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III-V Epitaxy Equipment & Applications Market
May.2012

mocvd cost of ownership drivers
5 990 €

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Description

YOLE IIIV Epitaxy 2012Anticipating the next investment cycle after the dip. 


A US$6.1 billion opportunity through the end of the decade

MOCVD and MBE represent essentially 100% of the epitaxial tools used in the commercial production of the devices covered in this report. The corresponding combined revenue opportunity for MBE + MOCVD is estimated to be around US$6.1 billion for the 2012-2020 periods.
LED is by far the single largest application for MOCVD. In 2010 and 2011, the MOCVD market experienced the largest investment cycle in its history driven by a combination of:
        • Demand for LED backlit LCD TV
        • Subsidies by the Chinese central and local governments
        • Anticipation for the general lighting market.
This has put the market into a significant overcapacity situation that could take 12-18 months to absorb.  The next investment cycle driven by lighting applications and expected to start in 2013 will be more limited than the previous cycle due to improvements in equipment throughput and yields. Following this cycle, further Cost of Ownership (COO) improvements offered by the next generation of MOCVD reactors should justify the replacement of 2-generation-old reactors installed during the 2010-2011 boom and drive a last small equipment cycle in the second half of the decade. By then, Power GaN will also represent a substantial upside for reactor makers.

Annual New Epi-reactor Sales in Units

Overall MBE use is heavily driven by R&D systems (>50% of the total market) and laser applications (telecom, industrial, medical, research) that are not covered in this report.

For the applications covered in this report, the MBE market will be essentially driven by the continuous growth in the cell phone and wireless applications that are making heavy use of GaAs based RF components. Emerging applications like smart grid and the trend toward increasing connectivity and “intelligence” incorporated in many consumer products will provide further opportunities. However, alternative technologies (Si CMOS, LDMOS, SoS, HR SOI etc…) represent a potential threat and could capture shares of the GaAs RF market and reduce the opportunity for MBE. In addition, MOCVD is making progress in HEMT manufacturing. HCPV however could provide a small potential upside for MBE makers.

The report is also covering the trends in reduction of Cost of Ownership (COO) of MOCVD & MBE. The major technical & R&D trends are analyzed to highlight possible business impacts.Quantifications are provided for each application markets in term of devices, wafer start and equipment’s.

MOCVD Cost of Ownership Drivers

MOCVD and MBE equipment market are duopolies but many emerging players could change the landscape:

Aixtron and Veeco are leading in MOCVD, together representing 96% of the market in 2011. Production MOCVD are complex systems. Design and optimization require expertise in multiple fields including flow dynamics, thermodynamics, chemistry, mechanical and electrical engineering. Technological barriers to entry are fairly high. More than 15 emerging players have been identified but so far have been struggling to capture any sizeable share of the market. But the pressure is mounting and established MOCVD makers will need to maintain that technology gap to keep emerging competitors at bay. The main battlefield is that of total cost of ownership. Established MOCVD makers all have technology roadmaps to enable COO reduction of 3X - 4X within the next 5 years through a combination of improved yields, throughputs and precursor utilization efficiency.

For MBE, Riber and Veeco are the only 2 players offering large capacity / large throughput MBE production tools for volume manufacturing. We expect they will maintain this dominant position. However, there are about 10 other MBE manufacturers offering R&D or pilot production systems that also have a strong presence on the general MBE market (DCA, SVT, Eiko…).
The report includes a very detailed analysis of all technology trends and key cost drivers.

Potential overcapacity in MO precursor supply:

The Metal Organic precursor market will also be essentially driven by LED applications. But MOCVD reactor technology improvements (yield, consumption, wafer size…) will lower the amount of TMGa and TMIn needed per cm² of epiwafer.
The 2010 metal organic shortage ended mid 2011 thanks to aggressive capacity expansion by leading suppliers. Further capacity expansion plans from established and emerging suppliers could come online within the next 3 years.  If executed as announced, we expect significant oversupply starting from 2012 that could continue through 2016 and beyond. This situation could put pressure on prices. Further MO synthesis technology improvements could provide opportunity for cost reductions. However, the usually volatile prices of raw Indium and Gallium also have a significant impact on cost.

The report provides Metal Organic precursor price, volume & revenue trends. 

