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DRAM Service – Memory Research
Jun.2018

illustration_memory-dram-1
$35 000

If you want more information about this monitor, please contact us!

Description

This monitor is not part of our Bundled Offer and Full Yole Développement yearly subscription.

 Yole DRAM flyer cover2018 will be the peak year for DRAM market value, with price moving down Q3.

MEMORY IS NOW THE PRIMARY MARKET SEGMENT FOR SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS

The hyper-growth of the memory market in 2017 positioned both DRAM and NAND memory as leading devices within the semiconductor market. With the memory markets significantly impacting the semiconductor industry in terms of profits, CAPEX, and sales, Yole Développement has decided to publish two new reports covering the fast-moving DRAM and NAND markets. Beginning this year, Yole Développement will publish world-class research, data, and insights covering the memory markets in quarterly installments that analyze the evolution of the DRAM and NAND markets in terms of revenue, shipments, CAPEX, and near-term price evolution, as well as demand per market segment, DRAM and NAND technology evolution, and detailed profiles of main suppliers. Yole Développement will also introduce DRAM and NAND monthly pricing monitors to track the price evolution of key components and packaged solutions.

 

MEGATRENDS ARE PUSHING MORE DRAM INTO PRODUCTS, LEADING TO A RECORD 2018

The megatrends boosting the entire semiconductor industry have a very positive impact on the memory market, especially DRAM. Mobile phone in general and the 5G revolution in particular, along with hyperscale data center, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning, and autonomous driving are all pushing DRAM adoption, with a CAGR of more than 22% for bit demand over the next five years.
The DRAM market is constantly evolving and changing. New Chinese suppliers threaten the current market balance, and emerging memory technologies are poised to cannibalize huge chunks of DRAM demand while the demand-drivers of the past (PCs and smartphones) lose steam and no longer push industry demand.
The DRAM market’s future promises to be as dynamic as its past. Yole Développement’s quarterly and monthly monitors will answer the pressing questions facing the industry, including:
Will the three primary DRAM suppliers - Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron - continue to manage supply and drive industry revenue to even higher levels?

  • Will China’s entrance in the DRAM market disrupt the current market balance?
  • Will DRAM manufacturing’s enormous technical challenges and the lack of access to DRAM intellectual property prove too difficult for China to overcome?
  • What demand segments will emerge to compensate for the diminishing PC and smartphone categories?
  • How much farther will the DRAM roadmap extend? Is there a future beyond 14nm?
  • How will AI and machine learning impact DRAM demand and the technology roadmap?
  • Will autonomous vehicles meaningfully impact the DRAM market? If so, when?
  • Will DRAM capital expenditures continue their recent trend upwards, or will capital intensity climb too high and threaten supplier stability?
  • Will DRAM wafer demand push the overall semiconductor market into drastic undersupply?
  • Will HBM2 emerge as the dominant DRAM graphics technology?
  • When will LPDDR5 and DDR5 become available, and will they ever dominate the market?
  • Have the recent DRAM price increases hurt demand, or is DRAM demand-elasticity dead

Yole Développement provides its opinions and answers all of these questions on a quarterly basis with its new DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and DRAM Monthly Pricing Monitor.

 Yole DRAM market dynamics per quarter

WHAT DO THE UPCOMING QUARTERS HOLD?

Strong bit growth and increasing price will drive revenue up $28B for the current quarter. 2018 prices are expected to increase by more than 22% (detailed in the Quarterly Monitor), leading to another record year for DRAM, with revenue over $110B - a 50% jump from 2017.
Total 2018 growth will easily reach a new high, thanks to strong pricing trends and modest shipment growth. The emergence of Chinese DRAM production by 2020 will reduce revenue as the market shifts into pronounced oversupply.
Bit growth is expected to remain around 20% - 25% over the long-term: lower than historical bit growth because of tech difficulties linked to shrinking lithography. As a direct impact, bit growth is becoming more expensive and more processing steps are needed with each migration node because of multi-patterning, and therefore more cleanroom space per wafer-out.
Prices are expected to begin declining in 2H/18, down through 2022. Supply will exceed demand in 2019 and prices are expected to fall modestly.

