A $16B market by 2023, a change of business model, and significant technical changes: how will electric and hybrid vehicles change the power electronics industry?EV/HEV MARKET: A BURGEONING MARKET FULL OF PROMISES AND UNCERTAINTIES
Electric and hybrid vehicles have been presented as a huge market over the last few years, but in 2013 only 100K 100% electric vehicles were sold, and only 2M EV/HEV cars in total. For 2014, technological and architectural upgrades have been made and are ready to deploy, but the most important need is still to convince the end-user to change their habits and transition to an EV/HEV.
Charging infrastructure development, battery cost reduction and power density increase are pushing the EV/HEV market forward. Moreover, as the market grows and the technology develops, the price difference between EV/HEV vehicles and gas-powered vehicles will progressively shrink, thus further accelerating EV/HEV market advancement. Also, governmental restrictions on CO2 output are becoming increasingly aggressive worldwide (58mpg for the United States in 2025, and in 2020 for Europe). For all of these reasons, we expect end-users to be swayed by electric energy’s low cost and governmental incentives, making the EV/HEV market very attractive. In this report you will find a detailed analysis of markets by type, as well as an analysis of the positive and negative trends impacting the EV/HEV market.
EV/HEV MARKET: CHINA WILL BOOM AND DRIVE THE REST OF THE WORLD
The EV/HEV market is growing worldwide, especially in established areas of automotive development like the United States, Europe and Japan. But according to Yole, China is the most important target market for EV/HEV. With a cars-per-inhabitant ratio 4x lower than in the United States and 5x lower than in Germany, an increasingly wealthy China is naturally the most attractive market for automotive. Moreover, with pollution in Chinese cities worsening, the Chinese government continues to be very aggressive in terms of CO2 reduction. Thus, the path for EV/HEV is clear. Chinese car makers are investing significant sums in electrification, and manyjoint-ventures with foreign car makers have been signed in order to promote electro-mobility. National and local governments are also very involved in promoting EV/HEV; incentives are given to buyers and electric cars are bought for government officials’ use. But the most impressive action from the Chinese government is the $10B budget earmarked for the development of a charging infrastructure. Many bids have already been published and allocated, and discussions are ongoing regarding a new charging standard. Knowing this favorable environment, some of the most famous car makers do not hesitate to cite the Chinese market as “the most important for EV/HEV between now and 2018”. With all of this in mind, we estimate that worldwide, 85M EV/HEV cars will be sold by 2023, with 65M of them being start/stop and micro hybrid vehicles, and almost 2M 100% electric. In this report, we provide an analysis of Chinese business models and details on Chinese players.
POWER MODULE INTEGRATION AND PACKAGING IS A KEY POINT FOR EV/HEV
With automotive industry know-how built around the combustion engine, the transition to electric engines must proceed with a transition of this specific know-how. This can either be via hardware or software, but car makers want to avoid having the same motor as their competitors just because they have the same power electronics supplier. Inverters, and more importantly power modules, are fast becoming one of a car’s key ingredients, and car makers want to control it. In this context, the supply chain is evolving and power module manufacturing is becoming a difficult concurrence zone. Pre-established business models must be reshaped. Tier 1 companies in particular must integrate power modules to stay competitive, taking into account that more and more car makers are moving to vertical integration as well. In order to identify manufacturing trends, packaging trends and future business models that will capture most of the value chain, Yole Développement has analyzed and summarized the entire supply chain for all EV/HEV.
SUBSTRATES, POWER MODULE PACKAGING AND WIDE BAND-GAP SEMICONDUCTORS ARE MODIFYING POWER MODULES
With different types of hybridization available for cars, there are different architectures in development, from the semiconductor to the car itself. We analyze each EV/HEV type in order to highlight key points and compare them. For example, start/stop vehicles need discrete components, not power modules, whereas power module packaging is very important for an electric vehicle’s battery. Many developments are ongoing in this field, from substrate to die attach. Wide band-gap semiconductors are also in development for automotive applications, where every centimeter of room is maximized. In fact, EV/HEV could be the first field in which wide band-gap semiconductors are essential.
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
The objectives of the report are:
- EV/HEV market analyses and forecasts
- Special focus on the Chinese market
- Supply chain analysis and trends
- Description of state-of-the-art semiconductor devices and innovations
- Analysis and forecasts regarding power electronics for the EV/HEV market
- Analysis of EV/HEV market advancement: what accelerates the market and what slows it down, with solutions to the latter category.
- Special focus on the Chinese market
- Complete supply chain description and analysis
- Updated market forecasts for EV/HEV and associated power electronics