Table of contents

Acronyms
Table of Contents
Report Scope
Executive Summary p.6
> Introduction
> Applications
> MOCVD
> MBE
> MO Precursors
> Comparison of III-V epitaxy techniques
> Company applications and technologies

Overview of III-V Epitaxy Techniques: MOCVD p.17

> Introduction
> Chemistry
> System Overview
> System Overview Examples
> Reactor Design: Overview
> Reactor Design: Close Coupled Showerhead
> Reactor Design : Planetary
> Reactor Design: Turbodisc
> Reactor Design: Others
> Cost of Ownership Drivers: Overview
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Batch size Evolution
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Batch size for Nitride reactors
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Batch size for As/P reactors
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Transition to larger wafers.
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Growth rate
> Downtime and chamber cleaning
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Precursor Efficiency
> Cost Of Ownership Drivers: Illustration
> Main Players: Market shares
> Main Players: Other / emerging players
> Conclusions

Overview of III-V Epitaxy

Techniques: MBE p.47
> Introduction
> System Overview
> Illustration (Production System)
> Key Parameters
> MBE Sources: Overview
> MBE Sources: Design
> MBE Sources: Valved Crackers
> MBE Sources: Economics
> GaN Epitaxy with MBE
> MBE Main Players: Overview
> Riber: III-V R&D and Production Equipment
> Veeco: MBE Offering
> DCA Instruments
> SVT Associates
> Omicron / Oxford Instrument
> Eiko Corporation
> CreaTec / MBE Components / Tectra
> Conclusions

Overview of III-V Epitaxy Techniques: Others p.68

> Plasma Assisted MOCVD: Overview
> Plasma Assisted MOCVD: Potential Benefits
> Plasma Assisted MOCVD: Potential Drawbacks
> Plasma Assisted MOCVD: Key Players
> Liquid Phase Epitaxy: Overview
> Liquid Phase Epitaxy: GaN Epitaxy
> HVPE: Overview
> HVPE: Applications
> HVPE: Commercial Reactors

HB LED Applications - Market p.79

> Introduction to HB LEDs
> GaN LED Chip Design Overview
> LED Manufacturing Process
> LED market segments: Overview
> High Brightness LED Package Segmentation
> Low and Mid Power LEDs: Examples
> High Power Packages: Examples
> Revenue Forecast by Application
> Recent Trends
> LED Substrates
> LED Wafer Starts

HB LED Applications - Epitaxy p.92

> GaN LED Structures
> GaN LED Epitaxy Challenges:Overview
> GaN LED Epitaxy Challenges: Wafer Curvature
> GaN LED Epitaxy Challenges: Solutions
> In Situ Metrology
> Cost Aspects: Packaged LED cost Roadmap
> Cost Aspects: Packaged LED Cost structure
> Cost Aspects: GaN LED Epitaxy Cost Structure
> The Cost of Yields
> Epitaxy Cost Reduction Opportunities
> Sorting an Binning: Overview
> Sorting and Binning: Binning Yields
> LED Epitaxy Cycle Time: Overview
> LED Epitaxy Cycle Time: Cluster tools
> LED Epitaxy Cycle Time: Hybrid Reactors
> GaN LED Epitaxy: Conclusions
> ROY LED Epitaxy: Overview
> InGaAlP LED Structures: Overview
> InGaAlP LED Structures: Substrate Removal
> InGaAlP LED Epitaxy: Overview

RF GaAs Applications - Market 118

> Introduction
> Benefits of GaAs for RF Applications
> Applications: Overview
> Value Chain
> Applications: Details
> Device Technologies:
> Market Drivers:: Handsets Shipment Forecast (Units)
> Market Drivers: Handsets GaAs Content
> iPhone 3G& iPhone 4S GaAs Content
> GaAs $ Content in Handsets
> Market Drivers: WLAN Chipset Forecast (Units)
> GaAs $ content in WLAN
> Emerging Applications: Smart Grid
> Emerging Applications: Smart Lighting
> RF GaAs Components: Power Amplifiers
> RF GaAs Components: Antenna Switches
> Comparison of Switch Technologies
> Competing Technologies
> RF GaAs Wafer Starts Breakdown
> RF GaAS applications: Conclusions

RF GaAs - Epitaxy p.143

> Examples of HBT Epitaxial Structures:
> Example of HEMT Epitaxial Structure
> HEMT and MOCVD
> MBE Productivity: Overview
> MBE Productivity: Examples
> Main Players: Technology & Main products
> Main Players: Capacity per Technology (MBE/MOCVD)
> Captive and Merchant Capacity
> Conclusions

