Report introduction 4

Context 63

• Segmentation, report focus, definition
• Fan-Out packaging introduction
• Is Fan-Out packaging still popular?

Market forecasts 73

• Market revenue: Fan-Out packaging production
• Supplier revenue: equipment and materials in Fan-Out packaging
• Supplier revenue: production investment
• Supplier revenue: FOWLP vs FOPLP

Market trends 93

• Market drivers and dynamics
• Analysis of FOWLP vs FOPLP: inflection points, player strategies

Market shares and supply chain 98

• Overview of equipment and materials suppliers
• Fan-Out Panel-Level packaging supply chain
• FOWLP market share in 2018

Technology trends 102

• Fan-Out Panel-Level packaging challenges
• Generic process flows and approaches in Fan-Out packaging

Market forecasts, market shares and technology focus by process 140

• Carrier bonding and debonding
  • Materials: carriers
  • Equipment: debonding tools
• Pick-and-place
  • Equipment: pick-and-place tools
• Molding compound deposition
  • Materials: molding compound
  • Equipment: molding tools
• RDL passivation
  • Materials: RDL polymer
  • Equipment: RDL polymer coat/develop tools
• RDL patterning
  • Materials: RDL photoresist
  • Equipment: lithography tools
• RDL barrier-seed layer
  • Equipment: PVD tools
• RDL plating
  • Materials: Cu RDL plating chemistry
  • Equipment: Cu RDL plating tools
• Metrology & inspections (technology only)

Conclusions 290

Yole Développement corporate presentation 294

EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS MARKET REVENUE FORECAST IN FAN-OUT PACKAGING

Although Fan-Out (FO) packaging is still a relatively small market amongst other popular packaging platforms, it can cover high-end High-Density (HD) FO and lowend Core FO applications. Historically, FO packaging is essential to applications such as Power Management Integrated Circuits (PMICs), Radio-Frequency (RF) transceivers, connectivity modules, audio/codec modules and radar modules and sensors. It was, however, the adoption by Apple’s Application Processor Engine (APE) of TSMC’s integrated FO Package-on-Package (inFO-PoP) platform that started to fuel its popularity and made HD FO possible. Now, there is no doubt the industry is no longer as overexcited about FO packaging as it was during the TSMC/Apple buzz. However, in HD FO, TSMC is the sole leader, and is not only using inFO for APE. It is also extending it into new exciting technologies like inFO-Antenna-in-Package (AiP) for fifth generation (5G) wireless communication, and inFO-on-Substrate (oS) for High Performance Computing (HPC). So, FO packaging is still maintaining its centrality as a popular option for mega-trend driven applications like AiP, HPC and Systems-in-Packages (SiPs). FO Wafer Level Packaging (WLP) capacity expansion is therefore expected moving forward. SEMCO and PTI have been catching up aggressively, with a different strategy, since 2016. A new milestone was achieved by SEMCO in 2018, with the latest release of a FO Panel-Level Packaging (PLP) APE-PMIC in the Samsung Galaxy Smartwatch. Also, PTI had gone into FOPLP production for MediaTek’s PMIC and audio transceiver. Moving forward, investments by manufacturers will be modest in the short term and strong in the long term. Regardless, a new high volume application is anticipated to fuel another tremendous growth in the FO packaging market space.

Based on new sales, made from incremental production volumes, the equipment and materials revenue for FO packaging is expected to grow from >$200 M in 2018 to >$700 M in 2024 at >20% CAGR. With production players slashing growth projections in 2019, suppliers of FO packaging are now anticipating a smaller Capital Expenditure (CapEx) investment in 2019. Nevertheless, equipment and materials suppliers are well-positioned in the FO packaging supply chain to gain business from long-term growth. Megatrend-driven demands, in the long run, are expected to provide the impetus to push for an inflection in the equipment and materials revenue from FO packaging eventually.

In this report, the equipment and materials market is sized based on processes that reflect the characteristics and relevance of FO packaging. These include carrier, debonding, pick-and-place, molding compound deposition, ReDistribution Layer (RDL) passivation, RDL patterning, RDL barrier-seed layers and RDL plating. The equipment market value is significantly higher than the materials market for FO packaging, with the Average Selling Price (ASP) of equipment per wafer generally higher than the ASP of materials per wafer. Also, certain key processes do not need any materials, for example pick-and-place. Moreover, Yole Développement analysts cover equipment and materials in more depth in the report.

