Quantum technologies are jumping to a commercial state.
- Overview of quantum technology applications: computing, cryptography, sensing and clocks
- Analysis of the different technologies for qubits with pros and cons
- Quantum devices and systems: current challenges and roadmap
- Market forecast in units and value for quantum computers and associated services up to 2030
- Market forecast for quantum cryptography, quantum sensors and atomic clocks up to 2030
- Overview of the players, their market shares and the supply chain
- Analysis of investments in quantum companies
- Player overviews
- Provide market data on quantum technologies: computing, telecommunication and sensing
- Shipments and revenue, up to 2030, for hardware and service
- Expected market developments
- Market shares
- Describe quantum technologies and challenges:
- Technology choices
- What are the major drivers? What will the market look like in 2030?
- Analyze major technological trends:
- Developments in existing and future technologies
- Pros and cons
- Enable a thorough understanding of the value chain, infrastructure, and players for the quantum technologies and quantum computing market:
- Extensive listing of players, and their technology portfolios
- Industrial supply chain information
- Business model discussion
- Investment analysis
Table of Content
Report scope 3
Report methodology 4
About the author 5
Companies cited in this report 6
Report objectives 7
Who should be interested by this report? 8
Glossary and definitions 9
3-pages summary 10
Executive summary 13
Quantum computer 64
- Quantum algorithms
Quantum cryptography 105
Quantum sensors 122
- Quantum magnetometers and gravimeters
- Atomic clocks
- New developments
Market forecast 147
Market trends 161
Market shares and supply chain 167
- Fund raising
- Market shares
Technology trends 213
About Yole Développement 250
QUANTUM, THE LATEST DISRUPTION!
Quantum technologies are at the crossroads of numerous applications and fields. They span system engineering, materials research, cryogenic technology, software, semiconductors and photonics. They are still early stage technologies, but with huge potential. In the past, we saw the first quantum revolution when the priorities were to understand and predict. Today we are entering the second quantum revolution, when engineering is needed to develop future quantum systems based on photons, electrons, atoms or molecules. Quantum technologies and specifically quantum computing are rising, bringing many questions:
- Which qubit technologies will be favored is still under debate. There are many of them with pros and cons and different statuses with regard to fidelity, coherence and scalability.
- Development is ongoing and new qubit technologies could be found in the race for quantum computers.
- For quantum computing technologies to become widespread, we need to lower technology cost and shrink the form factor.
- The business model is not yet defined. Will the big companies like Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft (GAFAM) who are developing quantum computers offer ‘Quantum as a Service’ (QaaS)? Or will they keep it for their internal developments? Will new software companies emerge?
Although quantum computing is jumping to a commercialization state, many challenges are still ahead. For example, qubit control must achieve sufficient fidelity, coherence and scalability. Cryogenic control technology is also critical for access to this technology. At each stage, qubits are protected from thermal noise during the process of sending control and readout signals to the processor. And of course, quantum computing requires specific algorithms. Are we today at the early stages of the quantum computing as we were 70 years ago for semiconductors? Maybe, but there are large differences between these technologies. First, there is no defined architecture for quantum computing as von Neumann had laid out for classical computers. Second, scalability is still an issue for qubit manufacturing in volume.
Moreover, we cannot say today that an equivalent to Moore’s law will exist for quantum computing in the future. However, quantum technologies are today in the engineering phase. Future developments in cryogenic, software and qubit manufacturing could speed up quantum computer advancements. At Yole Développement (Yole) we believe that quantum technologies are a real disruption in the sense they are based on totally new technologies, use cases, supply chain and business model evolutions!This is why we decided to publish this report.
A $3.2B MARKET IN 2030!
The total market value for quantum technologies, including computing, cryptography and sensing, will grow from about $480M in 2018 to $3.2B in 2030, with a 17% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Yole Analysts estimate the quantum computing hardware market value to be about $30M today, mostly for quantum annealers, growing to $650M in 2030. QaaS will be worth $1.37B in 2030. The market for Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) was worth $68M in 2019 and will grow to $785M in 2030. The quantum sensor market will grow from $400M in 2019 to $545M in 2030. Growth for quantum technologies will take off after 2026-2027 due to future announcements of available quantum computers and new use cases for quantum telecommunication, as shown.
Quantum computing is today attracting the most interest. And it also drives developments in telecommunications and sensing. Quantum communication is a more mature technology for short distances around 100km. Quantum sensors and clocks are still small markets. Although “universal” quantum computers able to run any type of complex algorithm are still far from maturity, quantum annealers used for optimization problems are being shipped today. For universal quantum computers, only a few companies, mostly the GAFAMs and Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, can afford the huge development costs.
Quantum communication and cryptography has been deployed for many years for financial and military applications. It involves the generation and use of quantum states and resources for communication protocols. The main applications are secure communication, long-term secure storage and simulation and other cryptography-related tasks.
Quantum networks are paving the way to a future “quantum web”, distributing quantum resources like entanglement, nonlocality, randomness and connecting remote devices and systems, called “entanglement for everyone”. It is based on QKD, which enables two communicating users to detect the presence of any third party trying to gain knowledge of the key. Quantum superposition and entanglement are key quantum properties to detect eavesdropping. Besides high end applications, 5G could be the next application for quantum cryptography.