HCPV Applications - Market p.153

> Solar Electricity Generation: Overview
> Solar Electricity Generation: Demand
> HCPV System Components: Overview
> HCPV System Components: System Efficiency
> HCPV System Components: Examples
> HCPV Cells: Overview
> HCPV Cells: Historical Efficiency Trends
> HCPV Market: Economics
> HCPV Market: Benefits
> HCPV Market: Drawbacks
> HCPV Cost: Cell Efficiency and System Cost
> 2011 to 2018 HCPV Market Forecast: Key Assumptions
> HCPV Installation Forecast
HCPV Applications - Epitaxy p.168
> HCPV Epiwafer: Structure and Production Methods
> HCPV Epiwafer: Emerging Structures
> Main Players and Supply Chain
> HCPV Supply Chain: Main Business Models
> HCPV Supply Chain: Trends
> HCPV System Components: GaAs and Ge Wafers
> HCPV Wafer Starts: 2011-2020 forecast

Power GaN Electronic Applications - Market p.179

> Introduction
> GaN Devices: Value-proposition compared to Si and SiC
> GaN Devices in Power Electronics: Possible applications
> Power Range of the Targeted Applications
> What TAM for GaN?: Market size, split by voltage range
> GaN Added Value
> GaN Use: Expected improvements in power conversion
> GaN-based Power Electronics: Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market
> GaN vs. SiC vs. Si: Figure-of-merit
> GaN vs. SiC SWOT Analysis
> Why Would GaN Replace Silicon in Power Electronics?
> Power Electronics: 2011-2020 value-chain analysis: wafer, device, system
> GaN Devices in Power Application: 2010-2020 market size, split by device type
> GaN Devices in Power Application: 2010-2020 market size, split by application
> GaN Product Introduction Roadmap, based on announcements

Power GaN Electronic Applications - Epitaxy p.195

> Power GaN Epitaxial Structures
> Power GaN Epitaxy Players
> Power GaN Wafer Starts: 2012-2020 forecast

Epitaxy Reactors Forecast p. 200

> Wafer Start Per Application: 2009-2020 Forecast
> LED Reactors: Capacity Analysis: Geographic Breakdown
> LED Reactors: Geographic Trends and Impact on Global Demand
> LED Reactors: GaN Reactor Capacity vs. Demand:
> LED Reactors: GaN Reactor Capacity vs. Demand:
> LED Reactors: Conclusion On Capacity Trends
> LED Reactors: Key Forecast Hypothesis
> LED Reactors: 2009-2020 Volume Forecast GaN vs. InGaAlP
> LED Reactors: 2012-2020 Replacement Market
> LED Reactors: 2009-2020: Merchant vs. Captive
> RF GaAs Reactors: 2009-2020 Wafer Starts: MBE vs. MOCVD
> RF GaAs Reactors: 2009-2020 Forecast per Technology (MBE/MOCVD)
> RF GaAs Reactors: 2009-2020 Replacement Market
> Power GaN Reactors: Key Hypothesis
> Power GaN Reactors: 2009-2020 Forecast & Replacement Market
> GaAs HCPV Reactors: Key Hypothesis
> GaAs HCPV Reactors: 2009-2020 Forecast per Technology & Replacement Market
> Overall Merchant MOCVD Reactor 2012-2012-2020 Volume Forecast
> Overall MOCVD Reactor Forecast: 2012-2020 Revenue Forecast
> Overall MBE Reactor Forecast: 2012-2020 Volume Forecast
> Overall MBE Reactor Forecast: 2012-2020 Revenue Forecast
> Conclusion
> Annex: Quarterly Aixtron-Veeco MOCVD Booking Trends

MOCVD Precursors p.225

> Overview: Precursors and Safety
> Logistic: Distribution and Lead Time
> MO Precursor Delivery: Overview
> MO Precursor Delivery: Centralized Distribution
> MO Precursor Delivery: Example of central delivery units
> MO Precursor Purity
> TMG and TMI 2011 Volume Breakdown per Application
> MO Precursors Suppliers
> MO Production capacity expansion plants
> Top 5 MO Precursor Suppliers
> Second Tier and Emerging Suppliers
> ASP Trends: Tri Methyl Gallium TMG
> ASP Trends: Tri Methyl Indium TMI
> ASP Trends: Mid / Long Term
> TMG Market Demand vs Capacity: 2009-2020 Trends
> Tri Methyl Aluminum: Overview
> Dopants: DEZn, DMZn, Bis(CP)Mg
> Conclusions

