Strict CO2 targets will push EV/HEV share to 38% of all passenger vehicles in 2026, representing a $5.6B market opportunity for various semiconductor technologies and power devices.
- OEMs’ electrification plans, investments, and business diversification
- Focus on Korea and China
- Battery trends for EV/HEV (48, 400 and 800V)
- Insight into power electronics in different converters by vehicle electrification type (Traction inverter, DC/DC, OBC)
- COVID impact on automotive
- E-bus and E-truck market trends
- Automotive fuel cell drivers and trends
Key features of the report
- 2020 – 2026 market metrics and forecasts for each EV/HEV type, from vehicle sales and power converter market to power devices
- Market trends overview for EV/HEV, electric buses and trucks
- Supply chain overview, including “who supplies to whom”, and business diversification for OEMs, Tier 1s and power semiconductor manufacturers
- Significant mergers and acquisitions, collaborations, and investments
- Main technology trends, including system integration and the use of vehicle platforms by major OEMs
- Power devices overview, with a focus on Wide Band Gap components (SiC and GaN) and packaging
Objectives of the report
- Provide an overview of the main global drivers for vehicle electrification as well as drivers for each vehicle electrification approach
- Analyze the impact of the COVID-19 crisis in EV/HEV segment
- Furnish an analysis of each vehicle electrification approach, along with forecasts for vehicles, converters and power devices
- Enlarge the overview of the EV/HEV supply chain with focus on power module suppliers, system makers (Tier1s) and vehicle manufacturers (OEMs), with also a focus in China and Korea
- Analyze the changes in business models, synergies with other EV/HEV business segments and other applications outside of EV/HEV
- Review the latest announcements of M&A, partnerships or investments for EV/HEV main actors
- Identify the key technology trends that will influence the power electronic system and component choice in the future
Table of content
EV/HEV classification and terms used in this report 3
Report methodology and definitions 10
What we got right, what we got wrong 13
Who should be interested by this report 14
Executive summary 16
Market forecasts 74
- EV/HEV volumes
- Converter market
- Main inverter market
- Power device market
Market trends 84
- CO2 regulations
- COVID impact
- Incentives, regulations worldwide
- EV/HEV trends
- E-Bus/E-Truck trends
- ICE cars
Supply chain analysis 124
- Main EV/HEV OEMs
- Who is involved in EV/HEV power electronics?
- Who supplies to whom
- EV/HEV supply chain robustness
- Business evolution
- Mergers and acquisitions
- Focus on China
- Focus on Korea
Technology trends 229
- Charging infrastructure
- Power devices for EV
Yole Group presentation
GLOBAL ELECTRIFICATION PUSHES THE ACCELERATION OF BEV TECHNOLOGY
With the stringent CO2 reduction targets followed by carbon neutrality targets announced by several countries, the automotive industry has taken a big step forward toward vehicle electrification. The electrification strategy differs for each OEM, particularly within different regions, but there is a common goal to increase the share of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) in their fleet. Hybrid electrification remains an option for the coming 10-15 years, although it does not meet the long-term carbon neutrality goals.
The electrification choice is directly linked to the technology architecture choice regarding converter power or battery capacity, which will lead to completely different performance characteristics from vehicle to vehicle. In the coming five years, Yole Développement (Yole) still expects a growing market for power semiconductor linked to Mild-Hybrid Electric Vehicles (MHEV), with the addition of 48V battery in the car. Moreover the semiconductor content per vehicle increases with the electrification level, from hybrid to full electric vehicles.
Indeed, BEV is driving the acceleration of the technology, where customers are clearly demanding a long driving range with a short recharging time while pushing to keep costs down. As detailed in the report, there are several ways to increase the driving range, such as optimizing the battery design to increase its energy capacity or increasing the efficiency of the inverter. On the other hand, the drive to decrease battery charging times is leading to the deployment of high-power chargers (up to 350kW) worldwide. To avoid the challenges associated with high current levels, the trend is to increase the battery voltage. The increase of battery voltage from today’s 400V to 800V also enables faster charging, providing a high added value for car users. Indeed, 800V batteries have been adopted by Porsche and Hyundai, and others will follow. As the main inverter is then operating at higher voltage, its power semiconductor components have also to be rated at higher voltage levels, typically at 1,200V. This transition from 600V-750V components to 1,200V components represents a new business opportunity for some suppliers and reduced business for others.
