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Power GaN Market
Jun.2014

yole powergan estimated accessible markets june 2014
5 990 €

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Description

Yole PGanmarket 2014The GaN power industry is consolidating in preparation for significant growth

80% ANNUAL GROWTH FROM 2016-2020!

Overall, 2020 could see an estimated device market size of almost $600M, leading to approximately 580,000 x 6” wafers to be processed. Ramp-up will be quite impressive starting in 2016, at an estimated 80% CAGR through 2020, based upon a scenario where EV/HEV begins adopting GaN in 2018-2019.

The power supply/PFC segment will dominate the business from 2015-2018, ultimately representing 50% of device sales. At that point, automotive will then catch-up.

In UPS applications, the medium-power segment is likely to be very much in line with the GaN value proposition, and savings at system level will be demonstrated. We think GaN technology could grab up to 15% of market share in this field by 2020.

Room for extra cost in motor drive applications is unlikely. Therefore, the incentives to implement new technologies such as GaN have to be serious and strong. Considering the possible improvement of conversion efficiency, and augmented by a predictable price parity with Si solutions by 2018, we expect GaN to start being implemented at a slow rate in motor control by 2015-2016, and reach around $45M in revenue by 2020.

The PV inverters segment has already adopted SiC technology, and products are now commercially available. It’s possible that GaN could partially displace SiC thanks to better price positioning. However, now that SiC is in place, qualifying GaN may be more challenging.

This report illustrates the full coverage of GaN device market data, split by application and through 2020.

Yole PowerGaN Estimated-Accessible-markets June 2014

DESPITE LIMITED SALES REVENUE, THE GaN POWER INDUSTRY IS TAKING SHAPE


Recent announcements show that the GaN industry is taking shape as mergers, acquisitions and license agreements are settled. The latest Transphorm-Fujitsu agreement, in addition to Furukawa’s IP portfolio’s exclusive licensing, are positive signs that GaN technology is spreading across the value chain, reinforcing the leaders’ market position but likely leaving the weakest players by the wayside.

Reasonably speaking, Yole Développement forecasts that 2014 will only generate $10M - $12M in device sales (in addition to R&D contracts and so forth). Such a moderate business means only the strongest will survive, and that several early-birds will see their cash-flow swiftly dissipate.

Yole Développement thinks that the GaN business will really ramp up in 2016, exceeding the “psychological threshold” of $50M in revenue. The key question is, how can GaN survive the next 1 ½ - 2 years? At the risk of being overly-pessimistic, we are afraid some companies will not survive, and will either be acquired or go bankrupt.
This report highlights the current power GaN industry playground and its key established players.

GaN WILL BE POWER SUPPLY-CENTRIC BEFORE ADDRESSING AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS

Yole PGaN 2015 projection June 2014


Today, the power GaN business is mainly centered on low-voltage DC-DC converters (typically Point-of-Loads, or POL) using available 200V-rated devices. Unfortunately, this business only generates a few million dollars in revenue. However, thanks to the 600V device’s introduction this year, GaN will grow quite fast in power-supply and PFC applications where technical added-value and economics are obvious.

After simulating several case-studies, we have concluded that even though today’s market price for GaN devices exceeds the price for silicon devices, efficiency improvements and electricity bill savings can overcome this extra cost in less than one year for a 300W, 24/7 operation power supply (data server type). By 2018, the same power supply could be even cheaper than its silicon counterpart thanks to the reduction in passives (capacitor, self-induction) cost, along with switching frequency increase.

Therefore, we see the PFC segment taking off by 2015, and achieving an 80% CAGR over 2016-2020.
Other applications such as PV inverter, and, to a lesser extent, motor control, will see GaN begin capturing market share by 2015-2016.

The next big thing will unquestionably be the EV and HEV segments, where GaN could definitely play a role in power systems such as low-voltage (14V -> 200 - 400V) DC-DC converters, and later for battery chargers (on-board 3.6 & 7.2 kW first, and then off-board 50kW+). However, we don’t see any chance for GaN to enter power-train inverters (60kW+) before 2019-2020, due to the current lack of high-current devices and the projected price.

