NAND Quarterly Market Monitor (PPT file)

NAND market overview

• Market dynamics
• Revenue – historical and forecast
• Shipments
• Pricing
• Operating margins
• Sufficiency
• Near-term supply and pricing outlook
• Capex
• China memory update
• What-if’ consolidation scenarios

NAND market shares

• Revenue-based market share
• Shipment-based market share
• Regional market share
• Segment market share

NAND demand

• Segment bit demand and share
• Mobile
• SSD – PC (client) and Datacenter (enterprise)
• Automotive
• Gaming
• Removable storage

NAND supply

• Wafer production by supplier, process, and technology
• Bit production by process, technology, and density
• GB per wafer, by supplier
• 3D-NAND supplier roadmaps
• SLC bit production and bit market share

NAND supplier profile

• New cleanroom updates
• Samsung
• KIOXIA
• Western Digital
• Micron
• SK Hynix
• Intel
• YMTC
• Others

A complete Excel file with the analysis’ numerical data is included with the PPT presentation

NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor (Excel file)

Monthly price evolution looking back six months and forward 12 months:

QLC NAND ($/unit)

• 1Tb (128GB)

TLC NAND ($/unit)

• 128Gb (16GB)
• 256Gb (32GB)
• 512Gb (64GB)

MLC NAND ($/unit)

• 16Gb (2GB)
• 32Gb (4GB)
• 64Gb (8GB)
• 128Gb (16GB)
• 256Gb (32GB)

SLC NAND ($/unit)

• 1Gb
• 2Gb
• 4Gb
• 8Gb (1GB)

eMMC ($/unit)

• 16GB TLC
• 32GB TLC
• 64GB TLC
• 128GB TLC

UFS ($/unit)

• 32GB TLC
• 64GB TLC
• 128GB TLC
• 256GB TLC

eMCP ($/unit)

• 16GB+8Gb LP3
• 16GB+16Gb LP3
• 32GB+16Gb LP3
• 32GB+24Gb LP4
• 64GB+32Gb LP4
• 64GB+48Gb LP4
• 128GB+32Gb LP4

IN MEMORY MARKETS THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS UNCERTAINTY

When the memory markets surpassed $160 billion in revenue in 2018 it would have been easy to believe that a new era had dawned on the notoriously volatile segment. The last two years, however, have proven that the only certainty in the memory markets is uncertainty. Revenues collapsed in 2019 by more than 30% as prices fell by nearly 50% for both DRAM and NAND. As the COVID pandemic gripped the world in 2020 it seemed certain that the memory markets would continue their disastrous declines… yet they did not. Proving once again that they are volatile and fickle markets, both NAND and DRAM markets grew revenue in 2020, 28% and 6% respectively. Exiting 2020 both the DRAM and NAND markets showed signs that 2021 could be an even stronger year. Are we entering another memory super-cycle similar to 2017? There are numerous moving pieces and a lingering pandemic that could change the market’s prospects, but the current outlook is promising.

MEGATRENDS AND HDD REPLACEMENT WILL PUSH NAND TO NEW HEIGHTS

The long-term outlook for the NAND market is positive, despite the continued presence of seasonality and cyclicality. Imbalances in supply and demand can cause market volatility in the short term, but emerging megatrends driving massive data generation and the ongoing replacement of hard-disk drives (HDDs) with NAND-based solid-state drives (SSDs) are expected to push NAND to new heights.

Capital expenditures for the industry remain elevated to support the NAND architecture shift from planar (2D) to 3D structures and ongoing layer count growth. There are several announced or anticipated cleanroom additions which are needed to offset wafer throughput reductions as suppliers’ ramp-up their processintensive 3D-NAND.

