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NAND Service – Memory Research
Jun.2018

yole_nand_market_dynamics_per_quarter
$35 000

If you want more information about this monitor, please contact us!

Description

This monitor is not part of our Bundled Offer and Full Yole Développement yearly subscription.

Yole NAND service flyer coverNAND is expected to set another revenue record in 2018, before a flattish 2019.

MEMORY IS NOW THE PRIMARY MARKET SEGMENT FOR SEMICONDUCTOR PRODUCTS

The hyper-growth of the memory market in 2017 positioned both DRAM and NAND memory as leading devices within the semiconductor market. With the memory markets significantly impacting the semiconductor industry in terms of profits, CAPEX, and sales, Yole Développement has decided to publish two new reports covering the fast-moving DRAM and NAND markets. Beginning this year, Yole Développement will publish world-class research, data, and insights covering the memory markets in quarterly installments that analyze the evolution of the DRAM and NAND markets in terms of revenue, shipments, CAPEX, and near-term price evolution, as well as demand per market segment, DRAM and NAND technology evolution, and detailed profiles of main suppliers. Yole Développement will also introduce DRAM and NAND monthly pricing monitors to track the price evolution of key components and packaged solutions.

 

EVERY APPLICATION IS PUSHING NAND DEMAND TO NEW HEIGHTS

The NAND market continues to expand, with several consecutive quarters of record revenue and profitability for suppliers. Every megatrend is driving NAND demand to new heights.
Capital expenditures for the industry are increasing, in order to support the costly transition from planar (2D) to 3D NAND architectures. There are several announced or anticipated wafer capacity additions which are needed to offset wafer throughput reductions as suppliers’ ramp-up their process-intensive 3D NAND.
NAND’s competitive landscape remains incredibly dynamic. Samsung is prepping its first fab at its massive Pyeongtaek site; Intel is emerging as a stand-alone supplier with capacity in China; and the sale of Toshiba’s memory business to a consortium led by Bain Capital is finally happening. Meanwhile, a new entrant looms on the horizon: China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), which threatens to disrupt the status-quo as well as multiple other Chinese projects.
NAND demand remains robust, with strong growth for enterprise Solid-State Drives (SSDs) in data centers, increasing adoption of SSDs in laptop PCs, and continued content growth in smartphones and other mobile devices. These segments will continue driving the bulk of NAND bit consumption, though several emerging trends are poised to augment future growth, including AI and VR adoption, automotive, and IoT.
As the NAND market continues evolving, the industry faces many important questions, including:

  • Will the NAND market continue expanding with healthy profitability for producers, or will oversupply push the market into a downturn? How does the price-elasticity of demand factor into the outlook?
  • What are the limits of 3D NAND stacking? How will NAND suppliers continue to scale as 3D stacking’s limits approach?
  • When will Quad-Level Cell (QLC)-based products reach the market, and from whom?
  • Will YMTC’s emergence disrupt the current market balance?
  • Will incumbent suppliers cede share to YMTC, or will a market-share battle erupt?
  • Is Intel working with YMTC to supply 3D NAND and/or provide technology? If so, what are both companies’ motivations?
  • Will NAND capital expenditures continue their recent upward trend, or will capital intensity climb too high and threaten supplier stability?
  • Will the NAND market eventually consolidate, similar to DRAM? How might this play out?
  • How did price increases in 2017 impact market demand?
  • How do new megatrends like AI, machine learning, and virtual reality impact the NAND outlook? To what extent does NAND enable these?
  • How will SSD form-factors and interfaces evolve over time?
  • At what rate will SSDs replace HDDs in PCs?

Yole Développement answers these questions and provides opinions on a quarterly basis with its new NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor.

 Yole NAND market dynamics per quarter

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN THE UPCOMING QUARTERS?

NAND is expected to set another revenue record in 2018, followed by a potentially flat 2019 due to slight oversupply caused by bit growth approaching 50%. Revenue is expected to expand over time as cost reductions enable further penetration of NAND-based storage solutions into traditional HDD markets.
On the technology side, despite QLC’s emergence, technology-driven bit growth will slow in the long-term as technology and manufacturing complexities continue rising.
Long-term ASP declines are expected to slightly outpace industry cost declines due to China’s new entrant, YMTC, which could begin production as early as 2019. Profit margins are expected to shrink, but the industry will remain profitable.
The differences in planar vs. 3D NAND process flows will shift CAPEX focus from lithography to deposition and etching: substantial fab retooling is required to convert existing planar fabs to 3D. With increasing processing time for 3D NAND, major investments are required in new capacity to maintain flat wafer output during transitions, benefiting equipment vendors.