With detailed device specification requirements, this report accurately describes the main applications addressed by GaN.

DELAYS PERTAINING TO 600V AND E-MODE INTRODUCTION HAVE AFFECTED THE TECHNOLOGY’S CREDIBILITY

Yole PowerGaN 2010 2020 GaN-device June 2014


600V-rated GaN devices were announced and promoted more than two years ago. However, only a few select customers have had access to 600V for qualification purposes. The majority of the power electronics community has been unable to source such devices. This has probably affected GaN technology’s credibility, and opened the door for its main competing technology, SiC, to continue expanding its industry presence.

Similarly, Noff (e-mode) availability has also been over-promoted, meaning real devices with stable, reliable specs took time to be diffused from off-the-shelf.

All of this said, it now seems that the main players have caught up with their original roadmap, and devices are now available on the marketplace.

This report summarizes the most up-to-date GaN device developments worldwide.



Table of contents

Executive summary p9
> GaN will be power-supply-centric then will address automotive applications
> GaN power industry is consolidating. Some will grow, some will die…
> Delay on 600V and e-mode introduction affects technology credibility
> How do we envision the GaN Power Electronics Story Unfolding?
> Power GaN: a Question of Business Model…
> 2010-2020 market size, split by application
> 2010-2020 market size, split by voltage in %
> 2010-2020 market size, split by voltage in value
> 2010-2020 market size, split by device type
> Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market
> % of GaN revenues by company headquarter location. 2010-2020
> GaN revenues by company regional headquarter location in M$. 2010-2020
> GaN could reach 4% of the overall power device market by 2020…
> GaN-on-What? At the end of the day it will be Silicon…. As usual
> 6” GaN-on-Si Epiwafer Market Price evolution roadmap to 2020
> 6” (equiv.) wafer market volume demand 2010-2020 market volume, split by application, in units

Overall power electronics market p27

> 2013 – 2020 value chain analysis: wafer, device, system
> 2006-2020 overall PE market size, split by family
> 2006-2020 overall PE market size, split by device type
> Regional analysis 2013
> Wafer diameter evolution in power electronics applications to 2020
> Global feedback about 2013 power electronics market
> Our prediction for 2013-2020 power electronics envisioned evolution
> Application Market Segment Definition and Content
> 2013 power electronics market by application and main expectations to 2020
> Power electronics market by applications in % and M$. 2012 - 2020
> 2013 power device market, by voltage, by application, in % and M$
> Device revenues distributed by voltage range. 2013
> 2013 power device market size, by voltage, by application
> 2013 power device market size, by application, by voltage
> 2013 power device market, by voltage, by device, in % and M$
What TAM for GaN?

GaN power electronics market segmentation p48

> Why would GaN replace silicon in power electronics?
> GaN faster than IGBT, more powerful than MOSFET
> Life-cycle of power device technologies a new generation every ~20 years…
> GaN devices in power electronics possible applications
> Power range of the targeted applications
> GaN vs. SiC vs. Si Figure-of-merit
> Reasons for GaN added value
> Expected improvements in power conversion
> GaN vs. SiC SWOT analysis
> GaN transistor type acceptance matrix
> 2013 GaN device state-of-the-art (V & Amp) vs. application requests
> 2015 projection GaN device state-of-the-art (V & Amp) vs. application requests
> 2020 projection GaN device state-of-the-art (V & Amp) vs. application requests

GaN industry involvement p62

> Recent M&A, investments and fund raisings in the GaN Area
> Established power semiconductor company involvement In GaN and future plans
> Main power GaN players and related business model
> Origin of GaN involvement
> Industrial supply-chain in North America
> Industrial supply-chain in Europe
> Industrial supply-chain in Asia
> From prototype to mass-production
> Status of GaN-on-Si device makers as of mid-2013

GaN power device developments p72

> Main technical steps over the value-chain
> Lateral vs. vertical design pros & cons
> Comparison of best GaN HEMT R&D Results
> Vb, I and A/mm² with existing SJ MOSFET and SiC MOSFET
> Expected evolution of GaN commercial device current density (A/mm²) to 2020 for several voltage ranges
> GaN-based power devices overview of on-going initiatives