Quantum sensors are the third field of development involving quantum technology. These transducers use quantum phenomena to measure a physical property, with higher sensitivity and precision compared to “non-quantum” sensors. Today, quantum technology is used in superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs), gravimeters and clocks. These sensors are used in high-end applications such as geophysics and scientific research. The use of SQUIDs in oil prospecting, mineral exploration, earthquake prediction and geothermal energy surveying is becoming more widespread as superconductor technology develops. They are also used as precision movement sensors in a variety of scientific applications, such as the detection of gravitational waves. Most commercial gravimeters use free-fall technology and very few companies have turned quantum technology into industrial gravimeter products. So far the companies who have succeeded are Muquans, Atomsensors, AOSense and Msquared. Atomic clocks are used in GPS satellites, in banking to synchronize network computers, and by power companies to analyze the exact location of a powerline break. Also new applications that are envisioned include in defense, synchronization of large networks, 5G, definition of the second, quantum simulation and fundamental research.
THE BATTLE ROYALE HAS STARTED FOR QUANTUM SUPREMACY
The excitement about quantum computing is proven by the high level of private and public investments over the past three years. Also, as quantum is considered as a national priority, with top world powers investing in quantum projects. China announced a $10B investment in 2020. The US is investing $1.2B over five years. Europe is investing €1.2B over 10 years, with strong efforts especially in the UK and France. Quantum computing is a highly competitive field with differing development status in different countries. North America today leads the number of qubits and software. Europe is strong in cryogenic technology, a critical part in the development of quantum computers. China is close behind the West, having probably manipulated 20-30 qubits. Japan is also in the race with development of annealers at Fujitsu.
The quantum computer market is currently divided into two types of computers and players:
- Quantum annealers as produced by D-Wave and Fujitsu. This is a current market. D-Wave has delivered four system generations over seven years.
- Companies developing universal quantum computers such as Google, which demonstrated quantum supremacy with 53 qubits, IBM, Rigetti, IonQ, Intel, ATOS and Alibaba.
1QBit, A*Quantum, A.P.E., Alibaba, Alice&Bob, Alpine Quantum, Amazon, Ankh.1, Anyon Systems, ApexQubit, AppliedQubit, Artiste-qb.net, AtomComputing, AtomSensors, Atos, Aurea Technology, Aurora Quantum Technologies, Automatski, Axion Technologies, Beit.tech, Black Brane System, Bleximo, BlueFors Cryogenics, Bosch, Boxcat, Bra-Ketscience, BraneCell, Cambridge Quantum Computing, Coax Co., ColdQuanta, ColdQuanta, Cryoconcept, Cryomech, Cryptalabs, Cryptomathic, CryptoNext Security, D slit technologies, Delft Circuits bv, Deutsche Telekom, D-wave, EeroQ, Elyah, Entanglement Partners, Entanglement Technologies, Entropica Labs, EvolutionQ, Fathom Computing,Fujitsu, Google, GTN LTD, h-bar, Honeywell, Horizon, HP, HQS, Huawei, HyperLight, IBM, ID Quantique, imasenic, InfiniQuant, Intel, Intelline, ionQ, IQM, Isara, Jos Quantum, Ketita Labs, KETS Quantum Security, KETS Quantum Security, Kiutra, Labber Quantum, LightOn, Lockheed Martin, Luminous, MagiQ, MDR, Microsoft, M-Labs, Msquared, Multiverse Computing, Muquans, Netramark, NQCG, Nu Quantum, NuCrypt, ONERA, Origin Quantum Computing, Orolia, Oxford Instruments, Oxford Quantum Circuits, Pasqal, Phase Space Computing, PhaseCraft, Photec, PhotonSpot, Post Quantum, ProteinQure, PsiQ, PTB, Qandi, Qasky, Qbitlogic, Qblox, QC Ware, Q-ctrl, QEYnet, Qilimanjaro, Qindom, Q-Lion, QLM, Qnami, Qontrol Systems, Qrithm, Qrypt, Qu&Co, Quandela, Quantastica, QuantFi, QuantiCor Security, Quantika, Quantopo, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Circuits Inc, Quantum Communications Hub, Quantum Factory, Quantum Impenetrable, Quantum Machines, Quantum Motion Technologies, Quantum Phi, Quantum Xchange, QuantumCTek, QuantumX, Quartiq, Qubalt , Qubit Reset LLC, Qubitekk, Qubitera LLC, QuDot, Quintessence Labs, QUiX, Qulab, Qunasys, Qunnect, Qunulabs, QuPIC , Quside, QuSpin, QxBranch, Rahko, RayCal, Raytheon, Rigetti Computing, Riverlane, Scontel, Seedevices, SeeQC.EU, SHYN, Silicon Quantum Computing Pty. Ltd, Single Quantum, SK Telecom, SoftwareQ, Solid State AI, Sparrow Quantum, SpeQtral, Strangeworks, Supracon, Syrlinks, TMD, Tokyo Quantum Computing, Toptica, Toshiba, Trustis, TundraSystems global ltd, Turing, TwinLeaf, Universal Quantum, VectorAtomic, Xanadu, Xofia, Zapata Computing, ZY4
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