NAND’s competitive landscape remains incredibly dynamic. Samsung is utilizing its massive Pyeongtaek site and expanding its facilities in Xi’an, China; Western Digital is reportedly close to a merger with its technology and manufacturing partner KIOXIA Corporation; SK Hynix is in the process of acquiring Intel’s NAND/SSD business; and Micron continues to be a 3D technology leader even as it transitions from floating – to replacement-gate technology. Meanwhile, a new entrant looms on the horizon: China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), which threatens to disrupt the status-quo. NAND demand remains robust, with strong growth for enterprise Solid-State Drives (SSDs) in data centers, increasing adoption of SSDs in laptop PCs, and continued content growth in smartphones and other mobile devices. These segments will continue driving the bulk of NAND bit consumption, though several emerging trends are poised to augment future growth, including AI and VR adoption, autonomous driving, and IoT.

As the NAND market continues evolving, the industry faces many important questions, including:

• When will the NAND market shift from oversupply to undersupply, and vice-versa? How will supplier profitability be impacted? How does the priceelasticity of demand factor into the outlook?
• What are the limits of 3D-NAND stacking? How will NAND suppliers continue to scale as 3D stacking’s limits approach?
• To what extent will Quad-Level Cell (QLC)-based products reach the market, and from whom? What about PLC ?
• What is the status of YMTC’s ramp up? How will its emergence impact the market?
• Will incumbent suppliers cede share to YMTC, or will a market-share battle erupt?
• Why are NAND capital expenditures elevated? Will capital intensity climb too high and threaten supplier stability?
• Will the NAND market eventually consolidate, similar to DRAM? How might this play out?
• How do changes in price impact market demand? Which market segments are impacted first?
• How do new megatrends like AI, machine learning, and virtual reality impact the NAND outlook?
• How will SSD form-factors and interfaces evolve over time?
• At what rate will SSDs replace HDDs in PCs?

Yole Développement answers these questions and provides opinions on a quarterly basis with its NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN THE UPCOMING QUARTERS?

Although the anticipated 2020 NAND recovery failed to materialize as impacts from COVID-19 and worsening trade tensions between the US and China proved too much to overcome, the market is rebounding in 2021. Strong post-pandemic demand recovery and limited supply growth will lead to market and profit expansion this year. Longer-term, NAND revenue is expected to grow as cost reductions enable further penetration of NAND-based storage solutions into traditional HDD markets. On the technology front, despite layer count growth and the emergence of QLC, technology-driven bit growth will slow as process and manufacturing complexities continue to rise. Long-term NAND ASP declines are expected to slightly outpace industry cost declines due to the addition of YMTC from China to an already competitive market. Supplier profit margins will likely remain pressured in the absence of industry consolidation. The differences in planar vs. 3D-NAND process flows have shifted capex focus from lithography to deposition and etching: substantial fab retooling is required to convert existing planar fabs to 3D. With increasing processing time for 3D-NAND, major investments are required in new cleanroom space to maintain stable wafer output during transitions, benefiting equipment vendors.

NAND QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR AND MONTHLY PRICING MONITOR – CONTENT

The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor provide a wealth of data, including historical and forecasted revenue; supplier bit shipments and wafer production; component and solution pricing; market shares; capex by company; technology roadmaps; and market supply/demand sufficiency analysis. Additionally, detailed demand data is provided across all major segments, with a deep dive into client and enterprise SSD, data centers, mobile, automotive, PC, and more.
For the top seven players (Samsung, KIOXIA, Western Digital, Micron, SK Hynix, Intel, and YMTC), the NAND Quarterly Market Monitor offers a detailed analysis of capex, shipment, wafer production per technology (process mix) and per fab, as well as the expected timing and impact of new capacity additions and NAND technology changes. The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

• Excel database with all historical and forecast data
• PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/ analysis covering expected evolutions
• Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, including opportunities for an on-demand Q&A as well as discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news.

WHAT ABOUT THE DRAM SERVICE – MEMORY RESEARCH?

A full package:
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

• Excel database with all historical and forecast data
• PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
• Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for on-demand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news

Frequency:
Receive every quarter the updated Market Monitor documents and every month the updated Pricing Monitor documents

Options:

• Pricing Monitors can be bought individually (NAND, DRAM or both)
• Memory Research are available for DRAM, NAND and both

Check the different options on the order form page.

Samsung, KIOXIA, Western Digital, Micron, SK Hynix, Intel, YMTC, and more…