Manufacturing cost analysis comparison of marketed products: silicon SJ MOSFET, silicon IGBT, SiC MOSFET and GaN HEMT p81

> Comparison of selected device process steps and manufacturing cost.
> Reverse Engineering of Efficient Power Conversion Corp. EPC 10xx series
> EPC 10xx Series cross sections
> Transistor power and current density
> GaN transistor die-size as a function of Vb and Id
> Process cost analysis:
> Infineon SJ MOSFET
> STMicro SJ MOSFET
> Mitsubishi IGBT
> CREE SiC MOSFET

GaN device market price list and comparison with SiC and Si p92

> Manufacturing price of a 600V/10A transistor
> Comparison Si, GaN-on-Si, GaN-on-GaN & SiC
> Average selling price of GaN devices
(based upon current state-of-the-art and disclosed roadmap for product introduction)
> Average selling price of silicon devices
> Average selling price of SiC devices
(based upon current state-of-the-art and disclosed roadmap for product introduction)
> Comparison of $/amp market price for selected 600V devices to 2020
> Power supply, PFC, DC-DC & POL converter market
> Definition

Focus on power supply, DC-DC converter, PoL p98

> Main GaN added value in PFC circuits
> PFC market main metrics
> PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
> Influence of switching frequency on the size and weight of the PFC module
> Si vs. SiC or GaN
> Main market requirements for PFC applications
> DC-DC converter market by power and by application
> POL IC (non-isolated DC-DC converter) market and main players
> Bill of Material Comparison Si vs. GaN
> Payback time estimation
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in PFC application to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in PFC application to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in PFC application to 2020 (Units & M$)
> Market volume for GaN transistors in DC-DC converter to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors in DC-DC converter to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in DC-DC converter to 2020 (Units & M$)
> Conclusions

Focus on EV/HEV market p121

> Vehicle architectures
> Different types of electrified vehicles
> Device types and power levels
> EV/HEV annual demand forecast to 2020 in M units
> Expected improvements of GaN introduction in HEV
> For the 3 main applications
> The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV
> Toyota vision of WBG technology use in HEV
> GaN vs. SiC & vertical vs. lateral
> Industry supply-chain organization and expected changes
> Supply chain description
> Bill of Material Comparison Si vs. GaN
> Hypothesis “Toyota type” with boost converter
> Overall Results “Toyota type” with boost converter
> Results for 60kW “Toyota type” with boost converter
> Hypothesis “standard type” without boost converter
> Overall Results “standard type” without boost converter
> Results for 60kW “standard type” without boost converter
> BoM Conclusions
> Annual demand for Full-HEV, pHEV and BEV inverters in Munits
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in EV/HEV inverter to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in EV/HEV inverter to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in EV/HEV inverter to 2020 (Units & M$)





Focus on battery charger p153
> Topologies of EV Chargers
> Main battery charger manufacturers
> Battery charger annual demand for EV & pHEV in Munits
> Bill of Material Comparison Si vs. GaN
> Fast Battery Charger. Hypothesis
> Results for 1.5kW battery charger
> Results for 6.5kW battery charger
> Results for 50kW battery fast-charger
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in EV/pHEV charger to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in EV/pHEV charger to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in EV/pHEV charger to 2020 (Units & M$)


Focus on LV-HV DC-DC converter p166

> LV/HV DC-DC converter annual demand for EV & pHEV in Munits
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in LV/HV DC-DC to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in LV/HV DC-DC to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in LV/HV DC-DC converter to 2020 (Units & M$)
> Conclusion for the automotive segment

Focus on inverters for solar panels p173

> Solar market segment
> Typical market price in €/W of PV inverters by power range. Comparison with motor drive
> Market forecast
> Main device technology in use or in development
> Power devices for PV Inverters
> Supply chain for power devices
> Use of GaN in PV inverter: SWOT analysis
> BoM. and payback time of PV inverter transformer-less topology
> Bill of Material comparison Si vs. GaN hypothesis 
> Transformer-less topology
> Results for 5kW 1-phase 
> Results for 20kW 3-phase 
> Results for 50kW 3-phase 
> Payback time estimation
> How SiC moves the fundamental economics of a PV inverter
> Payback time estimation
> Main hypothesis
> Detailed calculations for 2012
> Detailed calculations for 2014, 2016, 2018 & 2020
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in PV inverter to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in PV inverter to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in PV inverter to 2020 (Units & M$)

