Advanced Packaging is now of strategic importance for IDMs, foundries, and OSATs, leading to more than US$10 billion in investment.
What’s new :
- Updated forecast of the semiconductor market, including memory and non-memory components
- Key system-level demand forecast: mobile & consumer, automotive, telecom & infrastructure
- Update of our advanced packaging market data (2020 – 2026):
- By revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts
- By advanced packaging platform: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D stacked, embedded die
- Analysis of the “U.S. – China effect” on the semiconductor industry and supply chain
- Updated 2020 – 2026 revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts, by various application segments: consumer & mobile, automotive & transportation, telecom & infrastructure, medical, industrial, defense & aerospace
- Revised supply chain analysis, with a focus on the impact of foundries entering the advanced packaging business
- Wafer-starts market shares and evolution by manufacturers from different business models (IDM, OSAT, foundry) and by various
advanced packaging platforms
- Amended financial analysis of the top 26 OSATs (2013 -2020) by various parameters: revenue, YoY growth, R&D, CapEx, gross profit, gross margin, net income, etc.
- M&A data update and different scenarios for OSATs, covering 2020-2026
Objectives of the report:
The “Status of the Advanced Packaging Industry” is a yearly overview report. The objectives of the report are as follows:
Advanced packaging market overview
- Drivers and dynamics
- Future applications
- Disruptions and opportunities
Technology trends and forecasts
- Revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts by platform
- Future developments by platform
- Impact of front-end scaling
- Scaling and functional roadmap
Supply chain analysis
- Overview of production by player (IDM, OSAT, foundry)
- Shifting business models
- Financial analysis of TOP 26 OSATs
TABLE OF CONTENT
- Report synergies
- Objectives, scope, glossary
- What we get right & what we get wrong ?
- Advanced packaging platforms
Noteworthy news on advanced packaging 16
Three-Page summary 18
Executive summary 22
Semiconductor business trends & outlook 78
- Semiconductor industry trends and market drivers
- Effect of US-China trade dispute on semiconductor business & supply chain
- Chip shortage issue
Substrate shortage analysis 100
Advanced packaging technology trend 109
- What is driving AP business ?
- Impact of FEOL on packaging
- Packaging & technology roadmaps
- Focus on TSMC, Intel & Samsung Electronics AP
Advanced packaging market trend 148
- Forecasts per adv. packaging platforms
- Unit count
- Wafer count
- Forecast of advanced packaging platforms by applications
Different advanced packaging platforms – summary 168
- Analysis per platform and future development : flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3d-stacking, embedded-die & advanced substrates
Players and supply chain 184
- Player landscape and positioning
- Business model shifts
- Overview of production per manufacturer
- Advanced packaging wafer breakdown by manufacturers by different technology: flip-chip, fan-out, fan-in, 3D/2.5D IC
- Advanced packaging wafer breakdown by business model: OSATs, IDMs & Foundries
Player financials 208
- Top 25 OSATs financial analysis
- Rankings by different parameters: revenues, gross profit, net-income, R&D etc.
- Recent development of key OSATs
Mergers/Acquisitions and recent developments 248
- List of M&As in semiconductor since 2013
- Analysis of M&As trend in OSATs sector and various scenarios for 2019-2024
- M&As scenarios for OSATs
Yole Développement presentation 274
ADVANCED PACKAGING MARKET TO REACH ~US$48B BY 2026
After a slowdown in 2020 due to COVID-19, the global economy is set to expand by 5.6% in 2021 (its strongest post-recession pace in 80 years) and 4.3% in 2022. Despite the COVID-19 induced global recession, the semiconductor market performed strongly in 2020. While demand by industry was uneven throughout the year due to global lockdowns, remote work and education, online entertainment, and shifts in consumer buying behavior, global semiconductor revenue grew by 6.8% YoY to reach $440 billion in 2020. Going forward, the market will grow by more than 15% to exceed half a trillion dollars by 2022. The Advanced Packaging (AP) market was worth $30B in 2020 and is expected to grow at a CAGR2020-2026 of ~8% to reach $47.5B in 2026. At the same time, the traditional packaging market will grow at a CAGR2020-2026 of 4.3%, and the total packaging market will grow at a CAGR2020-2026 of 6%, to reach $50B and $95.4B, respectively. Growing at a CAGR2014-2026 of 7.4%, the Advanced Packaging market is expected to more than double its revenue from $20B in 2014 to ~$47.5B in 2026. Due to ongoing momentum in the AP market, the share of AP in the total semiconductor market is increasing continuously and will reach almost 50% of the market by 2026. In terms of 300mm eq. wafer starts, traditional packaging still dominates with nearly 72% of the total market. However, AP is continuously increasing its share of wafers which will increase to 35% in 2026 to reach more than 50M wafers. The value of AP wafer is almost double that of traditional packaging, resulting in a high profit margin for the manufacturers. Flip-chip constitutes ~80% of the AP market in 2020 and will continue to command a significant portion (~72%) of the market by 2026. Of the different advanced packaging platforms, 3D/2.5D stacking and fan-out will grow at ~ 22% & 16%, respectively, and adoption will continue to increase across various applications. Mainly led by mobile, Fan-in WLP (WLCSP) will grow at a CAGR of 5% during 2020-2026. Though small (~$51M in 2020), the embedded die market is expected to grow at a 22% CAGR in the next 5 years, with demand driven by the telecom & infrastructure, automotive & mobile markets. Yole’s SAP2021 report explores the field of advanced packaging and presents a comprehensive yearly prospectus of the latest market and technology developments. SAP2021 also offers a deep analysis of the supply chain, including player positioning, market share, and strategy/production per player (revenue, wafers). Moreover, the report includes revenue, wafer, and unit forecasts per packaging platform across various applications, along with a review of future production and possible developments during the 2020 – 2026 timeframe.
