Glossary 2

Table of contents 3

Report scope and objectives 5

Report methodology 7

About the authors 8

Companies cited in this report 9

Who should be interested in this report 10

Yole Group’s related reports 11

Three-page summary 12

Executive summary 16

Introduction 66

• SiP definitions, historical perspectives, drivers
• Report focus

Combined market forecasts: system-in-ackage 82

• Market and forecasts (units, revenue)
• Market trends: explanation of SiP growth

Combined market share and supply chain: system-in-package 89

• Combined market share (2018 and 2019)  91
• Supply chain analysis  95
  • SiP manufacturers and key customers
  • SiP business model evolution
  • SiP business model is key to SiP success
  • Chapter conclusion

Combined roadmaps: system-in-package 108

• SiP roadmaps, by application
• SiP roadmaps, by players

Flip-chip and wire-bond: system-in-package 124

• Definition and process flow  125
• Market forecasts (units, revenue)  133
  • Mobile and consumer market
  • Telecom and infrastructure market
  • Automotive and transportation market
  • Medical, industrial, defense and aerospace markets
• Market trends
  • What drives FC and WB SiP in the mobile and consumer market?
  • What drives FC and WB SiP in telecom and infrastructure market?
  • Key drivers for FC and WB SiP
• Supply chain
  • Geographical mapping
  • Supply chain analysis
  • New business-model evolution
• Technology trends
  • By application: mobile and consumer
  • By application: telecom and infrastructure
  • By application: automotive and transportation
• oChapter conclusion

Fan-Out packaging: system-in-package 224

• Definition and focus
• oMarket forecasts
  • Package units (Mu)
  • Wafer volume (kwspy)
  • Revenue ($M)
• Market trends
  • FO SiP drivers
  • Integration capabilities
• Supply chain
  • Fan-out packaging – timeline and evolution
  • Global map of fan-out system-in-package players
  • Key players that commercialized FO SiP
  • FO SiP supply chain analysis
• Market share
  • 2019 FO SiP market share
  • Fo SiP market – player analysis
• Technology trends
  • FO SiP wafer-volume production – roadmap
  • Fan-out technology space
  • Commercialized fan-out SiP products
• oAdoption challenge
• oChapter conclusion

Embedded die: system-in-package 277

• Definition and focus
• Introduction
• Market forecasts
  • Revenue (value)
  • Package (units)
• Market trends
  • Roadmaps, market drivers, and technical requirements
• Supply chain
  • Players involved in an embedded die activity
  • Supply chain analysis – business model
• Technology trends
  • Segmentation (technology features and players’ activities)
  • Adoption rationale
  • Available commercial products, and future product launches
• Chapter conclusion

Conclusion 330

Yole Développement presentation 332

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT IS THE KEY FACTOR FOR SYSTEM-IN-PACKAGE BUSINESS SUCCESS

The demand for System-in-Package (SiP) has increased significantly in recent years, with SiP being adopted in a wide ranging of applications: from low-end (smaller package size and lower I/O count) to high-end (larger package size and higher I/O), and leveraging different packaging technologies.

Currently, the business model manufacturers choose to adopt is a make-or-break factor for SiP’s success. That is to say, the choice of business model is more crucial to SiP’s success than typical key factors such as materials, technology, and cost. SiP consists of multiple dies which can be packaged using existing technologies and infrastructure. However, if one die isn’t available due to delivery or quality problems, the whole SiP production process halts. Hence, SiP solutions will also require assembly and test capabilities. Therefore, a full turnkey SiP business model solution is ideally the best manufacturing option for the fabless or design house.

Unfortunately, in the current supply chain environment it is almost impossible for existing business models (foundry, OSAT, substrate maker, etc.) to establish a full turnkey without crossing over into a new business model to gain the required capabilities. Within the SiP context, new business model trends are starting to emerge. Yole Développement (Yole) believes both OSAT and foundry have the potential to progressively adopt a full turnkey. For example, foundries are attaining OSAT and substrate capabilities to gain control of testing and assembly capabilities in order to protect their interests if a yield issue arises towards the end of the supply chain.

Over the past few decades, OEMs, EMS, foundries, IDMs, and fabless have relied heavily on OSATs to lead or co-lead the development and up-scale of advanced packaging technologies. Based on a holistic analysis of the entire SiP supply chain, Yole believes OSAT and foundry business model evolution will be the empowering trends to strategically secure more SiP businesses. Highend OSATs can enable a full turnkey solution via good CapEx investment and M&A as a means of gaining substrate makers’ and EMS’ capabilities, attracting fabless at a lower cost and with codesign convenience. Meanwhile, foundries will manage M&A and CapEx trade-offs related to SiP requirements, in order to maximize their control over SiP quality and performance.

This report includes a detailed supply chain analysis of different advanced packaging platforms, SiP business model evolution, players’ strategy, commercialization trends, and more.

FLIP-CHIP AND WIRE-BOND DOMINATE SYSTEM-IN-BUSINESS, BUT AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES EXIST FOR FAN-OUT AND EMBEDDED-DIE PACKAGING

SiP has several advantages: form factor reduction, increased performance and functional integration with electromagnetic interference (EMI) isolation, design flexibilities compared to stand-alone packages/SoC, and lower cost.

Presently, flip-chip and wire-bond technologies are being leveraged in high-end and low-end SiP applications, 2D/2.5D/3D heterogeneous SiP. Low-end SiPs are driven by form factor and performance for 5G and connectivity. High-end SiPs are driven by cost reduction, hence the birth of chiplets by industry and the lack of large IC substrate supply in the market. With the latest surge in demand for higher-end at larger-sized package, manufacturers have commenced a new wave of unprecedented investment tailored for Flip-Chip / Wire-Bond System-in-Package (FC & WB SiP). Also, OSATs’ uniqueness allows for a smoother reposition in order to gain capabilities for full turnkey SiP solution in a FC & WB SiP ecosystem.