Focus on PV micro-inverters p194

> Market trends & Market Forecast
> PV micro-inverters commercial products with SiC
> Bill of Material comparison Si vs. GaN hypothesis for enphase-type
> Bill of Material comparison Si vs. GaN
> Payback time estimation
> Overall results
> Market volume for GaN diodes in PV micro-inverter to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN diodes in PV micro-inverter to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in PV micro-inverter to 2020 (Units & M$)
> Conclusion for PV applications


Focus on UPS market p206

> UPS architecture
> UPS product segments
> Topology trend and evolution
NPC: Neutral Point Clamped
> Topology of power modules
> Projection of world UPS Market to 2020 split by power range in market size (M$)
> Projection of world UPS Market to 2020 split by power range in units
> UPS vendor market share
> Bill of Material comparison Si vs. GaN
> Hypothesis
> Results for 500VA off-line 
> Results for 5kVA line-interactive 
> Results for 50kVA on-line 3-phase 
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in UPS application to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in UPS application to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in UPS application to 2020 (Units & M$)
> Conclusions

Focus on motor AC drive p223

> Motor drive history
> Motor drive figures
> Motor drives definition – DC link
> Application description
> Motor drives applications by power and voltage range
> Application segmentation
> Technical segmentation
> Application description
> Motor drives applications by power and voltage range
> Market analysis split by voltage
> Market analysis split by power in low voltages motor drives
> Market data and analysis
> AC drive market volume as a function of power range - 2010-2020 projection 
> Market and data analysis
> Market size of motor AC drives by application and type. 2013 preliminary analysis
> Players and supply-chain
> Leader’s business model in motor drives
> Bill of Material Comparison Si vs. GaN
> Hypothesis
> Overall results for 1kW drive
> Overall results for 20kW drive
> Overall results for 200kW drive
> Market volume for GaN transistors and diodes in motor drive to 2020 (Munits)
> Market size for GaN transistors and diodes in motor drive to 2020 (M$)
> Market size and volume for GaN-on-Si epiwafers in motor drive application to 2020 (Units & M$)
> Conclusions

Appendix p245-286

> Main R&D programs related to GaN
>Technology profiles of noticeable GaN device developments

 

Companies cited

Aixtron
AirWater
Avogy
Azzurro
BeMiTec
CamGaN Ltd
CorEnergy
Dynax Semiconductor Inc
Dow Corning
Dowa Electronics Materials
Enphase
EPC Corp.
EpiGaN
Episil
ExaGaN
Fairchild
FBH
Freescale
Fuji Electric

Fujitsu
Furukawa
GaN Systems
Hitachi
IMEC
Infineon
International Rectifier
Intersil
IQE
LG Electronics
LG Siltron
MicroGaN
Microsemi
Mitsubishi Electric
NTT
NXP
OnSemi
Oxford Instruments
Panasonic
Powdec
Power Integrations
Renesas
RFMD
Rohm
Samsung
Sanken Electric
Shindengen
Siltronic
Soitec
STMicroelectronics
Sumitomo SEI
Texas Instruments
Toshiba
Transluscent
Transphorm
Veeco
Velox
Vishay
VisIC

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Focus on the entire value-chain, from substrate to device
  • Coverage of all applications where GaN can play a role in consumer, telecom, automotive and industry segments: DC-DC converter (i.e. POL), PFC, EV/HEV Inverter, EV/pHEV charger, EV/HEV DC-DC LV/HV, PV inverter, PV micro-inverter, Motor control, UPS, Audio, R&D and others
  • Insights into manufacturing cost breakdown, comparing SJ MOSFET, SiC MOSFET, IGBT and GaN HEMT
  • Analysis of recent moves in the GaN industry and a description of the business’s potential evolution
  • Comparison with previous reports: what we saw and what we missed