Note from the publisher: the report will be available November 28, 2017.
Wire bond is still the dominant interconnect for memory packaging, but flip-chip is making inroads into mainstream memory packaging.
THE MEMORY SEMICONDUCTOR BUSINESS IS BOOMING
The memory industry is experiencing a strong growth phase. The total memory market is expected to increase at a ~9% CAGR 2016-2022, reaching ~$135B by 2022 – with DRAM and NAND constituting almost 95% market share. Moreover, a supply-demand mismatch is pushing memory device ASP, resulting in big memory IDMs reaping record profits.
Memory demand is coming from all sectors, particularly from the mobile and computing (mainly servers) markets. On average, DRAM memory capacity per smartphone will rise more than threefold, reaching around 6GB by 2022, while NAND capacity per smartphone will increase more than fivefold, reaching >150GB by 2022. For servers, DRAM capacity per unit will increase to a whopping >0.5TB by 2022 and NAND capacity per SSD for the enterprise market will reach >5TB by 2022. Growth in these markets is fueled by applications such as deep learning, data centers,networking, AR/VR, and autonomous driving.
The automotive market which generally use low density (low-MB) memory will see the adoption of DRAM memory led by emerging trend of autonomous driving and in-vehicle infotainment. Also, the NOR flash memory market is resurgent and expected to grow at an impressive 16% CAGR, attaining ~$4.4B by 2022 due to its application in new areas like AMOLED display, touch display driver ICs, and industrial IoTs.
On the supply side, player consolidation coupled with the difficulty in migrating to advanced nodes due to technical challenges, along with higher investment and migration from 2D to 3D NAND, has caused a shortfall in DRAM and NAND flash supply. DRAM players want to retain high ASP and profitability to justify their huge capex investment for advanced node migration, and as such are not inclined to increase capacity.
This Memory Packaging report details the market trends and roadmaps for different memory devices and furnishes market forecasts, supply chain analyses, player-by-player landscape reviews, and more. Also include is a detailed analysis of the Chinese memory landscape.
MEMORY DEVICES USE DIVERSE PACKAGING, FROM LEAD-FRAME-BASED TO TSV
There are many different memory device packaging options, implying a wide range of packaging technologies ranging from low pin-count SOP packages to high pin-count TSV options, all depending on product requirements like density, performance, and cost. Yole Développement has identified five core memory device packaging platforms: viz lead frame, wire-bond BGA, flipchip BGA, WLCSP, and TSV. Note though that each one includes many variations, along with different terminology. Ultimately, the total memory package market is expected to grow at a 4.6% CAGR2016-2022, reaching ~$25B by 2022.
In 2016, wire-bond BGA accounted for more than 80% of the packaging market in dollar terms. Also in 2016, flip-chip began making inroads in DRAM memory packaging, and is expected to grow at a ~20% CAGR over the next five years, accounting for >10% of the total memory packaging market. Increased adoption in the DRAM PC/server segment, fueled by high bandwidth requirements, drives flipchip growth. Samsung has already converted >90% of its DRAM packaging line, SK Hynix has also started converting, and other players will begin adopting flipchip in the future. In fact, we believe that all DDR5 memory for PC/servers will eventually use flip-chip.
Spurred on by high bandwidth and memory chips’ low latency demands for high-performance computing in various applications, TSV is being employed in highbandwidth memory devices. The 2016 TSV market was only <1% of the total memory market, but this will grow to a >30% CAGR, reaching ~8% of memory packaging in dollar terms by 2022. Also, WLSCP packaging is used in NOR flash and niche memory devices (EEPROMs/EPROM/ROM) and is expected to grow at a >10% CAGR, but in terms of value will remain only <1% of the market by 2022.
For mobile applications, memory packaging will mostly remain on the wire-bond BGA platform. However, it will soon begin moving towards the multi-chip package (ePoP) for high-end smartphones. NAND flash devices’ main requirement is high storage density at low cost. NAND are stacked using wire bonding in order to provide high density in a single package.
NAND flash packaging will remain in wire bond BGA form and will not migrate to flip-chip. However, Toshiba will start using TSV packaging in NAND devices to increase data transfer rate for highend applications. After Toshiba, we believe Samsung and SKHynix will bring TSV packaged NAND devices to market.
This report details the trends and roadmaps for different memory devices’ packaging, and includes market forecasts, supply chain analyses, players’ landscape, and more.
WHILE MEMORY PACKAGING’S VALUE IS HUGE (IN $B), IT’S CONTROLLED BY IDMS
The total 2016 memory packaging market is estimated at ~ $20B. Many OSATs are involved in the memory packaging business, and >80% of packaging (by value) is still done internally by memory IDMs. Majority of these are small OSATs and have low end packaging capability. Global-memory IDMs have considerable experience in packaging, accumulated over years of projects, and have their own sizeable internal capacity.
OSATs have limited opportunity to impact IDM packaging activity. However, many Chinese players are entering the memory business with a more than $50B investment committed. Unlike global IDMs, these new players lack experience in memory assembly/packaging and they will outsource most of their packaging activity to OSATs.
This report details the different OSATs involved in memory packaging, and addresses roadmaps, market share, and strategies.
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
- Understand the overall market trends of different memory types and the key applications driving them
- Know the different types of memory packaging technology, along with market and technology trends
- Grasp memory packaging’s evolution and roadmap
- See a market forecast of the different memory packaging technologies for the coming years, along with an estimate of future trends
- Gain insight into the latest memory packaging landscape’s developments
- Analyze memory packaging’s supply chain and landscape