The 3D-NAND manufacturing equipment market will keep growing, propelled by robust long-term NAND-bit demand and ever-increasing manufacturing complexity.
Key features of the report
- 2019-2025 market forecast in units and revenue (US$) for four types of equipment used for manufacturing 3D-NAND wafers, namely:
- Dry etching – High Aspect Ratio (HAR) etching, hard-mask opening, resist trimming, conductor/dielectric etching
- Deposition – Plasma Enhanced (PE) CVD and ALD for dielectric and conducting materials
- Lithography – ArFi immersion and ArF, KrF, and I-line dry lithography
- Hybrid bonding – wafer-to-wafer bonding such as YMTC’s Xtacking™
- Analysis of 3D-NAND manufacturing materials, their technical requirements, trends, roadmaps, and key suppliers
- Description of technical trends and challenges in the 3D-NAND business, scaling roadmaps, along with overview of main players and product-development roadmaps
- Mapping of the NAND supply chain, analysis of recent M&A and joint ventures, list of noteworthy news, and company announcements in 2019-2020
- Analysis of COVID-19’s impact on the 3D-NAND business: effect on demand, bit shipments, and capex
Objectives of the report
Provide an overview of the stand-alone memory business with focus on NAND
- Present an overview of the wafer-fab equipment technologies and processes:
- Deposition (CVD, ALD), dry etching, lithography, and hybrid bonding.
- Describe the 3D-NAND manufacturing equipment, materials, and processes
- 3D NAND architectures and technical trends: string stacking, circuit under array (CUA) vs. Xtacking™, and more
- Technical challenges and equipment solutions for manufacturing 3D-NAND
- Manufacturing materials: suppliers and technology/market trends.
- Provide market forecast for the period 2019-2025: revenue, ASP, and units
- Detail and analyze the competitive landscape:
- Financial analysis of top NAND manufacturers and equipment suppliers
- Latest company news, mergers, and acquisition
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents 10
Scope of the report 15
Executive summary 27
Introduction and context 58
- Overview of the stand-alone memory business 64
- Overview of semiconductor equipment market 83
3D-NAND business – market, applications and key players 90
3D-NAND technology and manufacturing process 106
- 3D-NAND technologies, roadmaps and trends 118
- 3D-NAND manufacturing process flows 135
- Technical challenges 150
3D-NAND manufacturing materials 160
WFE solutions for 3D-NAND manufacturing 174
- Deposition – CVD, ALD 184
- Dry etching 191
- Lithography 199
- Hybrid bonding 207
3D-NAND business players 219
- Financial analysis 242
- List of recent mergers and acquisitions 259
Equipment for 3D-NAND manufacturing – market overview 264
Market forecast – deposition for 3D-NAND manufacturing 272
Market forecast – dry etching for 3D-NAND manufacturing 280
Market forecast – lithography for 3D-NAND manufacturing 288
Market forecast – hybrid bonding for 3D-NAND manufacturing 296
Impact of COVID-19 on the NAND business 303
General conclusions 310
Noteworthy news 314
How to use our data? 320
Yole Corporate presentation 321
1. ETCHING AND DEPOSITION WILL DRIVE THE GROWTH OF THE 3D-NAND MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT MARKET.
NAND Flash has become a mainstream technology because of its high scalability, which allows increased bit-density and lower cost-perbit in next-generation storage technologies. Its adoption has been accelerated by extraordinary advances in the underlying manufacturing processes, which have enabled a major technological transition from planar 2D to 3D architectures and continuous scaling through vertical stacking of memory cells.
Despite some seasonality and cyclicality, which are typical of the stand-alone memory business, the NAND market is expected to grow from $44B in 2019 to $81B in 2025 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR19-25) for this period of 11%. This will be driven by robust long-term bit demand fueled by rising data-centric applications in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and the internet of things (IoT), intelligent factories, virtual/augmented reality, and autonomous vehicles. In turn, the expansion of the NAND market will trigger new growth in the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market, particularly in the areas of etching and deposition. In 3D-NAND, scaling occurs primarily in the vertical direction. Lithography requirements are therefore
more relaxed compared to other memory technologies, whereas High Aspect Ratio (HAR) etching and thin-film deposition are critical.
In the next five years, the 3D-NAND equipment business will be further propelled by the continuous increase in manufacturing
complexity and number of processing steps, which will boost equipment capital expenditure (capex) required for ramping up next-generation 3D-NAND nodes. Remarkably, 3D-NAND is an etch-intense technology, with more than 50% of the equipment capex required for etching. The total 3D-NAND equipment market spanning etching, deposition and equipment is expected to reach $17.5B by 2025. It will be driven by etching, with a CAGR19-25 around 10%, and deposition, with a CAGR19-25 around 9%. Four companies – ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and Lam Research – hold more than 70% of the overall equipment market. ASML is the unquestioned leader in the field of lithography. Lam Research is the market leader for etching and since 2011 and has also been expanding in the CVD/ALD segment. Applied Material, Tokyo Electron and Lam Research compete intensely in different areas, including CVD, ALD and PVD and etching. These three players will benefit most from expansion of the 3D-NAND business, but it will be also very sensitive to tail- and headwinds in the memory industry.