OSATS DOMINATE THE OVERALL AP MARKET, BUT BIG FOUNDRIES & IDMS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY IN THE HIGH-END SEGMENT
Currently, OSATs dominate the AP market, accounting for ~70% of the market by wafer starts. However, in the high end of the packaging segment (2.5D/3D stacking, high-density fan-out), the big foundries, like TSMC, and IDMs, like Intel and Samsung, dominate the market. These players are investing heavily in AP technology and are instrumental in moving packaging from substrate to wafer /silicon platforms. TSMC earned ~$3.6B in advanced packaging revenue in 2020 and announced an estimated $2.8B CapEx in 2021 for its advanced packaging business specifically geared towards SoIC, SoW, and InFO variants, and CoWoS product lines. Intel’s investment in various AP portfolios, such as Foveros, EMIB, Co-EMIB, is key to implement its IDM 2.0 strategy as unveiled by new leadership. They plan to capitalize on external and internal manufacturing resources to focus on design wins and increased market share, growing Intel’s leadership in the client and data center domains. Samsung is aggressively investing in AP technology to boost its foundry business and emerge as a strong alternative to TSMC. On the other hand, OSATs are also investing heavily in AP technologies to compete in the lucrative market. OSATs’ CapEx spending increased 27% YoY in 2020 (~US$6B), which contributed to the very good financial year despite the COVID-19 impact. Overall, there is a paradigm shift in the packaging / assembly business, traditionally the domain of OSATs & IDMs. Players from different business models viz. Foundries, Substrate/PCB suppliers, EMS/DM, are entering the assembly/packaging business. The supply chain shifts and implications thereof as well as the production of >26 major packaging suppliers per advanced packaging platform are summarized and analyzed in the report.
ADVANCED PACKAGING TECHNOLOGIES TAKE CENTER STAGE
The semiconductor industry has entered a new age where mobile / consumer and other drivers, such as big data, artificial intelligence, 5G, highperformance computing (HPC), AR/VR/MR, cloud/edge computing, IoTs (including industrial IoT), smart automotive, industry 4.0, and hyperscale data centers are creating demand for system or subsystems which require high computing power, high speed, more bandwidth, low latency, low power consumption, more functionality, more memory, system-level integration, and a variety of sensors while keeping the cost down. Heterogeneous integration using AP technologies is key to fulfilling these system performance requirements and increasing the value of semiconductor products, adding functionality, and maintaining/increasing performance while lowering cost. This places immense pressure on package suppliers, with an increasing degree of customization required for each individual customer. Key technological trends in AP are: chiplet based approach to attain heterogeneous integration; opportunity for WoW in 3D NAND, HBM with 12 or 16 die stacked with pitch scaling to 35um; 3D SoC using hybrid bonding, with logic-logic or memorylogic stacked 3D IC for computing in data centers and HPC; large body size packages (~100x100mm2) to support AI, HPC, and networking; various innovations in packaging to support 5G mmWave in mobile double side molded BGA, low dielectric loss materials, Antenna in Package (AiP), etc.; highdensity fan-out development and adoption will accelerate for mobile, HPC & networking; chip last fan-out using RDL interposer development; large package all-side molded WLCSP packaging adoption to increase. This report focuses on the drivers for advanced packaging and the latest market dynamics and then examines packaging technology evolution with the help of short- and long-term roadmaps. Also featured is an analysis of the trends and challenges related to advanced packaging technology, supported by detailed roadmaps for the specific packaging platforms across various applications.
Amkor, Analog Devices, Ardentec, Atmel, AOI Electronics, Apple, ARM, ASE, Avago, Bitmain, Broadcom, Carsem, China WLCSP, Chipbond, ChipMOS, Cisco, Cypress Semiconductor, Deca Technologies, Greatek, IC Interconnect, Fairchild, Facebook, Flip Chip International, Formosa, Freescale, Fujitsu, GlobalFoundries, Google, Hana Micron, Huawei, Inari Berhad, Intel, Intersil, J-Devices, JCET, King Yuan, Linear Technology, LB Semicon, Lingsen Precision, Maxim, MaxLinear, MediaTek, Microchip, Micron, Microsemi, Movidius, Nantong-Fujitsu, Nanium, Nepes, Nvidia, NXP, onsemi, OptoPAC, Orient Semiconductor, Powertech Technology, Renesas, Qualcomm, Rohm, Samsung, SilTech, Sigurd, SK Hynix, Softbank, SPIL, STMicroelectronics, STATS ChipPAC, STS Semiconductor, Teraprobe, Texas Instruments, Tianshui, and more.
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