Despite weak semiconductor demand, Wafer Level Packaging reaches new heights as Fan-Out package revenue to surpass $2B by 2025 and Wafer Level Chip Scale Packaging revenue to peak to $3B by 2025.
Key features of the monitor
- Quarterly data update
- Market forecast through 2025, in $US, units
- ASP analysis, per market segment
- End-product/device application mix
- Key process-technology mix
- Supplier market share (TSMC, Semco, Samsung Electronics, Amkor, JCET, ASE , PTI, Nepes/ Deca, SPIL, Huatian, TI) in terms of units, $US, and wafers
- Demand forecast through 2025, by category (i.e. mobile, consumer, telecom & infrastructure)
- CapEx and capacity, per supplier
This monitor is not part of our Bundled Offer and full Yole Développement yearly subscription.
Table of contents
Wafer Level Package market overview
- FO and WLCSP package market dynamics
- FO and WLCSP package supply & demand
- Supplier CapEx and capacity (waferlevel and panel-level)
- Market share, per major supplier
- Market pricing (per market segment/package size)
- System demand
- WLP demand
FO and WLCSP production
- FO and WLCSP package – technology mix
- FO and WLCSP package production, per supplier
- FO and WLCSP package – application mix
WITH HIGH-DENSITY FAN-OUT AND CORE FAN-OUT APPLICATIONS EXPANDING, FAN-OUT PACKAGING HAS SECURED A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
Fan-Out (FO) packages have found their niche applications in devices such as PMICs, audio codecs, connectivity modules, automotive radar, high-end application processors, and some RF transceiver applications. As FO packages are finding niche applications, Wafer Level Chip Scale Package (WLCSP) is becoming a new standard mainstream package for mobile/consumer market as it offers lowest package cost for many applications. Fueled by a strong semiconductor industry performance, FO package revenue reached $1.5B in 2018. TSMC remains the leader from a market-share standpoint, followed by ASE, JCET, and Amkor Technology. In 2019, Semco stepped away from its FO Panel Level Processing (PLP) business, which was subsequently acquired by Samsung Electronics. Meanwhile, PTI leads in Panel Level Processing (PLP) packaging expansion activities, with significant CapEx on the horizon and high hopes of winning business from the top Chinese OEMs. As performance requirements evolve, competition will remain fierce in the coming years amongst players and between various fan-out technologies with foundry players clearly winning in the High Density (HD) FO segment while OSATs continue struggling to catch up in this market. Top three OSATs, ASE, Amkor, and JCET continue to drive WLCSP to new heights as this form factor finds its place in switches, filters, serial flash, RF components, wireless charging and many more.
Yole Développement (Yole) will begin publishing, in quarterly instalments, a monitor containing world-class research, data, and insights pertaining to FO and WLCSP packaging markets. This monitor will analyse the Wafer Level Package (WLP) market’s evolution in terms of revenue, shipments, capex, market pricing, capacity, application & process technology mix, and supplier market share. In the future, Yole will extend its coverage to Flip Chip packaging and 2.5D/3D packaging.
FAN-OUT PACKAGING CONTINUES TO GAIN ADOPTION IN HIGH-DENSITY APPLICATIONS AND HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING, WHILE WLCSP PACKAGE BECOMES MAINSTREAM FOR SMARTPHONE & CONSUMER APPLICATIONS
FO packaging began several years ago with limited applications, but it has now found a critical role and rightful place in the high-end packaging sector as a mature, reliable package technology. In fact, TSMC’s InFO form-factors brought FO technology to new heights in 2015 as Apple launched its A10 with InFO-PoP approach. FO packages are primarily used in the mobile and consumer segments, with some proliferation in automotive radar. FO packaging is expected to gain wider adoption as 5G, AI, and autonomous driving take flight in the coming years – and revenue stemming from FO packaging is expected to reach $2B – $2.5B by 2025.
WLCSP market also found a new “M-series” product which provides side mold protection with greater board level reliability (BLR) performance as its being adopted by a major customer. HDFO remains a key growth driver in the FO packaging market. TSMC clearly leads the HDFO segment with its InFO-PoP in mobile and consumer markets as it continues to expand its and InFO variants for networking and high performance computing applications. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics has entered the market with its HD FO PLP line, to be utilized for the Galaxy watch and possible future implementation in Samsung’s Galaxy phone line-up. By 2021/2022 we expect that another top Chinese phone OEM will adopt FO package for its application processor, where HDFO suppliers are predicted to be key winners with fast-growing FO packaging businesses.
FO technology’s future promises to be far more dynamic and complex than its past, as multiple foundry and OSAT players race to win HDFO business while simultaneously growing their core FO products. WLCSP packages are gaining strong momentum in smartphone and consumer applications. Yole’s quarterly market monitor will answer the pressing questions facing this industry, including:
- Will the two primary HDFO suppliers (TSMC and Samsung Electronics) continue to manage supply, or will there be a new entrant to support HDFO’s growing demand?
- Will the FO PLP business significantly increase in the coming years as ASE and PTI increase capex by bringing additional PLP capacity online?
- Will WLCSP packages find new adoption in IoT/consumer applications and how WLCSP package market share will change for automotive applications?
- Will the IoT/consumer market grow significantly , and drive the need for thinner, faster Systems on Chip (SOCs)?
- Will 5G spur additional WLP package growth with new RF designs?
- Will WLP package capex continue increasing, or will it stabilize at a certain level?
With its Packaging Research Quarterly Market Monitor, Yole provides opinions and answers to all of these questions, every quarter.
WHAT DO THE UPCOMING QUARTERS HOLD?
2019 second half results especially a strong Q4 shows demand recovery for advanced packaging market. 2020 remains healthy besides few macroeconomic conditions affecting global markets such as the coronavirus outbreak and will have temporary effect on the world economies. After a low Q1, the FO packaging market faces ASP erosion – especially in the core FO area, where OSATs are under pressure to reduce price with lower demand and their factories filling up. However, WLCSP revenue grew slightly in 2019 despite weak semiconductor market. This clearly shows the dominance of WLCSP packages in mobile/consumer segment as they offer practical/lowest cost solution to OEMs. OSAT capacity for FO packages far exceeds customer demand for core FO devices, but thankfully other WLP products can fill this capacity, ensuring higher factory utilization. The outlook for FO packages remains positive: in the range of 4% growth YoY over the longterm, heading towards $2.5B revenue by 2025.
The HDFO market remains a key driver that can propel the FO packaging market to new heights as a possible inflection point in 2021. IoT/wearables can also drive incremental growth.
ADVANCED PACKAGING QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR – CONTENT
The Advanced Packaging Quarterly Market Monitor contains all of the data related to FO and Fan-In/WLCSP package revenue per quarter, shipments, near and long-term revenue, market share per quarter, capex per company, and market demand/supply forecasts. Also included is a complete analysis of demand breakdown across key segments such as mobile, consumer, automotive, and medical. For top players (TSMC, Samsung Electronics, Amkor, JCET, ASE/Deca, PTI, SPIL, Nepes, Huatian), the Advanced Packaging Quarterly Market Monitor, furnishes a detailed analysis of capex, shipments, market share, and capacity, along with the expected impact of changes in FO/WLCSP process technologies and the application mix.
Amkor, ASE, Deca, Huatian, JCET, Nepes, PTI, Samsung Electronics, Semco, SPIL, TSMC, TI, China WLCSP
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