China has won the LCD war. Now, LG, Samsung and others are readying complex and expensive technology investments to fight the battle for the next generation of TVs.
- Fully updated TV panel forecast and supply/demand analysis
- Detailed analysis of TV panel maker status and strategies
- Detailed analysis of miniLED backlights
- Analysis of Samsung’s QNED technology
Key features of the report
- TV panel forecast by size, technology
- TV panel capacity forecast by region, panel maker, fab generation and technology
- Panel maker profile and strategy
- Analysis and forecast of emerging TV features: large sizes, 8K, high dynamic range, wide color gamut
- Analysis and forecast of current and future TV technologies: enhanced LCD including QD films, phosphors, miniLED and dual cells, OLED, including WOLED, RGG inkjet-printed OLED and QD-OLED and emerging self-emissive technologies, including microLED and QNED and electroluminescent QD
Objectives of the report
- Provide a detailed analysis of the status of the TV Panel industry: capacity, volume forecasts, supply vs. demand analysis, strategy of key players, Covid-19 impact etc.
- Analyze present and future TV panel technologies including: LCD plus quantum dot color filters (QDCF), miniLED, Dual Cell, WOLED, RGB OLED inkjet, microLED, QNED, EL-QD.
- Analyze the key features of next-generation TVs including 8K, high dynamic range and wide color gamut, understand which technologies are best-positioned to deliver them, and explore the intersections to understand the impact on leading panel makers and their strategies.
Table of Contents
Executive summary 19
Market forecast/Supply and demand analysis 72
- Looking back at 2019
- LCD capacity attrition: Who fills the vacuum?
- China Subsidies
- 2018-2024 TV panel area capacity forecast – Broken down by technology, region, company and fab generation
- Covid-19 Impact
- 2018-2026 TV sets volume and area forecast – Size breakdown
- 2018-2026 TV panels area forecast – Technology breakdown
- 2018-2024 supply vs demand analysis
Competitive landscape and company strategies 99
- TV panel maker market share
- AU Optronics
- CEC Panda
- TCL CSOT
- Innolux/Sakai Display/SIO/Foxconn
- LG Display
Technology landscape 128
- Overview, scorecards, and evolution
- New self-emissive technologies
- Structure and price trends
- SWOT analysis
- Supply chain status and trends
Narrowband phosphors 153
- Notch filters
- Narrowband phosphors
- Bandpass filters
MiniLED backlights 159
- From FALD to miniLED
- LED type and die size, circuit board
- Passive or active matrix
- Power consumption
- Design and performance trade offs
- 75” miniLED BLU and TV cost benchmark: WOLED vs miniLED LCD
- Key players
- SWOT analysis
Dual cell LCD 192
- Cost benchmark vs OLED and miniLED
- Power consumption
- Status and timeline
- SWOT analysis
- RGB and white OLED
- Top emission/bottom emission
- Inkjet RGB OLED– Key players and supply chain
- SWOT analysis
- Benefits and challenges
- SWOT analysis
- Nanorod fabrication, structure and sizes
- QNED display structure and assembly
- QNED vs QD-OLED and “standard” microLED: The third path?
Summary: OLED company strategies 241
Electroluminescent Quantum Dots (EL-QD) 247
- Potential benefits vs RGB OLED
- Status and major players
- MicroLED transfer and assembly processes
- Die size, implications for performance and manufacturability
- Intellectual property activity trends
- Supply chain
- Challenges for tiled displays
- Scenario for microLED adoption in TV
- Possible disruption : QNED
- SWOT analysis
- Quantum Dot patterning and Inkjet Printing
- Alternative: Organic Vapor Jet Printing (OVJP)
- TFT backplane
Large panels 289
- TV size vs. price
- Substrate cuts
- Multi modal glass cut
- “Jumbo” TV: 90” and above: MicroLED modular displays and laser TV
- Is 8K needed?
- Building the plane while flying?
- 8K content availability for by diffusion platform/support
- Power consumption
- TV panel resolution forecast 2018-2026
- 8K breakdown by panel size 2018-2026
Wide color gamut 331
- Color gamut and color volumes
- Technology benchmark
- Performance of commercially available TV
- Wide color gamut forecast and technology breakdown 2018-2026
High dynamic range 349
- Viewers’ preference & UHD Alliance requirement
- Transfer function, tone mapping – Signal delivery and HDR standards
- HDR ecosystem – 2020 update
- OLED vs. LCD
- HDR TV volume forecast 2018-2026
- Contrast or color? OLED or LCD?
- Emerging self-emissive technologies
- Technology roadmap for High-End TV
Yole Développement presentation 375
CHINA WON THE LCD WAR. NOW 2020 WILL BE A TRANSITION YEAR
Driven by the Chinese central government’s five-year plan directives, the country’s display panel industry replicated a strategy already successfully used by domestic companies to gain supremacy in other industries such as photovoltaic panels, sapphire substrates or LED chip manufacturing.
The TV panel market was disrupted by the rise in China of large players that have increased capacity regardless of demand. In 2019, oversupply sent prices to their lowest levels ever, below cash cost for most players. Thanks to subsidies, lower depreciation, and newer and more efficient fabs, BOE and CSOT can control prices to eliminate competition. Korean and Taiwanese LCD panel makers turned unprofitable and it became clear that China would soon close the technology gap, leaving no opportunity for differentiation, and then control prices and own the market. In Q1-2020, Samsung and LG therefore decided to almost fully retreat from the LCD TV panel business. In the meantime, the Covid-19 pandemic impacted the supply chain and demand in the first half of the year.
