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SiC Modules, Devices and Substrates for Power Electronics Market
Oct.2014

yole sic2014 sic-based ev hev october 2014
5 990 €

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Description

Yole SiC 2014 Icone-flyerSiC propagates over all industrial segments. Contagion has begun…


PFC, PV INVERTER AND NOW RAIL APPLICATIONS ARE FUELING SiC SALES
In 2013, SiC chip business has almost reached $100m due to already well-established PFC applications that still drive large volumes of diodes and PV systems that, despite a depressed market, are the beachhead for newly SiC-powered inverter or micro-inverter line-ups. Surprisingly, train traction has adopted SiC sooner than expected because of the availability of 1.7kV full and hybrid modules that have been demonstrated and installed by Mitsubishi Electric in Japan.

Train could dynamically expand, exhibiting a >80% CAGR over 2015-2020, since we expect other rolling-stock manufacturers will quickly adopt SiC, first in metro and then in the high-speed trains. We also forecast PV inverters to keep on implementing SiC at an annual growth rate of almost 12%.

Adoption of SiC in train applications is significant in showing how SiC could play an important role in the high and very high voltage ranges (>1.7kV). We stay convinced that these voltage (and related power) ranges are exactly the place where SiC can bring added-value despite a price positioning that differs from silicon. Here savings are made at the system level, where passives and other cooling can be dramatically reduced when moving to SiC.

On the other hand, PFC will probably face more and more competition from GaN now that it is claimed to be able to compete in the 600V segment. Therefore we remain quite conservative regarding this application which may switch to Nitrides in the coming years.

This report will display the full coverage of SiC device market data, split by application to 2020.


SiC IN EV/HEV IS DELAYED BEYOND 2018
It has always been said that SiC could play a major role in EV/HEV power electronics. Most car makers agree there is a 10% fuel savings when moving from silicon to SiC in hybrid vehicles. For a pure electric car this metric (for a given battery pack) will translate into lower battery consumption or extended range. It is now obvious that EV/HEV could easily capture the biggest portion of the SiC business.

However, even though all technical indicators are green, the car industry is reluctant to implement SiC, claiming that the economics are not yet fully compatible with their expectations. Such conservatism heavily impacts our previous predictions. According to key industrial voices (Toyota, Denso, Honda, Nissan…), SiC will only be on the short list by 2018 for the most optimistic players and by 2020 for others. By adding GaN 600V Noff devices now in the starting blocks, we approach the most conservative scenario we developed in the past years exhibiting a SiC device business in 2020 that will exceed $400m.

The report highlights the SiC vs. Si bill-of-material comparisons for the most significant applications and concludes with the chances of SiC to penetrate each individual segment.

Yole SiC2014 SiC-based EV HEV October 2014

6” SiC WAFERS FOR POWER ELECTRONIC APPLICATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN 2016-2017.
For the n-type substrates, 4” wafers are the mainstream product on the market. The introduction of 6” n-type substrates in power electronic devices is slower than expected. The quality of the 6” wafer seems to still be an issue and the price is highly dependent on the quality, varying from $1300 to $2000. Additionally, supply of 6” wafers is still limited.

The ratio between the price of 6” and 4” n-type substrates is about 2.5X, which is still too high and does not make 6” wafers appealing for the device makers, despite their intention to transition to 6” to reduce device cost.

The price of 6” n-type wafers is expected to drop quickly in the next two years and fall below the $1000 threshold. The large scale transition to 6” is expected to take place in 2016-2017.

Concerning the players, Cree remains the market leader by far. II-VI, Dow Corning and SiCrystal follow. Asian players are gaining market share little by little, but their volumes are still small compared to the leading players.

The report will give a description of the SiC substrate and epitaxy market as well as the alternative technology to SiC substrate.

Yole SiC2014 SiCdevices October 2014

CHINESE PLAYERS ARE COMING INTO THE SiC PLAYGROUND
China is already a big player in the power electronics field with most of the integrators. At the device level, China has invested significant amounts in R&D and production of IGBTs in the recent years. Compared to US, Europe and Japan, China still has some way to go.

China is hoping to catch up with US, Europe and Japan in the power electronics field, with so called “third generation of semiconductors” (SiC & GaN…). Consequently, Chinese government has made significant funding in the SiC R&D and industrialization. Since 2006, several companies gradually enter the SiC playground. Now, there are Chinese companies covering the entire value chain, from materials to devices.

In Asia, Japan leads the SiC activities, China is catching up, and Korea is coming.

The report gives an overview of the SiC R&D and industry in China by describing the current status of key Chinese players.

Yole SiC2014 China wide band-gap October 2014
REPORT OBJECTIVE
This report provides a complete analysis of the SiC device, module and substrate. industry in the power electronics field along with key market metrics.
It provides company involvement as well as state-of-the-art technology.
Benchmark of SiC technology vs. main contenders: Si and GaN.
In addition, an extensive review of the manufacturing cost and key economics of SiC technology is provided, offering the most complete view of the SiC industry available to date.