Conclusions p.247

Company Profiles p.251
> Aixtron: Company Overview
> Aixtron: History
> Aixtron: Products and Applications
> Aixtron: 2003-2011 Revenue Trends per Segment
> Aixtron: 2002-2011 Revenue Trends Per End Market
> Aixtron: 2002-2011 MOCVD only Revenue
> Taiyo Nippon Sanso: Company Overview
> Taiyo Nippon Sanso: 2007-2011 MOCVD Revenue
> Riber: Company Overview
> Riber: Products and Applications
> Riber: 2002-2011 Revenue Trends per Segment
> Riber: 2002-2011 R&D vs. Production System Volume &Revenue
> Veeco: Company Overview
> Veeco: 2000-2011 Year Revenue trends
> Veeco: Products and Applications
> Veeco: Quarterly Revenue Breakdown by Application
> Veeco: Quarterly MOCVD and MBE Booking Trends
> Annex: Gross Margin Trends at Aixtron and Veeco

 

Companies Cited

Acco
Addon
Aixtron
AkzoNobel
Albermarle
Altatech
Amalfi
AMEC
Anadigic
Applied Materials
Arima
ATMI
ATTO Wonik IPS
Avago
AWSC
AXT
Azur Space
Azzurro
BAESystems
Bay Zu Precision (BZPC)
Black Sand
Bluglass
BluSolar
Boyu
Cambridge Chemicals
CamGan
Century Epitech
CESI
Chemtura
Chi Mei Lighting
China Crystal Technology
Compsolar
Createc
Cree
CVTechnology
CVD Equipment Corporation
Cyprium
Daystar Materials
DCAI nstruments
Dow Chemical
Dowa Electronics Materials
Eiko
Elmos
Emcore
EMF Semiconductor systems
EpiBlu
EpiGaN
Epilight
Epistar
Epiworks First Nano
Formosa Epitaxy
Freiberger
Fujiepi


Furukawa
GCS
Genesis Photonics
Guangdon Real Faith Semiconductor Equipments
Hitachi Cable
Hittite
Huga
II-V Lab
Infineon
IntelliEPI
International Rectifier
IQE
Javelin
JDSU Quantasol
Jusung engineering
Kopin
Koyo Thermo systems
Lake LED
Laytech
Lextar
LG Electronic ARI
LG Innotek
LG Siltron
LIG-ADP
LuminusDevice
M/A-Com
Mantis
MBE Components
Meaglow
Microlink Devices
Mimix Broadband
Mitsubishi chemical
Mitsubishi Electric
Nanomaster
Nata
Neosemitech
NGK Insulator
Nichia
Nitronex
NTT
Omicron
Ommic
Osaka University
Osram
Oxford Instrument
Panasonic
PB Technik AG
Philips Lumileds
Picogiga/Soitec
Plessey
Powdec
Power Integration

Qingdao Jason Electronic
Rfaxis
RFMD
Ribber
Rubicon
SAFC
Samsung LED
Sanan
Sandia
Sanken
SEDI
SEMES
Semprius
Seoul Optodevice/Semiconductor
Sharp
Sheng Optical Equipment
Shinetsu
Skyworks
Solapoint
Solar Junction
SPEC S
Spectrolab
Spire Semiconductor
Structured MaterialsIndustries
Sumika
Sumitomo SEI
SVT Associate
Sylarus Technologies
Sysnex
Taiyo Nippon Senso
Tanlong Photoeelctric
Tectra
Tekcore
Top engineering
Toshiba
Tosoh FineChem
Toyoda Gosei
Toyota
Transphorm
Triquint
UBE
ULVAC
Umicore
UMS
UP Chemical
Valence Process Equipment
Veeco
VG Semicon
VPEC
Win Semi
Xiamen Powerway
Yangzhou Longvao
Yongsheng Semiconductor Equipment

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

Established and emerging epitaxy technology for III-V semiconductors used in the following applications:

  • High Brightness LED (GaN and InGaAlP based)
  • RF GaAs devices
  • Power GaN devices
  • High concentrated Photovoltaic (HCPV)

> A comprehensive company profile of the main players in MOCVD and MBE business