OSATs, foundries, and IDMs all want to impact the growing advanced packaging market.
- Updated forecast of the semiconductor market, including memory and non-memory components
- Key system-level demand forecast: mobile & consumer, automotive, telecom & infrastructure
- Update of our advanced packaging market data (2019 – 2025):
- By revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts
- By advanced packaging platform: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D stacked, embedded die
- By different application segment
- Summary of COVID-19’s impact on all forecasts
- Analysis of the “U.S. – China effect” on the semiconductor business and supply chain
- Revised supply chain analysis, with focus on the impact of foundries entering the advanced packaging business
- Wafer-starts share and evolution, by manufacturers from different business models (IDM, OSAT, foundry) and by different advanced packaging platforms
- Updated financial analysis of the top 25 OSATs (2019 -2013), by different parameters: revenue, YoY growth, R&D, capex, gross profit, gross margin, net income, etc.
- M&A data update and different scenarios for OSATs, covering 2019 – 2025
- Advanced packaging market overview
- Drivers and dynamics, disruptions, and opportunities
- Market forecast
- Technology trends and forecasts
- Revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts, per platform and applications segment
- Future development, per platform
- Impact of front-end scaling
- Supply chain analysis
- Production overview, per player (IDM, OSAT, foundry)
- Supply chain analysis and shifting business models
- Financial analysis of the top 25 OSATs
- M&A analysis and recent developments
Table of Contents
- Report synergies
- Objectives, scope, glossary
- What we got right, what we got wrong
- Advanced packaging platforms
Noteworthy news for Advanced Packaging 16
3-page summary 18
Executive summary 22
- What happened in 2019 and what to expect in the next two years?
- Key slides from this report
Semiconductor business trends & outlook 78
- Semiconductor industry trends and market drivers
- Effect of the U.S.-China trade dispute on the semiconductor business and supply chain
Advanced packaging – technology trends 100
- What is driving the AP business?
- The impact of FEOL on packaging
- Packaging & technology roadmaps
- Focus on TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Electronics’ AP
Advanced packaging – market trends 139
- Forecasts, per AP platform
- Unit count
- Wafer count
- Forecast for AP platforms, by application
Different advanced packaging platforms – summary 159
- Analysis per platform, and future
- development: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D stacking, embedded-die, and advanced substrates
Players and supply chain 175
- Player landscape and positioning
- Business model shifts
- Production overview, per manufacturer
- Advanced packaging wafer breakdown, by manufacturer and by different technology: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D/2.5D IC
- Advanced packaging wafer breakdown, by business model: OSAT, IDM, foundry
Player financials 199
- TOP 25 OSATs – financial analysis
- Rankings by different parameters: revenue, gross profit, net income, R&D, etc.
- Recent developments for key OSATs
Mergers/Acquisitions and recent developments 239
- List of M&As in the semiconductor market, 2013 – present
- Analysis of M&A trends in the OSAT sector, and various scenarios for 2019 – 2024
- M&A scenarios for OSATs
Yole Développement presentation 265
PLAYERS ACROSS THE SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN ARE MAKING A STRONG PUSH INTO THE ADVANCED PACKAGING BUSINESS
Once the traditional, exclusive domain of OSATs and IDMs, today a paradigm shift is occurring in the assembly / packaging segment of the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain. Players from different business models (foundries, substrate/PCB suppliers, EMS/ODMs) are entering this market and cannibalizing OSATs’ share. Advanced packaging (AP) is moving from a package substrate platform to silicon, a shift that is providing opportunities for giants like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung to flex their muscles in the AP segment and emerge as key innovators of new AP technology. TSMC especially has emerged as the leader in terms of developing an innovative advanced packaging platform from fan-out (InFO) to 2.5D Si interposer (CoWoS), to 3D SoIC. Based on current packaging revenue rankings, TSMC is #4 among OSATs.
Meanwhile, other top OSATs such as ASE/ SPIL, Amkor, and JCET are investing in various advanced SiPs and fan-out technology to gauge their competition and increase their advanced packaging market share. IC substrate & PCB manufacturers, EMS companies, and display industry players are also entering the AP arena via panel-level fan-out packages, SiPs, and embedded dies (and passives) in organic substrates. This trend will continue in 2020 and beyond. All these supply chain shifts and their related implications, as well as a production overview of >25 major packaging suppliers per advanced packaging platform, are summarized and analysed in this report.
Deeper insight into financial performance enables us to create a link between technology evolution, supply chain shifts, and the overall success of individual players in this changing landscape. Furthermore, this report offers a closer look at the 2013 – 2019 financial evolution of the top 25 OSATs. Yole Développement (Yole) experts also investigate the various facets of the U.S.-China trade war and its potential effect on the semiconductor supply chain (including assembly and packaging) and consider whether a clear-cut winner/loser scenario will emerge.