2. ADVANCES IN THE FIELD OF 3D-NAND MANUFACTURING ARE ENABLED BY BOTH EQUIPMENT AND MATERIAL DEVELOPMENTS.
In the highly competitive 3D-NAND business, there is need for ad hoc tools capable of addressing complex challenges. Etching tools must drill deep channel holes from the top of the device to the bottom substrate. Deposition tools must produce high-quality defect-free thin films with nanometer thicknesses. Metrology/Inspection tools are also becoming essential to monitor the processes and maintain high yields. Ideally, these challenging tasks need to be accomplished in the fastest possible time and lowest cost. In this framework, the competition among equipment suppliers to deliver the best solutions is growing fierce. Besides equipment technology development, a great deal of R&D effort has to be focused on finding new material solutions. For instance, new hard mask materials with high selectivity like metaldoped carbides are being investigated intensely. So too are new metals for contact lines, alternative precursors for tungsten deposition, new channel materials to avoid charge mobility degradation, and more. Several material suppliers are involved in the 3D-NAND business and offer material solutions to challenging manufacturing steps, such as dielectric stack deposition or HAR etching.
3. SPECIFIC TECHNICAL STRATEGIES ARE NEEDED FOR NEXT-GENERATION 3D-NAND PRODUCTS.
3D-NAND memory manufacturers will adopt different strategies to increase the number of layers and the overall bit density per die. There are three focus areas:
- String-stacking. Whereas all players have already adopted a double-stack approach, Samsung – the industry leader – is the only player to develop the 128-layer generation with a single-string approach and thus enjoys higher margins on NAND than
other chipmakers. For the following generation Samsung is expected to adopt double stacking.
- Cell architecture. All the manufacturers except Intel have adopted the Charge Trap (CT) solution for their 1xx 3D-NAND technologies. Intel has recently announced the sale of its 3D-NAND business to SK hynix, and we expect they could shift from floating gate (FG) to CT as the deal with SK hynix moves forward. The transfer of the NAND business is expected to be completed by 2025.
- Logic circuit position. Besides Micron, with circuit-under-array (CUA), SK hynix, with 4D NANDTM, and YMTC, with XtackingTM, all players need to implement specific solutions to minimize the silicon-area consumption of the CMOS logic circuit.
Nowadays, all major 3D-NAND manufacturers are carrying out R&D activities to explore the use of wafer-to-wafer stacking approaches based on hybrid bonding. For instance, Samsung has not yet disclosed an approach to minimize the CMOS logic-circuit area and a has strong know-how in bonding technologies stemming from its CMOS Image Sensor (CIS) and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) businesses. It could be a potential candidate for the adoption of hybrid bonding for 3D-NAND. SK hynix could follow Samsung. In fact, although SK hynix already has CUA architecture 4D-NAND, it also has sound expertise in bonding for HBM and CIS and has recently licensed Xperi’s ‘DBI’ technology for advanced memory applications.
Among the hybrid-bonding tool suppliers, EV Group has achieved a leading position in the field of 3DNAND, and could benefit from a fast-growing market in the next 5 years (CAGR19-25 of 20%) in the hypothesis that two major manufacturers will adopt hybrid bonding by 2023.
Leveraging extensive knowledge of the NAND business and related manufacturing equipment and processes, Yole is glad to introduce the brand-new report “Equipment and Materials for 3D-NAND Manufacturing”. This report is the result of tight
collaboration between Yole Développement and the reverse-engineering company System Plus Consulting, which performed a detailed analysis of the leading-edge 3D-NAND devices by all major memory suppliers.
ACM Research, Adeka, Advantest, AGC, Air Liquide, Air Products, Amec, Applied Materials, ASM International, ASML, Cabot Microelectronics, Canon, Coventor, Cypress, Dow, Dupont, Entegris, Enthone, Eugene Technology, EVG, Fujifilm, Fusion IO, GigaDevice, GlobalFoundries, Hansol Chemical, Heraeus, Hitachi Chemical, Hitachi High Technologies, Intel, JSR Corporation, Jusung Engineering, Kingston, Kioxia, KLA Tencor, Lam Research, Linde, Macronix, Materion, Merck, Micron, Mitsubishi Materials, Nanometrics, Naura, Nikon, Nippon Kayakli, Nova, Onto Innovation, Samsung, SanDisk, Screen, Seagate, Semes, Shin Etsu, SK hynix, SK materials, Smee, Spansion, Sumitomo Bakelite Co., Praxair, Rudolph Technologies, SMIC, Tok, Tokyo Electron, Teradyne, Tes, Toshiba, Tok, Tsinghua Unigroup, TSMC, Ultratech, UMC, UniIC Semiconductors, Uyemura, Veeco, Versum, Western Digital, Winbond, Wonik IPS, Wonik Materials, XFab, XMC, Xperi, YMTC, Zeon, and more.
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