
Quarterly analysis of the NAND market, historical and forecast, including market pricing, supply data by producer, demand by end-market, plus much more
Key features of the monitor
- Five-year market forecast for supply including fab capacity and wafer production, process and technology roadmaps, and demand by market segment, including client SSD, enterprise SSD, mobile, removable storage, automotive and consumer
- Market shares from 2015-present by supplier, region, and segment
- Supplier financial data from 2015-present including revenue, ASP, operating cost per bit, and operating margin
- Detailed two-year quarterly ASP forecast for key NAND components and packaged solutions
What’s new
- Updated NAND market dynamics, highlighting current market conditions and latest supplier and market quarterly results
- Breaking news and current events, and implications to the market
- Status of China’s memory efforts, and impacts from US/China trade disputes
- Updated supplier technology roadmaps, die teardown results, and fab construction updates
- Latest demand trends and NAND adoption by key segments and technologies
The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables
- Excel database with all historical and forecast data
- PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolution
- Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, including opportunities for an on-demand Q&A as well as discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news
This monitor is not part of our Bundled Offer and full Yole Développement yearly subscription.
Table of contents
NAND market overview
- Market dynamics
- Current events
- China memory update
- Market summary, near- and long-term
- Revenue – historical and forecast
- Shipments
- Pricing
- Operating margins
- Sufficiency
- Near-term supply and pricing outlook
- Capex
NAND market shares
- Revenue share
- Bit shipment share
- Regional shares
- Segment shares
NAND demand
- Segment bit demand & share
- Mobile
- SSD summary
- Client/PC SSD
- Enterprise/datacenter SSD
- SSD vs. HDD summary
- Automotive
- Gaming
- Chromebook
- Removable storage
NAND supply
- Wafer production by supplier, fab location, process, and technology
- GB per wafer by supplier
- 3D NAND supplier roadmaps
- Bit production by process & technology
- Density mix by bits and units
- Technology bit mix by segment
- SLC bit production & market share
NAND supplier profiles
- Industry capacity update
- Samsung
- Kioxia
- Western Digital
- Micron
- SK hynix
- Solidigm
- YMTC
- Other suppliers
Consolidation scenarios
- Intel + SK hynix (complete)
- Western Digital + Micron
- Kioxia + Micron
- Kioxia + SK hynix
- Kioxia + WD
- “End-game” consolidation
Description
In the memory markets, the only certainty is uncertainty
Over the past several years the NAND market has endured many challenges. These include a major fab power outage, escalating trade tensions with China and a global pandemic. There were also widespread supply chain issues, a new entrant to the market, consolidation, and chemical contamination impacting wafer production at two of the largest NAND suppliers. These events have reinforced the notion that the only certainty in the memory markets is uncertainty.
Megatrends and HDD replacement will drive NAND to new heights
Despite the uncertainty, along with the continued presence of seasonality and cyclicality, the long-term outlook for the NAND market is positive. Imbalances in supply and demand can cause market volatility in the short term, but emerging megatrends are driving massive growth in data generation and local-, edge-, and cloud-storage requirements. This growth is augmented by the ongoing replacement of hard-disk drives (HDDs) with NAND-based solid-state drives (SSDs). In combination, these trends are expected to push the NAND market to new heights in the coming years.
NAND demand remains robust, with strong growth for enterprise Solid-State Drives (SSDs) in data centers, increasing adoption of SSDs in laptop PCs and gaming consoles, and continued storage growth in smartphones and other mobile devices. These segments will continue to drive the bulk of NAND bit consumption, though several emerging trends are poised to augment future growth, including artificial intelligence (AI) and Virtual Reality (VR) adoption, autonomous driving, and the Internet-of-Things (IoT).
NAND competitive dynamics are challenging
Capital expenditures for the industry remain elevated to support the NAND architecture shift from planar 2D to 3D structures and ongoing layer count increases. There are several announced or anticipated cleanroom additions that are needed to offset wafer throughput reductions as suppliers’ ramp up 3D-NAND processes. Despite layer count increases and the emergence of quad level cell (QLC) flash memory, technology-driven bit growth will slow as process and manufacturing complexities continue to rise.
Samsung is growing into its massive Pyeongtaek manufacturing site and expanding its facilities in Xi’an, China. Kioxia is rumored to be weighing the benefits of an Initial Public Offering (IPO) versus a tie-up with its technology and manufacturing partner Western Digital. SK Hynix recently acquired Intel’s NAND/SSD business and renamed it Solidigm. Micron continues to be a 3D technology leader despite its relatively small market size. Meanwhile, a new entrant is emerging—China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC)—which threatens to disrupt the status-quo. The addition of YMTC to an already competitive market will likely pressure long-term supplier profit margins in the absence of further industry consolidation.
Monitored companies
Kioxia Corp., Macronix International Co., Micron Technology, Inc., SK hynix Inc., Samsung Electronics Co., Solidigm, Western Digital Corp., Winbond Electronics Corp., Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp. (YMTC) and more…