 

Yole DRAM market forecast

DRAM QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR AND MONTHLY PRICING MONITOR - CONTENT

The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and DRAM Monthly Pricing Monitor contain all of the data related to DRAM revenue per quarter, DRAM shipments, pricing per DRAM type, near and long-term revenue, market share per quarter, CAPEX per company, and market demand/supply forecast, as well as a complete analysis and details of the demand side with a deep dive into data centers, mobile, automotive, graphics, and PC.
For the top seven players (Apple, Micron, Nanya, Powerchip, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Winbond), the DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor provides a detailed analysis of CAPEX, shipments, wafer production per technology (process mix) and per fab, as well as the expected impact of DRAM technology changes.
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

  • Excel database with all historical and forecast data
  • PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
  • Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for on-demand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news.

 

WHAT ABOUT THE DRAM SERVICE - MEMORY RESEARCH?

A full package:
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

  • Excel database with all historical and forecast data
  • PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
  • Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for on-demand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news


Frequency:

Receive every quarter the updated Market Monitor documents and every month the updated Pricing Monitor documents


Options:

  • Pricing Monitors can be bought individually (NAND, DRAM or both)
  • Memory Research are available for DRAM, NAND and both

Check the different options on the order form page.

 

 

Table of contents

DRAM Quaterly Market Monitor (PPT file)

 

 

DRAM market overview


> Revenue
> Shipments
> Quarterly revenue - near and long-term
> Pricing
> Market share
> CAPEX
> Sufficiency
> Near-term pricing outlook

 

 

DRAM demand


> Segment bit demand and share
> Data center
> PC
> Mobile
> Graphics
> Automotive

 

 

DRAM technology


> Shipments by technology
> Shipments by density
> Mobile shipments
> Graphics shipments
> 3DXpoint

 

 

DRAM supply


> Industry wafer production
> Industry process mix
> Bits per wafer
> Bit growth - sources
> Samsung details
> SK Hynix details
> Micron details
> Nanya details

 

A complete Excel file with the analysis’ numerical data is included with the PPT presentation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

DRAM Monthly Pricing Monitor (Excel file)

Monthly price evolution from 2017 - 2019 for:

 

Mobile DRAM ($/unit)


> LPDDR2 8Gb
> LPDDR2 16Gb
> LPDDR3 8Gb
> LPDDR3 12Gb
> LPDDR3 16Gb
> LPDDR3 24Gb
> LPDDR4 16Gb
> LPDDR4 32Gb
> LPDDR4 48Gb

 

 

Server DRAM ($/unit)


> DDR3 2GB R-DIMM
> DDR3 4GB R-DIMM
> DDR3 8GB R-DIMM
> DDR3 16GB R-DIMM
> DDR4 8GB R-DIMM
> DDR4 16GB R-DIMM
> DDR4 32GB R-DIMM
> DDR4 64GB R-DIMM

 

 

PC DRAM


> DDR3 1GB DIMM
> DDR3 2GB DIMM
> DDR3 4GB DIMM
> DDR3 8GB DIMM
> DDR4 4GB DIMM
> DDR4 8GB DIMM

 

 

Components


> SDR 16Mb
> SDR 64Mb
> DDR 256Mb
> DDR 512Mb
> DDR2 512Mb
> DDR2 1Gb
> DDR3 1Gb
> DDR3 2Gb
> DDR3 4Gb
> DDR4 4Gb
> DDR4 8Gb

Companies cited

Apple
Micron
Nanya
Powerchip
Samsung
SK Hynix
Winbond
and more...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Market forecast through 2023 in Gb, US$, units, wafers, $/Gb
  • Supplier market shares (Micron, Nanya, Powerchip, Samsung, SK Hynix, Winbond) from 2015 to present by revenue (US$), bit shipments (Gb), geography (US$),segment (US$), average selling price ($/Gb)
  • Demand forecast through 2023 by category (PC, data center, mobile, consumer, Auto…) in units, revenue (US$), bit demand (Gb)
  • Production forecast through 2019 by supplier for wafer production (wpm, by Fab), bit production (Gb, by Fab), process mix (% of wafers), average process node (nm, bit basis & wafer basis), average Gb per wafer