Processor market overview

• Market dynamics
• Revenue
• Shipments
• Pricing
• Quarterly revenue – near and long term
• CAPEX

Market shares

• APU quarterly market shares
• Smartphone market shares
• Tablet market shares
• Smartwatch market shares
• APU-based Notebook market shares
• SmartSpeaker market shares
• SmartTV market shares
• AR+VR market share
• Automotive infotainment market share
• CPU desktop market shares
• CPU notebook market shares
• CPU server market shares
• GPU client market shares
• GPU server market shares

Pricing

• Pricing, near and long term
• Pricing by segment
• Pricing per unit area
• Pricing per transistor

Technology trends

• Apple die size trend
• Samsung die size trend
• Hisilicon die size trend
• Qualcomm die size trend
• APUs with embedded AI accelerators
• APUs by memory interface
• Average die size

Processor production

• Quarterly wafer output
• Annual wafer output
• Wafers by logic node
• Units by logic node
• Foundry revenue
• Foundry revenue per wafer

THE PROCESSOR LANDSCAPE IS REORGANIZING AMIDST GLOBAL TRADE DISPUTES AND DESIGNER INNOVATIONS

Recent events have created the potential to re-align the massive processor market. These include: Apple turning to in-house designs for Mac processors, the meteoric rise of graphics processors (GPU) accelerated coprocessing in the datacenter and restructuring the application processor (APU) supply chain around China-US trade tensions.
The APU is the central chip for managing and executing the many functions of which modern “smart” devices are capable. In fact, as more consumer devices become always on and always-connected, the APU becomes an attractive alternative to its traditionally more power-hungry x86-based counterparts. Appearing across the connected consumer device spectrum, APUs saw $37B of revenue in 2020 alone. Adding in CPUs for PC and server ($61B), and discrete GPUs for PC and server ($17B), the bulk of this processor market generated $115B of revenue for their designers. The lines between these markets start to blur with recent developments, such as Apple turning to an APU solution in their PCs. If the M1 shows enough success, this market could see more x86-based sockets moving toward APUs.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM YOLE DÉVELOPPEMENT’S PROCESSOR QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR?

The Quarterly Market Monitor examines andforecasts the APU, CPU, and GPU markets, as dissected across multiple dimensions. The monitor tracks processor revenue, units, and wafer volumes at both fabless chip designers and at the foundries themselves, sliced across various relevant parameters including process node, end-product segment, etc. Subscribers to this product will become knowledgeable on details of the processor landscape and where to expect inflections in the market.

The monitor will also examine the reported financials of players within the ecosystem. Through this examination, the Quarterly Market Monitor will provide estimates of the amounts of revenue, margin, and capital expenditure (Capex) attributable to application processors for key designers and manufacturers.

Yole Développement’s (Yole) Processor – Quarterly Market Monitorwill address the pressing questions facing this industry, including:

• Which logic nodes are critical for processors over the next 12-24 months?
• What are the price and cost trends within the multiple tiers of the CPU, GPU, and APU markets ?
• How many 10nm/7nm/5nm/3nm wafer starts are needed to satisfy the demands of the processor market for the next 5 years? Who will have the necessary capacity to deliver for OEMs ?
• When will 5nm become a mainstream node for processors?
• What implications do any delays of a process node carry to the processor market?
• How do the trends in luxury and high-end smartphones drive behavior in the designers and manufacturers of processors?
• How do the performance trends of end-products translate into market trends of processors?
• Which end device segment is driving revenue, unit, and wafer growth for processors?
• How will new functionalities in embedded neural networks impact the wafer volume requirements for processor manufacturing ?
• How much capital expenditure for wafer fabrication equipment will be required to support the processor forecast
• What weight do key assumptions drive within the market forecast ? What is the range of market possibilities for a given range of adjustment within base assumptions ?

Underpinning the monitor are complex databases that track processors and their respective end-products, aggregated from highly detailed device and component teardowns. An internal Yole model supports the monitor, which employs extensive data analysis on the historical processor and device datasets to understand and forecast the tendencies of segment designers and OEMs on key parameters such as transistor count and density, speed, and processor core count to derive die size, wafer volume, cost, and performance. These insights are integrated with information gathered from across the Yole network and expert interviews to create a robust market forecast, unique for Yole and its customers.

WHAT IS NEXT FOR PROCESSORS?

The long-term trend within the application processor industry is for OEMs to seek differentiation and demand increasing processing power for end-products, while living within the power and BOM constraints of high mobility. Similarly in the microprocessor space, the system designers seek to deploy ever-increasing computing capabilities at ever-increasing efficiencies. In some cases, this calls for new hardware and software as in AI training and inference. Designers, IP licensers, and manufacturers partner to meet those demands by adding capabilities to the traditional areas of computing and graphics, as well as the emerging focus of innovation in neural network processing, deep learning, and artificial intelligence. In fact, artificial intelligence enablement (through stand-alone or embedded AI accelerators) is the newest differentiator for processor designers and OEMs. Packing ever-increasing computational capabilities into semiconductor devices has long been the trend for the whole of computing industry history. The next decade of processors will be no different. However, we are witnessing a slowdown in the rate of cost decline for a unit of computing capability, and therefore processor designers will have a choice to make: continue computational improvements at historical levels and accept the increasing costs, or adjust their innovation to match the rate of cost decline and live within historical BOM and margin bands. We expect the decision designers make will depend on the specifics of their target markets. The dynamics of players within this industry is continuing to evolve, and a quarterly market monitor is a critical tool for those looking for the advantage of insight.

Apple, Broadcom, Arm, Global Foundries, Google, HiSilicon, HTC, Huawei, Lenovo, LG, MediaTek, Meizu, OPPO, Qualcomm, Samsung, SMIC, Sony, Spreadtrum, TSMC, UMC, UniSOC, Vivo, Xiaomi, XMC, ZTE