The radar and 5G/V2X markets will both grow – one through market pull, the other through prospective
KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT
- Automotive radar market forecast (Mu & $M) through 2025
- V2X/GNSS market forecast (Mu & $M) through 2025
- Radar and V2X landscape and ecosystem mapping
- Technology overview and trends
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
Ecosystem identification and analysis:
- Determination of the application range
- Technical market segmentation
- Market trends and forecasts
Key players by market, and analysis Analysis and description of markets and technologies involved:
- Detailed applications per market segment
- Major actors worldwide
- Technology trends
- Main technical challenges
Table of contents
Context of the report 4
- Scope of the report
- What we saw, What we missed. What’s new?
Executive summary 15
Market forecast 30
- Overall radar module forecast (value, units)
- Overall radar MMIC forecast (value, unit)
- Radar forecast per frequency range, per technology
- Wafer start for radar application
- V2X and GNSS forecast (value, units)
- Overall forecast
Market trends 51
- Radar market drivers & segmentation
- Radar new use cases review
- V2X communication market drivers andsegmentation
- GNSS market dynamics
Market shares & supply chain 107
- Radar Tier1 market share
- Radar Tier2 market share
- Radar ecosystem analysis, business models, players’ strategy
- Commercial radars available and future product launch
- Radar regulation
- Overall M&A, joint-venture and collaboration
- V2X ecosystem analysis
Technology trends 142
- Radar technology description
- Radar technology roadmap
- V2X technology description
- V2X technology roadmap Perspectives 172
- Conclusion / Takeaways
- Radar basics
AUTOMATED DRIVING STRENGTHENS RADAR MARKET DYNAMICS
The advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) is well-established in the automotive industry, with features like automated emergency braking (AEB) becoming standard in 2018 for many middle-end cars from OEMs like Volkswagen, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mazda, and Hyundai. AEB has proven its worth in preventing accidents and fatalities, and radar is one of its main sensors.
Due to the complexity linked to environment perception (i.e. pedestrians crossing a street for instance), radar performance has been continuously improved for safety purposes, which has proven beneficial for the commercial automated driving (AD) market. And while AD and ADAS safety follow different dynamics, both benefit from each other.
We expect the radar market to reach $8.6B by 2025, at a 2015 CAGR of 15.6%. Market growth will depend on the specific radar frequency. 24GHz radar held a large part of the 2018 market with $2.2B, and will grow slightly until 2020 for features like blind-spot monitoring (BSM) before being replaced by 79GHz high-resolution short-range radar that enables mapping of the entire car’s surroundings. Many players (Veoneer, Aptiv, Hella) are also transitioning to 77GHz radar for short and middle-range sensing.
Today’s ADAS market is dominated by Continental, Bosch, Denso, and Hella. Meanwhile, the AD market has attracted new entrants and startups: Magna unveiled a 4D high-resolution module; Hitachi Automotive announced the smallest-ever long-range radar; Alps Electric’s ultra-short-range radar is featured in GM’s Cruise AD platform; and at least 15 startups are proposing novel approaches for high-resolution radar.
In 77GHz MMIC (Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuit)and chipsets the trend is towards higher integration, with market leaders NXP and Infineon creating integrated transceivers, and Texas Instruments even adding signal processing in its transceivers. The radar MMIC ecosystem is expected to move from an integrated device manufacturer (IDM) to a fabless/foundry model, with volumes increasing and the technology transitioning to advanced technology nodes. The IDMs of yesterday could become the fabless of tomorrow.
V2X SALES WILL GROW WITHOUT MARKET PULL
V2X is today divided into two separate entities: 5.9GHz band-based communication between cars and their environment, and 4G/5G-based cellular communication.
5.9GHz is being pushed by regulators for safety issues, and in developed countries will see widespread adoption on cars by 2022 – promising a global $1B market in 2025 for complete 5.9 GHz V2X modules. Only four companies are currently positioned to make these specific chipsets: the European company NXP with its DSRC/ITS-G5 development; the American company Qualcomm and the Chinese firm Huawei with their PC5 development; and the Israeli company Autotalks with its DSRC/ITS-G5 and PC5 developments.