The FC & WB SiP market is valued at $12.2B (which accounts for more than 90% of SiP packaging revenue), and it is expected to reach $17.1B by 2025, growing at a 6% CAGR2019-2025. FC & WB SiP lead the way to create value for both low-end and high-end applications, and generate new opportunities in the supply chain.

Fan-out (FO) packaging has emerged as one of the main packaging options for SiP. However, SiP’s potential in FO is still fairly limited by yieldcost concern with multi-die processing. As a result, players that are currently exploring and manufacturing FO SiP products are already active fan-out players with strong know-how and production maturity. This market has been dominated by TSMC since 2017, with >90% market share in FO SiP for 2019. The key application for fanout SiP will remain mobile & consumer. However, data centres, 5G, and autonomous vehicle trends will drive fan-out SiP adoption in the telecom, infrastructure, and automotive applications.

Embedded Die (ED) technology is moving from a single embedded die into multiple embedded dies. The complexity and size of IC substrate and board will increase, therefore the ASP (for some applications in certain markets) will appreciate. ED SiP growth (units) will be around 27% over the 2019 – 2025 forecast period, while ED SiP packaging revenue will exceed $315M by 2025, with automotive, telecom & infrastructure, and mobile accounting for majority of this revenue. Although ED SiP packaging revenue is very small, the growth rate is very strong.

This report focuses on SiP technology trends, roadmaps, market drivers, technical challenges, market status, etc., by different packaging platforms across various applications.

DRIVEN BY HETEROGENEOUS INTEGRATION DEMAND ACROSS VARIOUS APPLICATIONS, THE SYSTEM-IN-PACKAGE BUSINESS WILL REACH ~$19B BY 2025

Various SiP factors, including the increasing adoption of SiP in mega-trend drive applications like 5G, connectivity, networking, servers and IoT; manufacturers’ evolving business models; growing cost concerns of advanced silicon technology nodes for SoC; and the strong advancement in packaging technologies are all expected to drive the SiP market’s growth. The SiP market attained a massive package revenue of $13.4B in 2019, and will grow at a 6% CAGR to achieve $18.8B in 2025. SiP’s biggest market is mobile & consumer, (CAGR ~5%), followed by telecom & infrastructure (CAGR 11%) and automotive (CAGR 11%). These figures are not surprising, since these markets spearheaded most of the new packages where footprint reduction and improved performance were key parameters. Within mobile & consumer, handset held the biggest portion of SiP in 2019. However, the fastest growing momentum comes from other end-devices with smaller market size. For the next five years,wearables, Wi-Fi routers, and IoT will show significant growth in the SiP market space, with the main drivers being 5G and sensors. Although handsets (especially smartphones) are saturating the market, there are new opportunities to adopt SiP due to 5G demands. Within telecom & infrastructure, base stations and servers are both expecting double-digit CAGR growth, with base stations having a whopping 41% CAGR. This is primarily driven by 5G base stations needing more SiP integrated by Flip Chip Ball Grid Array. Also, servers include high-end SiPs like CPU, xPU (chiplets, si interposer, FO), and Field Programmable Gate Arrays.

For Automotive & Transportation, ADAS and infotainment are the main drivers. Although the camera is a very small portion, its growth is the highest with expected SiP platforms adopted for ADAS mono, stereo, and triple. Also, computing power is needed for Vision Processing Unit (VPU) and infotainment. The bulk of it is MEMS & sensors, which consists of applications like pressure, inertial measurement units (IMUs), optical MEMS, microbolometers, oscillators, and environmental sensors. For other markets like medical, industrial, and defense & aerospace, the SiP size is significantly smaller, although growth is reasonably strong in robotics and IoT-related applications.

This report includes Yole’s SiP market forecast (2018 – 2025) by units and revenue, and by different packaging platforms, across various applications – including the current manufacturer’s status and their market share.

Access, Amkor, Analog Devices, Apple, ARM, ASE, Avago, AT&S, Bosch, Broadcom, Carsem, China WLCSP, Chipbond, ChipMOS, Cisco, Continental, Cyntec, Cypress Semiconductor, Deca Technologies, Dyconex, Facebook, Fitbit, Flexceed, Flip Chip International, Formosa, Fraunhofer IZM, Freescale, Fujikura, Fujitsu, GaN Systems, General Electric, GlobalFoundries, Google, Hana Micron, Hella, Huawei, IMEC, Inari Berhad, Infineon, Intel, J-Devices, JCET, King Yuan, Lenovo, Linear Technology, LB Semicon, MediaTek, Medtronic, Meiko, Microchip, Microsemi, Nanium, Nepes, Nvidia, NXP, Nokia, ON Semiconductor, Orient Semiconductor, Powertech Technology Inc, Renesas, QDOS, Qorvo, Qualcomm, Rohm, Sarda Technologies, Samsung Electronics, SCC, Schweizer, SEMCO, SIMMTECH, SK Hynix, Shinko, ShunSin, SiPlus, Softbank, SONY, SPIL, Spreadtrum, STMicroelectronics, STATS ChipPAC, STS Semiconductor, Taiyo Yuden, TDK, Teraprobe, Texas Instruments, Tianshui Huatian, Tongfu Microelectronics, Tong Hsing, Toshiba, TSMC, Unimicron, Unisem, USI, UTAC, Wurth Electronics, and many more…