• Glossary 2
• Scope of the report 7
• Definitions and methodology 8
• 3-page summary 10
• Executive summary 13
• Context 57
• The future of the car industry 71
• Car semiconductors market forecast 99
  • Revenue in value / units / wafers
  • Connectivity
  • ADAS
  • Shared
  • Electrification
  • 2035 vision
• Connectivity (V2X, Displays, Lighting) 112
  • Introduction
  • Applications
  • Technology roadmaps
  • Player positioning
  • Conclusion
• ADAS 158
  • Introduction
  • Applications
  • Technology roadmaps
  • Player positioning
  • Conclusion
• Sharing (New business models, Interior sensing) 184
  • Introduction
  • Applications
  • Technology roadmaps
  • Player positioning
  • Conclusion
• Electrification 208
  • Introduction
  • Applications
  • Technology roadmaps
  • Player positioning
  • Conclusion
• Outlook 235
  • Outlook
  • Consumer AV

About Yole Développement 244

THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY WILL NEVER BE THE SAME!

Driven by numerous factors, the car industry is undergoing dramatic changes.

A chip shortage resulting from a conjunction of many events started in November 2020 and could last beyond H2 2022. A direct consequence is a chip price increase of up to 20% and disruption in the supply chain.
In 2021, many countries announced aggressive plans to reduce CO2 emissions through car electrification. Therefore, in the next 15 years, OEMs will have to shift most of their production from ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars to EV/HEVs worldwide. This evolution, along with more semiconductor content driven by C.A.S.E. (Connectivity, ADAS, Sharing, Electrification), will favor the coming of new entrants. These are from the semiconductor and consumer fields (Sony, Huawei, Apple…), while “traditional” Tier-1s (Valeo…) will have to master new developments to stay competitive.

Following this trend, IC assembly companies (Foxconn, Magna Fisker…) could position themselves in car assembly changing the current supply chain. It is likely that OEMs could become “fabless” while IC assembly players will diversify into automotive.
This will, in turn, affect the supply chain as OEMs will have to negotiate directly with chip manufacturers, learn from the consumer industry, and keep “buffer stock”.

Finally, China is intensifying competition in the automotive industry, investing massively in both vehicles and semiconductors. This will change the industrial landscape dramatically.

A $318B MARKET IN 2035

The value of semiconductors (at the chip level) in cars will grow from $34.4B in 2020 to $78.5B in 2026, a 14.75% CAGR. The largest growth will be in EVs due to the major shift to electrification.
A car has today, on average, $450 worth of semiconductors. In 2026, it will be $700. Automotive developments are driven by technological developments for C.A.S.E. (Connectivity, ADAS, Sharing, Electrification). We have estimated the C.A.S.E. related electronics modules market evolution to be:

• Connectivity: $32,7B in 2020, $54.8B in 2026 –14.6% CAGR
• ADAS: $33.3B in 2020, $60.3B in 2026 – 6.5%CAGR
• Sharing: $0.2B in 2020, $3.4B in 2026 – 10.4%CAGR
• Electrification: $6.6B in 2020, $28.8B in 2026 –53.5% CAGR

In 2035, C.A.S.E. will be a $318B market. Wafer shipments will grow from 20M to more than 45M, with 8’’ being the most used wafer size. The 20nm node and below will be driven by ADAS and infotainment applications. Today, most of the wafer production for automotive is for 130/180 nm and more, and leading-edge technology is very scarce. But 40nm and 28nm are used for the Mobileye EyeQ3 and EyeQ4 for ADAS and autonomy. Memory for infotainment and ADAS use 10-14 nm. In the future, 7nm could be used for ADAS. The current chip shortage mainly affects nodes in the 40-180nm range.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC CARS AND SELF-DRIVING TECHNOLOGIES WILL RESHAPE THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

The development of electric vehicles and self-driving technologies naturally attracts OEMs and Tier-1 component suppliers. Therefore, new OEMs like Nio, Xpeng, and Lucid Motors, among others, have recently entered the industry. Other players coming from the semiconductor or the consumer industries will enter the field as well. In this race to full autonomy, large OEMs with many resources – like Volkswagen – will develop the necessary software by themselves or partner with or acquire robotic vehicle companies. Generalist OEMs with few resources are expected to rely on Tier-1s to develop basic automated driving features. These Tier-1s will have to master camera, radar, LiDAR sensors, and the computing. Companies from the semiconductor side, like Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Intel-Mobileye, are positioning themselves, sometimes through acquisitions, at the center of automated driving systems. For example, Qualcomm could soon acquire Veoneer to reinforce its position in the automotive industry. Companies coming from the consumer industry, like Apple, Huawei, or Xiaomi, are also entering the market. Depending on their strategy, they could develop only the self-driving part or the entire electric car, like Huawei is doing. Foxconn, which is known for its assembly role in the Apple supply chain, is partnering with several companies such as Apple and Stellantis and is increasing its automotive-related business. This new role of subcontractor, like Foxconn, is growing, and a recent partnership between Fisker and Magna showed that Magna will assemble the car. In the future, it could be possible to see new automotive OEMs being fabless and relying on the experience of subcontractors.

The COVID-19 crisis has emphasized the increasing importance of semiconductors in cars. Companies coming from the semiconductor and software sides have strong financial power and could acquire some Tier-1s or Tier-2s’ companies. This could reshape the automotive landscape in the coming years.

Alibaba, Ambarella, AMS, Analog Devices, Anhui Jianghuai Automotive Group, Apple, Aptiv, ARM, Aryballe, AUO, Autotalks, BAIC Group, Baidu, BMW Group, BOSCH, BYD Auto, Century Goldray Semiconductor, Changan Automobile Group, Chery Automobile, Cityhop, Continental, Cree, Daimler Group, Danfoss, Denso, Dongfeng Motor Corp., DriveNow, Everlight, Excelitas, Faurecia, China FAW Group Corp., FCA, FLIR, Ford Group, Global Power Technology, GlobalFoundries, GM Group, Great Wall Motor Company Ltd., Guangzhou Automobile Group, Hamamatsu, Hella, Honda, Huawei, Hyundai Kia Automotive Group, Ibeo, Infineon, Isuzu, Kyocera, Lextar, LG Innotek, Lumileds, Magna, Mahindra & Mahindra, Mazda, Mediatek, Melexis, Mobileye, modo, Murata, Nvidia, NXP, OmniVision, ON Semiconductor, Osram, Ouster, Panasonic, Perodua, PSA, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Quanergy, Redpine Signals, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, Renesas, Rohm, SAIC, Samsung, Semikron, Senseair, Sensirion, Sharp, Siemens, SK Hynix, SmartEye, Sony, STMicroelectronics, Subaru, Suzuki, Tata Group, Tesla, TI, TowerJazz, Toyota Group, TSMC, Uber, UMC, Umicore, Velodyne, Veoneer, Vishat, Visteon, VW Group, Waymo, Wingtec Technology, Wolfson, Xilinx, Xperi, ZF, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group… and many more!