5.9GHz V2X provides direct communication from the car to other vehicles and infrastructure, and does not involve network operators in the process. On the other hand, cellular-based connectivity is built and pushed by the cellular industry in order to enlarge their business model and penetrate the automotive market. Even though no actual use-case exists today (safety demonstrations often shown by marketing teams are just concepts and do not hold any commercial value), and after decades of criticism regarding their slowness to adopt novel developments, OEMs are finally equipping their products with 5G-upgradable communication systems as a future-proof approach to technology, and in anticipation of a hypothetical future 5G killer application. In this field, current players involved in car cellular equipment for infotainment and telematics, i.e. Qorvo and Qualcomm, will remain unchallenged, since 5G connectivity will not be a market nor a technical disruption from what is currently seen in the field.
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IS IN RADAR MORE THAN CONNECTIVITY
V2X in its entirety is not a disruptive innovation field for the electronics and RF components industry. 5.9GHz DSRC is based on WiFi, and its RF front-end is as simple as it can get. 4G LTE and 5G connectivity are based on old categories with an overall low number of antennas (four at most), a low number of bands, and a low modulation scheme compared to the phone industry. Architecture is less complex, but data handling is quite stringent and the innovation comes more from the Tier 1 integration of all connectivity into a single system, rather than from the RF front-end part.
On the other hand, radar has never stopped evolving. Starting from diodes and discrete parts, it now comprises compact MMIC components integrating all functions (power amplification, ramp generation, etc.). Rotating parts for beam-scanning have been removed thanks to the introduction of digital beam-forming.
Radar MMIC oversaw different generations of materials, from GaAs to bipolar SiGe, and now CMOS is catching up with SiGe for short-range as well as long-range detection. Indeed, the silicon CMOS downscaling has led to improved cut-off frequencies (above 200GHz), enabling stable operation for a 77GHz radar.
The semiconductor industry brought better performance, lower cost, and packaging/assembly innovation. Fan-out wafer-level packaging (FOWLP) and waveguide antenna both provide lower radio frequency (RF) losses at chip and system levels. Innovation extends to signal management and processing. Multiple waveform and modulation schemes have been proposed, from frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) to phase-modulated continuous wave (PMCW), similar to what happened in the cellphone market.
Signal processing may be the strongest innovation field. Powerful algorithms such as MUltiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC), used for direction-of-arrival (DoA) estimation, will evolve to enable the detection, separation, and tracking of more than 100 objects. Micro-doppler signature and deep-learning techniques will enable better object classification, as well as predictive behavior. Ultimately, radar will become a highly reliable cognitive sensor.
Acura, Ainstein, Alfa Romeo, Alps Electric, Analog Devices, Anzhi Auto, Aptiv, Arbe Robotics, Asahi Kasei Microdevice, Astyx, AT&T, Autoroad, AutoTalks, Audi, Azcom, Bentley, BAIC, BAW, BMW, Bosch, Bugatti, Buick, BYD, Calterah, CEI, Changan, ChengTech, Chevrolet, Chery, Chrysler, Cohda Wireless, Continental, Cradar, Cruise, Daihatsu, Denso-Ten, DongFeng, FAW, Fiat, Ford, Furukawa Electric, Geely, General Motor, Global Foundries, GMC, Great Wall, Hella, Hexagon, Hitachi, Honda, Huawei, Hyundai, Hyundai MOBIS, Geotab, Great Wall, IEE, IDT, IMSemi, IMST, InnoSent, Infineon, Infinity, IntiBeam, Jaguar, Jeep, Kapsch, Kathrein Automotive, Kia, Lexus, LG Innotek, Lincoln, Lite ON, Lyft, Magna, Mando, MediaTek, Mercedes, Metawave, MicroChip, Mini, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi Electric, Mobil Eye, Morgina, Nanoradar, NDK, Nidec Elesys, Nissan, Novatel, Novel IC, NTT Docomo, NuTonomy, Nvidia, NXP, Oculii, Olea, Omniradar, ON Semiconductor, Onstar, Ottomatika, Orange, Oryx, OriginGPS, Peugeot, Porsche, Quectel, Redpine Signals, Rastrac, Renault, Renesas, RFISEE, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Range Rover, Sakura Tech, Samsung, SAIC, SEAT, Siemens, Sierra Wireless, Sixth Sensor, Skyworks, Skoda, Smart Radar System, ST Microelectronics, Subaru, Symeo, Taoglas, Telit, Tesla, Texas Instrument, Tata, TomTom, Toyota, TowerJazz, TSMC, TTTech, U-blox, Uhnder, United Monolithic Semiconductors, Valeo, Vayyar, Volkswagen, Volvo, WaveSense, Waymo, WHST, Wistron Neweb Corporation, XeThru, Xilinx, Zendar, Zenuity, ZF-TRW and more…
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