A steady growth platform with imminent disruptions ahead. How will Fan-In adapt to SiP growth and handle uncertainty in future markets?
Fan-In: A steady growth platform awaiting disruption
The Fan-In Packaging platform has been a successful and steadily growing platform for over a decade. It remains appealing as an inherently unmatched combination of smallest package form factor and low cost. Due to these features, historically it found penetration in form driven handsets and tablets and has maintained growth within these devices. It is estimated that more than 90% of Fan-In packages today are found in the mobile segment. With respect to Fan-In adoption, in today’s high end smartphones already more than 30% of all packages are Fan-In packages. Therefore, Fan-In packaging spread in the sweet spot mobile segment continues.
While the Fan-In packaging growth pace until now could be described as steady and stable, the global semiconductor market shifts and rising uncertainty over future applications will inevitably impact the outlook of Fan-In packaging as well. The smartphone market leading Fan-In adoption is maturing, with smartphone unit growth dropping from 35% in 2013 to 8% in 2016 and forecasted at 6% by 2020. While the trend is not favourable in terms of high growth expectations, smartphones are still expected to be the leading semiconductor driver with more than 2 billion units in 2020.
Primary Fan-In devices are WiFi/BT combos, transceivers, PMIC and DC/DC converters (~50% of total production) followed by a variety of analog/digital/mixed signal devices including MEMS and image sensors. The biggest challenge the Fan-In platform will be facing in the future is functional integration of devices into SiP form. Figure below indicates the impact of SiP growth on Fan-In unit production, decreasing the overall CAGR from 9% to 6%. A detailed analysis of SiP growth is performed in the report.
Functional integration brings uncertainty to the Fan-In platform
Apart from the global slowdown of smartphone growth, several underlying trends could significantly change the Fan-In landscape. The following Fan-In market disruptions are considered and analyzed in detail in the report:
- Integration of functions found today in Fan-In into the SiP platform
- Limited adoption of Fan-In within IoT end devices due to competitive lead frame based packages such as QFN
- Transfer of designs from Fan-In to Fan-Out packaging
In order to increase functionality and potentially decrease overall time to market and packaging costs, multichip packaging in the form of SiPs is already under way. While a variety of SiPs are already present in smartphones, a stronger push for further integration of multiple dies in one package can be expected especially in the RF and power management domains. This implies that as a consequence of functional integration, a significant portion of Fan-In dies could be integrated in SiPs. In the report, two scenarios are analysed – disruptive SiP impact and a negligible SiP impact on the Fan-In platform.
In the case of negligible SiP impact, the Fan-In packaging services market is expected to rise from 3.1 $B in 2015 to 4.9 $B to in 2021 with a CAGR of 8%. The Fan-In Wafer count is expected to rise from 3.7 to 5.9 million 300mm eq. wafers from 2015 to 2021, respectively, with a CAGR of 8%. Figure below indicates the impact of SiP growth on Fan-In wafer production, decreasing the overall CAGR from 8% to -2%. The impact of SiP growth is greater on wafer level than on unit level, due to the size of particular devices expected to be integrated first. The report brings a full revenue, wafer and unit forecast by IC device type from 2015 to 2021 as well as a detailed impact of SiP growth.
In terms of IC devices found in Fan-In, MEMS devices are expected to exhibit highest growth with an 18% unit count growth. On the other hand, CIS are forecasted to continue declining resulting in a drop in Fan-In usage of -3%. Analog/Mixed signal/Digital devices are expected to maintain solid growth between 8% and 9%, depending on IC device. Special sections of the report are dedicated to MEMS and CIS analysis including detailed revenue, wafer and unit forecasts by sensor type and application, market dynamics, respective supply chain and wafer size splits. On a whole, the global Fan-In supply chain is analysed indicating market shares by customer and manufacturer and global demand by IC device type. Special attention is directed towards capacity increase and manufacturer market share in China. Moreover, the growth of the outsourced post wafer bumping model is described. Additionally, a status report is given on Fan-In readiness and adoption in LED and Power domains.
THE IMPLICATIONS OF SiP IMPACT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED TODAY
Particular focus in the report is placed on capacity increase and investment analysis by wafer diameter for both SiP impact scenarios. With respect to functional integration of Fan-In dies into SiPs, especially in the RF and power management domains, an intriguing forecast is built. Figure below depicts the Fan-In manufacturing market shares in 2015 indicating OSATs lead manufacturing with inclusion of an IDM (TI) and foundry (TSMC). STATS ChipPAC exhibits the highest jump due to acquisition by JCET. From the design side, Qualcomm and Broadcom drive ~50% of the total Fan-In market. Further details can be found in the report.
Fan-In packaging technology as an adaptable chameleon
When it comes to packaging technology, most of the attention in the previous year has been put on the development of Fan-Out wafer level packaging. However Fan-In packaging follows a development path and roadmap of its own and apart from further scaling, still brings other type of innovation such as 6-side mold protection. The report brings a detailed overview of two Fan-In technology roadmaps: a HVM and production ready roadmap. The roadmaps include aspects such as I/O count, L/S, bump pitch, package thickness, size and others. Furthermore, Fan-In packages are analysed from the aspect of utilized IC technology node by and the likelihood of further front end scaling of IC devices found in Fan-In. While the HVM roadmap of Fan-In scales slower than for Fan-Out, the Fan-In platform has essentially the capability of matching most of the Fan-Out scaling parameters having a production ready roadmap on standby.
With respect to global semiconductor trends and functional integration trends, the today still steady Fan-In platform is facing imminent disruption. It is no longer a question if the disruption will happen but when and to what extent. This report aims to provide a full analysis of the Fan-In platform as well as a detailed outlook from market to technology in order to aid industry leaders in decision making to come.
what's new in the Report
In addition to updates of the previous report, the 2016 business update also features:
- Detailed analysis of Fan-In disruptions, as a consequence of emerging semiconductor trends
- Fan-In outlook with respect to the impact of functional integration
- Particular focus on capacity increase and market shares in China
- Status reports on LED and power segments
- Analysis of outsourced post wafer bumping services
Objectives of the Report
This report’s objectives are to:
- To provide a market overview of the Fan-In landscape
o Emerging and declining applications
o Forecasts until 2021: Revenue, wafer count, unit count
o Identify main players and provide supply chain analysis
o Market shares by business model, wafer size and applications
- To provide analysis of technology trends
o Technology roadmap
o Latest technical innovations
- To assess the future development of the Fan-In market
o Outlook on potential disruptions: new market drivers, infrastructure, expanding business models, new entries, competing packaging solutions
o Impact on supply chain and technology roadmap