 

Yole NAND market forecast

NAND QUARTERLY MARKET MONITOR AND MONTHLY PRICING MONITOR - CONTENT

The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor provide all data related to NAND revenue per quarter, NAND shipments, pricing per NAND type, near and long-term revenue, market share per quarter, CAPEX per company, and a market demand/supply forecast, along with a complete analysis and details on the demand side, with a deep dive into client and enterprise SSD, data centers, mobile, automotive, PC, and more.
For the top seven players (Samsung, Toshiba, Western Digital, Micron, SK Hynix, Intel, and YMTC), the NAND Quarterly Market Monitor offers a detailed analysis of CAPEX, shipment, wafer production per technology (process mix) and per fab, as well as the expected impact of NAND technology changes.
The NAND Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

  • Excel database with all historical and forecast data
  • PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
  • Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, including opportunities for an on-demand Q&A as well as discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news

 

WHAT ABOUT THE DRAM SERVICE - MEMORY RESEARCH?

A full package:
The DRAM Quarterly Market Monitor and the Monthly Pricing Monitor include the following deliverables:

  • Excel database with all historical and forecast data
  • PDF slide deck with graphs and comments/analysis covering expected evolutions
  • Direct access to a Yole Développement analyst for one year, providing an opportunity for on-demand Q&A and discussions regarding trends, analyses, forecasts, and breaking news


Frequency:

Receive every quarter the updated Market Monitor documents and every month the updated Pricing Monitor documents


Options:

  • Pricing Monitors can be bought individually (NAND, DRAM or both)
  • Memory Research are available for DRAM, NAND and both

Check the different options on the order form page.

 

 

Table of contents

NAND Quaterly Market Monitor (PPT file)

 

 

NAND market overview


> Revenue
> Quarterly revenue - near and long-term
> Shipments
> Pricing
> Market share
> CAPEX
> Sufficiency
> Near-term pricing outlook

 

 

NAND demand


> Segment bit demand and share
> Mobile
> SSD - PC (client) & data center (enterprise)
> Automotive
> 3D XPoint

 

 

NAND supply


> Wafer production by supplier, process, and technology
> Bit production by process, technology, and density
> GB per wafer, by supplier
> SLC bit production and bit market share

 

 

NAND supplier profile


> Samsung
> Toshiba
> Western Digital
> Micron
> SK Hynix
> Intel
> YMTC
> Others

 

A complete Excel file with the analysis’ numerical data is included with the PPT presentation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

NAND Monthly Pricing Monitor (Excel file)

Monthly price evolution from 2017 - 2019 for:

 

TLC NAND ($/unit)


> 128Gb (16GB)
> 256Gb (32GB)
> 512Gb (64GB)

 

 

MLC NAND ($/unit)


> 16Gb (2GB)
> 32Gb (4GB)
> 64Gb (8GB)
> 128Gb (16GB)
> 256Gb (32GB)

 

 

SLC NAND ($/unit)


> 1Gb
> 2Gb
> 4Gb
> 8Gb (1GB)

 

 

eMMC ($/unit)


> 16GB TLC
> 32GB TLC
> 64GB TLC
> 128GB TLC

 

 

UFS ($/unit)


> 32GB TLC
> 64GB TLC
> 128GB TLC
> 256GB TLC

 

 

eMCP ($/unit)


> 16GB+8Gb LP3
> 16GB+16Gb LP3
> 32GB+16Gb LP3
> 32GB+24Gb LP4
> 64GB+32Gb LP4
> 64GB+48Gb LP4
> 128GB+32Gb LP

Companies cited

Samsung
Toshiba
Western Digital
Micron
SK Hynix
Intel
YMTC
and more...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Market forecast through 2023 in GB, $US, units, wafers, and $/GB
  • Supplier market share (Samsung, Toshiba, Western Digital, Micron, SK Hynix, Intel, YMTC, etc.) from 2015 - present, by revenue ($US), bit shipments (GB), and geography ($US)
  • Supplier financial data: capital expenditures ($US), capital intensity (%), average selling price ($/GB), operating cost per bit ($/GB), and operating margin (%)
  • Detailed ASP forecast through 2019, by density for NAND components (SLC, MLC, TLC, QLC) and packaged solutions (eMMC, UFS, eMCP)
  • Demand forecast through 2023, by category (i.e. client SSD, enterprise and other SSD, mobile, removable storage, automotive, and consumer) in units, revenue ($US), bit demand (GB), and average density (GB/unit)
  • Production forecast through 2019, by supplier for wafer production (wpm, by fab), bit production (GB, by fab), process mix (% of wafers), technology mix (bit basis), and average GB per wafer
  • Emerging memory forecast for 3D XPoint, in revenue ($US), content (GB/system), average selling price ($/GB), server, and PC attach rates