STRONG GROWTH CONTINUES IN THE ADVANCED PACKAGING MARKET
In 2019 the total IC packaging market was $68B. Advanced packaging (AP) accounted for $29B and is expected to grow at a CAGR2019-2025 of 6.6%, reaching $42B in value in 2025. At the same time, the traditional packaging market will grow at a CAGR2019-2025 of 1.9% and the total packaging market will grow at CAGR2019-2025 of 4%, reaching $43B and $85B in value, respectively. With a CAGR2014-2025 of 6.1%, the advanced packaging market is expected to more than double its revenue – from $20B in 2014 to ~$42B in 2025. This is almost triple the expected growth for the traditional packaging market, estimated at a 2.2% CAGR2014-2025.
Due to the impact of Covid-19, the AP market is expected to decrease by 6.8% YoY in 2020. However, Yole Développement (Yole) expects this market to rebound in 2021, with ~14% YoY growth. The highest CAGR revenue is expected from 2.5D / 3D TSV IC, ED (in laminate substrate), and fan-out (21.3%, 18%, and 16%, respectively), as high-volume products further penetrate the market: for example, FO in mobile, networking, and automotive; 3D stacking in AI/ML, HPC, data centres, CIS, and 3D NAND; and ED in automotive, mobile, and base stations. By revenue segment, the mobile & consumer market constituted 85% of total advanced package revenue in 2019, and it will grow at a 5.5% CAGR to constitute 80% of AP revenue by 2025. Telecom & infrastructure is by revenue the fastest-growing segment (~13%) in the AP market, and will increase its market share from 10% in 2019 to 14% by 2025. Meanwhile, in terms of revenue the automotive & transportation segment will grow at 10.6% CAGR from 2019 – 2025, reaching ~$1.9B in 2025. Yole’s report explores the field of advanced packaging and presents a comprehensive yearly prospectus of the latest market and technology developments. It also offers a deep analysis of the supply chain, including player positioning, market share, and strategy/production per player (revenue, wafers). Moreover, the report includes revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts per packaging platform across various applications, along with a review of future production and possible developments during the 2019 – 2025 timeframe.
3D/2.5D STACKING AND FAN-OUT HAVE EMERGED AS THE FASTEST-GROWING ADVANCED PACKAGING PLATFORMS
Advanced packaging has become crucial for semiconductor innovation and is essential for bridging the scaling gap between die and PCB. The semiconductor industry is developing products for scaling roadmaps and functional roadmaps, with the scaling roadmap expected to continue (7nm & below) even though only three players remain, and the pace has slowed. The functional roadmap, which uses heterogenous integration and is supported by AP, has become more prominent. Indeed, advanced semiconductor packaging is observed to increase a semiconductor product’s value by adding functionality and maintaining/ increasing performance while simultaneously lowering cost. A variety of multi-die packaging (system-in-packages) are being developed in both the high- and low-ends for consumer, performance, and specialized applications that will address needs related to heterogeneous integration for functional performance and faster time-to-market.
Among the various AP technologies, flip-chip constituted ~83% of the market’s revenue in 2019. However, its share will decrease to ~77% by 2025, whereas the share for 3D stacking and fan-out will increase from ~ 5% each in 2019, to 10% and 7% respectively by 2025. 3D stacking and fan-out will continue growing at an impressive rate of ~ 21% and 16% respectively, and their adoption will further increase across various applications. The 3D stacking market’s growth is led by 3D memory (HBM and 3D DDR DRAM), 2.5D interposer-based die partitioning and heterogeneous integration, 3D SoC, Foveros, 3D NAND, and stacked CIS. The fan-out packaging market is also expected to show strong growth, with players from different business models entering the market. Led mostly by mobile, fan-in WLP will grow at a 3.2% CAGR during 2019 – 2025. Embedded die, though small in market size, is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR over the next five years, with demand driven by markets like telecom & infrastructure, automotive, and mobile.
This report focuses on the drivers for advanced packaging and the latest market dynamics, and then examines packaging technology evolution with the help of short- and long-term roadmaps. Also featured is an analysis of the trends and challenges related to advanced packaging technology, supported by detailed roadmaps for the specific packaging platforms across various applications.
Amkor, Analog Devices, Ardentec, Atmel, AOI Electronics, Apple, ARM, ASE, Avago, Bitmain, Broadcom, Carsem, China WLCSP, Chipbond, ChipMOS, Cisco, Cypress Semiconductor, Deca Technologies, Greatek, IC Interconnect, Fairchild, Facebook, Flip Chip International, Formosa, Freescale, Fujitsu, GlobalFoundries, Google, Hana Micron, Huawei, Inari Berhad, Intel, Intersil, J-Devices, JCET, King Yuan, Linear Technology, LB Semicon, Lingsen Precision, Maxim, MaxLinear, MediaTek, Microchip, Micron, Microsemi, Movidius, Nantong-Fujitsu, Nanium, Nepes, Nvidia, NXP, ON Semiconductor, OptoPAC, Orient Semiconductor, Powertech Technology, Renesas, Qualcomm, Rohm, Samsung, SilTech, Sigurd, SK Hynix, Softbank, SPIL, STMicroelectronics, STATS ChipPAC, STS Semiconductor, Teraprobe, Texas Instruments, Tianshui Huatian, Tong Hsing, Toshiba, TSMC, Unisem, UTAC, Walton Advanced Engineering, and more…
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