An overview of the vehicle electrification choices, together with the different technology options and the strategy of the leading OEMs, is presented in the report.
THE TRACTION INVERTER IS THE MAIN MARKET CONTRIBUTOR FOR POWER ELECTRONICS IN EV/HEV
There are basically three converter types in an electric car: the main inverter, DC/DC, generator and onboard charger (OBC). The main inverter is the largest market among the different converters due to the higher power levels, leading also to the highest content of power semiconductors. Thus, the main inverter market is expected to reach $19.5B by 2026, representing 67% of the total EV/HEV converter market, with a CAGR of 26.9%.
Regarding the power semiconductor market, its value is expected to triple from 2020 to 2026, driven by a major technology battle between IGBT and SiC modules. Indeed, SiC modules are presently still about x3 the cost of a 650V IGBT module, but this difference will shrink when larger volumes are produced, with the transition to 8-inch wafers, and with the penetration of 1,200V devices for higher battery voltages.
The EV/HEV supply chain continues to be impacted by the increased demand and technology trends. Although the leading semiconductor manufacturers for EV/HEV remain the same as for other power applications (such as Infineon, STMicroelectronics, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric, ON Semiconductor), other companies are now offering power modules for EV/HEV (Tier 1s, OEMs, power semiconductor manufacturers, and pure module newcomers). A similar situation occurs with the battery design and manufacturing, where OEMs such as Tesla and GM are further trying to control their supply chains. Competition at OEM level has also opened two main fronts: on the one hand, there are the traditional OEMs with established markets and known brands that are transforming their business towards electric vehicles. On the other hand, pure EV OEMs are popping up in the different regions of the world (such as NIO, Rivian, Rimac, Xpeng, and Hozon), some of which are rapidly increasing their volumes year after year (lead by Tesla). The new car models being launched often offer better performance/cost ratio, and this has led to a continuous reshaping of the top 10 vehicle sales.
In the report, Yole discusses the forecasts for the major markets and provide a detailed overview of the supply chain from different viewpoints.
SIC IS NOW WALKING THE EV/HEV RED CARPET
Over the last couple of years (and especially since Tesla introduced SiC in their Model 3 main inverter), there has been much noise around SiC adoption in EV/HEV. But not all converters or all types of electrification are suitable for this expensive material. Without a doubt, BEV is the winner due to the requirements of a long driving range and fast charging time (km driven by charge time). Therefore, the increased cost of the converter is repaid, as the efficiency of the converter will improve, allowing battery savings. It is no surprise then that the use of SiC in the main inverter has become a common goal for the leading OEMs, with players such as Daimler and Hyundai soon including it in their main inverters. Who will be next?
Today, there is already a good portfolio of SiC devices with SiC dies coming from Infineon, Cree (Wolfspeed), and STMicroelectronics. Many semiconductor players are targeting SiC modules for EV applications, and the SiC module market is expected to reach 32% of the total EV/HEV semiconductor market by 2026. There is a focus on WBG materials in the report. We include SiC adoption roadmaps for different OEMs together with a focus on WBG adoption for different converters and different car electrification types for the next five years.
Ankai, Aptiv, Audi, BAIC, BMW, BMW-Brilliance, BorgWarner, Bosch, Broad-Ocean, Brusa, BYD, CATL, Continental, CRRC, Daimler, Dana, Danfoss, Delphi, Delta Electronics, Denso, FAW, FCA, Ford, Fuji Electric, Geely, GKN, GM, Hella, Hitachi, Honda, Huayu, Hyundai, Infineon, Isuzu, JAC, Jaguar Land Rover, LiAuto, Kia, LG Chem, Macmic, Mahle, Mahindra, Mazda, Mitsubishi Electric, Mitsubishi Motors, Nichicon, Nidec, NIO, Nissan, Panasonic, Porsche, Proterra, PSA, Renault, Ricardo, SAIC, Samsung SDI, Scania, Schaeffler, Shinry, Siemens-Valeo, Solaris, Starpower, Tesla, Subaru, Tata Motors, Toshiba, Toyota, UAES, Valeo, Volkswagen, Volvo, Yutong, Xpeng, and more.
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