Until late 2019, the industry had severe and lasting excess capacity. The tables have now turned. Samsung and LG will remove the capacity to produce more than 52 million m2 of large panels by 2021, accounting for 18% of 2019 global capacity. Meanwhile, Chinese players are adding 42M m2 worth of capacity. There are now risks of shortages from 2021 and beyond. This could be exacerbated if Taiwan makers shut down their least efficient fabs and if China converts some LCD lines to OLED rather than proceed with greenfield investments, as conversion typically cuts fab capacity by 50 to 66%.
REVENUE AND MARGINS LIE IN SELF EMISSIVE TECHNOLOGIES, BUT LCD IS HERE TO STAY
OLED was once thought to be the sure winner in the high-end TV market, but LCD is increasingly efficient at competing in this segment as well. Technologies such as quantum dot (QD) films, Full Array Local Dimming and miniLEDs significantly improve LCD performance while leveraging the existing LCD manufacturing infrastructure and requiring little to no additional capital expenditure (capex). The performance gap between LCD and OLED shrank while white OLED (WOLED) failed to reduce the cost gap. As a result, OLED is facing increased competition from LCD in the high-end segments, forcing LG to reduce WOLED panel prices for the first time in years. LCD will hold 98.2% of the TV market in 2020 and remain unchallenged on entry-level and mid-range segments. It will still capture 94% of volume in 2026 although its revenue share could drop below 75%.
To support margins and revenue, the industry is attempting to compel consumers to upgrade their TVs to more expensive models. Wide Color Gamut (WCG) and High Dynamic Range (HDR) are now standard on high end TVs and are propagating into mid-range products. For 8K, however, despite a nascent ecosystem, adoption is still hindered by high cost and price, lack of native content and multi-level bottlenecks through content generations and delivery.
DIFFICULT TECHNOLOGY CHOICES FOR PANEL MAKERS
Options for the next generation of TV panel technologies keep proliferating. To win the next battle, risky, multi-billion dollar bets need to be made now. Those choices will decide the fate of Korean panel makers. LG Display got a head start with WOLED. Its new Guangzhou G8.5 fab scheduled for late 2019 was delayed by Covid-19 and yield issues. With WOLED sales below expectation in 2019 and 2020, LG postponed ramp up until late July for fear that depreciation would f urther harm its financials if it can’t quickly fill its capacity. A G10.5 WOLED fab investment was also put on hold indefinitely. In the short term, LG must improve manufacturing efficiency through yields and multi-model glass in order to lower costs, and stimulate demand.
Samsung is pursuing a dual track strategy Its panel division Samsung Display (SDC) is investing $11B including $8.4B of capex to build a Gen 8.5 QD-OLED fab. Its Visual Display TV set division prefers milking its profitable QLED LCD brand, and upgrading it with miniLEDs in 2021 while developing microLEDs. After retreating from LCD, SDC will depend on its mobile OLED business for revenue. It therefore needs QD-OLED ASAP to remain in the TV business. Its Quantum Nano Emitting Diode (QNED) technology could fast track microLEDs if development succeeds.
WOLED and QD-OLED are stop-gap technologies. BOE and CSOT are both eager to skip WOLED and level the playing field by jumping directly to the next generation, either inkjet-printed red/green/blue (RGB) OLED or electroluminescent (EL)-QD. CSOT’s $187M investment in JOLED gives more credence to its plans to build G6 and G8.5 RGB OLED fabs by 2023. If successful, this could render QD-OLED and WOLED fabs mostly obsolete. Samsung and LG must therefore proceed with caution on their QD-OLED and WOLED investments while accelerating their own RGB OLED and EL-QD development.
AUO, Innolux and Sakai Display strongly benefit in the short-term from Samsung and LG’s exit from LCD. The need of some TV brands to maintain reliable panel sources outside of China to mitigate supply chain risks could reduce long term risk. However, they have not significantly invested in OLED. In the longer term, microLEDs could be AUO’s and possibly Innolux’s best shot at offering high-end, large TV panels without the massive capex of an OLED fab.
MicroLED’s unique ability for bezel-less tiling could enable the manufacturing of displays of arbitrarily large size. All leading panel makers are accelerating their development. Luxury microLEDs TVs priced above $50,000 will enter the market in 2021 but microLED cost, yield and manufacturability roadblocks are hard to lift. For the consumer market, microLED remains an outsider for the time being.
Apple, Asus, AU Optronics, Avantama, BOE Technology, CEC Nanjing Panda Crystal, Changelight, Changhong, CHOT, CNC, CSOT, Cynora, Dolby, Dupont, eFun, Efonlong, Eizo, Electech, eLux, Epileds, Epistar, Excellence Opto, Exciton, Flanders Scientific, Foxconn, Funai, GE/Current, Haier, Hansol, Harvatek, HC Semitek, Hisense, Hitachi Chemical (AKA Showa Denko Materials), HKC, HongLi, Huawei, Innolux, Intematix, JOLED, Kateeva, KDX, Kinglight, Konka, Kulicke & Soffa, Kyulux, Lextar, LG Display, Loewe, Lumenari, MnTech, Nanjing Tech, Nanoco, Nanophotonica, Nanosys, Nationstar, Nexdot, NHK, Nichia, Nitto Kolon, Panasonic, Philips, PixelDisplay, Playnitride, Quantum Materials, Refond, Rohinni, Sakai Display (SDP/SIO), Samsung Display, Samsung Visual Display , Sanan, Semes, Sharp, ShineOn, Skyworth, Sony, Sumitomo Chemical, Taiwan Nanomaterials, TCL, Tianma, Toshiba, TPV, Universal Display, Vestel, Vizio, Wahong, X-Celeprint/XDisplay (XDC), Xiaomi, and more.
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