FOPLP VS FOWLP UNFOLDS IN THE EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS SUPPLIER LANDSCAPE

FO packaging suppliers are grappling with two conflicting motivations of cost reduction and Return-on-Investment (ROI) justification. FOWLP suppliers are worried about a cost-price war if FOPLP is adopted and finally overloads the market with supply. There will continue to be pressure to make a strategic decision to invest in either FOWLP or FOPLP because core FOWLP capacity is showing signs of under-utilization. Coupled with FOPLP penetration, the over-supply risk is increasingly being recognized. Yet, there are strong motivations to venture into FOPLP because endcustomers are demanding lower cost FO packages. As such, some FO packaging suppliers are sitting on the fence. In this divided environment, they would rather gain less business with certainty than embrace uncertainty that could involve losing on larger investments.

FOWLP suppliers are unable to stop the penetration of FOPLP suppliers despite the volume of FO being relatively small compared to the huge volume of printed circuit boards sold, which enables panel-level manufacturing. This forces FOWLP suppliers to focus on higher-end challenges that FOPLP cannot achieve technically in the near term. For example, TSMC’s supply chain is expected to grow because of the extension of HD FO applications.

A lower production penetration rate of FOPLP is expected in 2019 even though more players are involved compared to 2018. In 2019, FOPLP suppliers are expected to expand slowly, with more players adopting panel capabilities. Presently, the volume is not big enough to justify further investment in panel production, especially when core FO is already experiencing under-utilization. However, in the long run, the expansion of FOPLP is expected to increase because new players are driving a low-cost proposition into the FO packaging market. Also, it has been proven technically feasible by SEMCO and PTI. FOWLP equipment is projected to drop by 12% from 2018 to 2024. On the other hand, FOWLP materials, FOPLP equipment and FOPLP materials are all expected to gain 4% each.

GLOBAL EQUIPMENT MARKET SHARE FOR FOWLP

Due to the lack of a substantial market for FOPLP, only market shares of FOWLP are analyzed in this report. Equipment and materials market shares are analyzed for both sectors in full in the report. In this flyer, however we are focused on equipment suppliers. The market revenue from each process varies. Apart from the ASP differences, asset value depreciation, High Volume Manufacturing (HVM) throughput and number of process passes are crucial to a tool’s unit production volumes. Suppliers understand that they need to be resource-efficient and resilient to the effects of the cyclical nature of this industry.

Hence, equipment suppliers are not passive in supporting FO packaging developments and production. In fact, competition is strong because suppliers are trying to establish their products as the Development-Tool-Of-Record (DTOR) for the new FO packaging fabs or production lines. In 2018, the global equipment market for key processes is worth >$100 M. The first-ranked company in 2018 for market share for FO packaging tools for the RDL barrier-seed layer process was Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) equipment supplier SPTS, a subsidiary of KLA, with a 90% share of the market.

3D-Plus, 3M, A*Star, AG, AGC, Akrometrix, Amicra, Amkor, Analog, Apple, Applied Materials, ASE, ASM, Atotech, Aurora semiconductors, Besi, Bosch, Brewer Science, Broadcom, Camtek, Capcon, ChipPAC, Corning, Deca, Denko, Devices, Dialog, Dupont, Ebara, Enthone, ERS, Evatec, EVG, Fico Molding, Freescale, Fujifilm, Hanmi, HD Microsystems, Henkel, HiSilicon, Hitachi Chemical, Hoya, Huatian, Huawei, Ibiden, IME, Infineon, Intel, ITRI, JCET Group, JSR, Kulicke&Soffa (K&S), Lintec, Mediatek, Medtronic, Merck, MicroTec, Mitsui, MLI, Nagase ChemteX, Nanium, Nanometrics, NEG, Nepes, Nexx, NGK, Nissan Chemical, Nitto Denko, Nokia, Novellus, NXP, Oerlikon, Orbotech, Plan Optik AG, Platform Specialty Products, PTI, Qualcomm, Rudolph, Samsung Electronics, Schott, Science, Screen, SEMCO, SEMPRIUS, SEMSYSCO, SMEE, Shibaura, Shin-Etsu, Shinkawa, Shinko Electric, Silicon, SPIL, SPTS, STATS, STATS ChipPAC, STMicroelectronics, Sumitomo, SUSS MicroTec, Tazmo, Technic, TEL, TOK, Toray Chemical, Towa, TSMC, Ultratech, ULVAC, Unimicron, UnitySC, Ushio, UTAC, Wacker, Yamada and more…