetration rate for major mobile phone makers in 2021. Yole forecasts that 69.2 million smartphones with ToF cameras will be shipped globally in 2021.
The adoption of dToF technology in iPhones could attract a large number of component suppliers to join the supply chain. This would bring more choice to the market and prompt iToF makers to lower costs to compete. That will allow ToF technology to infiltrate non-mobile areas very quickly. For example, machine vision is slowly adopting ToF technology instead of traditional laser triangulation for simple robot pickingup functions. iToF and dToF will become the mainstream 3D sensing schemes by virtue of their cost advantage, longer distance detection and excellent real-time perception ability. Especially in VR/AR, where there is a high demand for time delay to avoid vertigo, ToF is the most suitable spatial positioning technology.
Structured light can be found in all iPhones now. And the Android camp hasn’t given up on structured light either. Instead, companies are aiming at under-display structured light. One of them, ZTE, has already shown its under-display structured light technology in 2021. Structured light is the best technology for facial recognition currently. It can be used widely in facial payment and access control. Yole Développement estimates that the volume of structured light modules will reach 473.7 million in 2026, accounting for about 54% of the whole 3D sensing market.
STMICROELECTRONICS AND LUMENTUM BENEFIT THE MOST IN APPLE’S SUPPLY CHAIN. WHO IS NEXT?
In mobile 3D sensing, Apple’s supply chain is stable and growing. STMicroelectronics and Lumentum are the most profitable, followed by AMS, II-VI and LG Innotek. The Android camp is less healthy. Neither the transmitter component suppliers, such as Trumpf and Vertilite, nor the receiver companies, like Omnivision and PMD Technology, have benefited much. The good news is that they’re already actively working on 3D sensing in the nonmobile space, such as Vertilite in automotive and PMD in consumer applications. We expect they’ll reap the benefits.
Sony is an exception. It is not only the leader of iToF sensors, but also the only manufacturer that can provide dToF sensor arrays for consumer applications. It is very competitive. We will not be surprised if it keeps its number one position no matter how the market changes.
The 3D sensing market is developing rapidly and has great opportunities. In addition to the mobile phone market, automotive Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are set to be a big 3D sensing application. Especially in 2020, the rapid growth of electric vehicles with very high intelligence and ADAS brings LIDAR adoption forward. This has attracted a wide range of players, from LiDAR suppliers in traditional industries like Valeo and Velodyne to electronics giants Sony, Huawei, and start-ups like Livox and XAOS.
In all the 3D sensing markets, China is an emerging market. It shows great vitality not only in the 3D back-end application market but also in the 3D front-end supply chain. This has been driven by the policy of China cultivating local supply chains in the middle of the US-China trade conflict. Facial payment has been driven by platform vendors AliPay and WeChat, and supported by technology provider Orbbec. In 3D machine vision, Hikrobot and Huaray are starting to compete with the likes of Sick and Lucid. In the automotive, the entry of Chinese players has played a decisive role in the price decline of LiDAR.
II-VI, AAC, Abbott, ABAX Sensing, Adaps Photonics, Actlight, ams, Apple, Arcsoft, Artilux, ASC, Baidu, Basler, Baumer, BAE Systems, Benewake, Bosch, Canon, Cognex, Continental, Core Photonics, Cowell, DJI, Denso, Deptrum, Ecovacs, Facebook, Faceshift, First Sensor, Foxconn, Genious Optical, Google, Gpixel, Hamamatsu, Hexagon Metrology, Himax, Hikrobot, Huawei, Huaray, IDS, Infineon, Intel, Innoviz, IFM, IQE, iRobot, iRay, Keyence, Largan, Leddartech, Leica, LG Innotek, Linx, Lips, LMI, LUCID, Lumentum, Luxvisions, Mantis Vision, Medtech, Megvii, Melexis, Namuga, Nordson Dage, Oculus, O-film, Omnivision, On Semi, Opnous, Optovue, Oppo, Orbbec, Panasonic, Pebbles, Percipio.xyz, Philips Photonics, Photoneo, Pix4D, PMD, Q-tech, Quanergy, San’an, Samsung, SmartSens, Sensl, Sensetime, SEMC, Sick, Silicon integrated, Softkinetic, Soitec, Sony, St. Jude Medical, STMicroelectronics, Sunny Optical, Raytrix, Teledyne Dalsa, Tong Hsing, Topcon, Toshiba, Trinamix, Trumpf, Truly, Valeo, Velodyne Lidar, Vertilite, Viavi, Vivo, Waymo, Willsemi, Xiaomi, Zimmer, Zeiss Meditech, ZF and more.
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