Table of contents

Table of contents
Executive summary
> The 10 key success factors for SiC cost of ownership decrease
> Our vision of SiC market for the next 10 years Conditions for success…
> What’s new in this 2014 release?
> Comparison with 2013 report: What we saw, what we missed, what has moved…
> SiC device sales in 2013
> Projection of SiC power device market size split by application
> Estimation of SiC-based power module market, split by application to 2020.
> % of SiC revenues by company headquarter location. 2002-2020
> SiC revenues by company headquarter location in M$. 2008-2020
> Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2010-2020

Recent known funding for SiC development
Power electronics market metrics
> 2013-2020 overall PE market size, split by device type
> Power electronics market metrics
> 2013 power electronics market by application and main expectations to 2015
> What TAM for SiC? Market size, split by voltage range
> Regional analysis of power device sales
> 2013 wafer market for power electronics (CZ, FZ, SOI & SiC)
> Wafer diameter evolution in power electronics applications to 2020
> SiC Applications: market segmentation as a function of voltage range
-    SiC device market shares in %: split by voltage range to 2020
> SiC device application roadmap: time to market
> % of SiC device market over total silicon power device market to 2020

SiC industry outlook
> Current business model in the SiC world
> Status of the SiC device makers
> Main SiC Fabs in Europe, US, Japan
> SiC development: Focus in China
  -  Overview of SiC status in China
  -  SiC R&D in China
  -  Chinese SiC players: SiC Wafers suppliers / Epifoundry / Devices level


LOW-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS
    Power factor corrector market
> Main metrics
> Main SiC or GaN added value in PFC circuits
> PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
> Influence of switching frequency on the size and weight of the PFC module Si vs. SiC
> Main market requirements for PFC applications
> SiC Schottky diodes: 2010-2020 market forecast in units and revenue for PFC
> SiC Schottky diodes: past, present and future average value of $/amp for
SiC SBD devices in mass production
> 2013-2020  wafer consumption and substrate market value for PFC business
> SiC Schottky diodes available on the Market as off Q3 2014
> Commercial SiC diode products: introduction time to the marketplace


MEDIUM-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS
    EV/HEV market
> EV/HEV types and availability: micro, mild, full and plug in hybrid
Market forecasts for EV/HEV, by type, in units
> Expected improvements of SiC introduction in HEV
> The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV
> GaN vs. SiC & vertical vs. lateral
> Use of SiC in EV/HEV: SWOT analysis
> Bill of Material SiC vs. Si: 60kW HEV inverter module cost breakdown as of 2013.
> Hypothesis
> Results for 60kW
> BoM conclusions
> Industry supply-chain organization and expected changes
> Supply chain: from discrete to vehicles, a worldwide coverage
> Several business models for EV/HEV manufacturer regarding the power electronics integration as of today
> Detailed business relations in EV/HEV power electronics supply-chain
> Integration trend
> Impact of the evolution of the EV/HEV business-models upon the power electronics supply-chain and related products. How will this be translated into the SiC industry?
Market forecasts for:
  -  EV/HEV power inverter in M$ & units
  -  EV/HEV power modules in M$ & units
  -  EV/HEV power devices in M$
> Conclusion

    PV inverters
> Solar market segment
> Market forecasts
> PV inverter market shares in revenue
> DC/AC stage component chart
> Use of SiC in PV inverter: SWOT analysis
> PV inverters commercial products with SiC
> B.o.M. and payback time of PV inverter
> Bill of Material comparison Si vs. SiC
> Payback time estimation
> How SiC moves the fundamental economics of a PV inverter
> Conclusions
> Main hypothesis for SiC in PV inverter market quantification
> Market forecasts for
  -  PV Inverter in M$, by type
  -  PV power module in M$, by technology
  -  PV power devices in M$, by technology
> Implementation roadmap of SiC devices in PV inverters by power range
> Estimated market shares of SiC device vendors and users for PV inverters in 2013
    Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) market
> UPS architecture
> UPS product segments
> Topology trend and evolution: NPC: Neutral Point Clamped
> Projection of World UPS market to 2020 split by power range
> UPS vendor market shares
> Silicon, GaN and SiC power module market in UPS applications
> SiC device market size in UPS 2013-2020 forecast
> SiC substrate market for UPS applications 2010-2020 forecast

    Industrial motor AC drive market
> AC drive applications
> Motor drive definition – DC link
> Motor drives applications by power and voltage range
> Power module types segmentation matrix
> Application and technical segmentation
> Market size of motor AC drives by application and type
> AC drive market size in units and M$ by power range
> BoM motor drive 1kW, 20kW & 200kW
> Use of SiC in AC motor drives: SWOT analysis
> Market forecasts for :
  -  Motor drives in Unit, by technology
  -  Power modules in M$, by technology
  -  Power devices in M$, by technology 

HIGH-VOLTAGE APPLICATIONS
    Wind turbines
> Wind turbine elements
> Three main topologies for wind turbine inverters
> Architecture split forecasts: DFIG vs. full converter
> Inverter characteristics
> Wind turbine power modules market by technology
> SiC device market for wind turbines
> SiC substrate market for wind turbine applications

    Rail traction
> Overall market
> Power electronics parts in rail traction
> From Grid to IGBT: typical voltage range
> Devices – Roadmap of integration
> Main voltage ranges implemented by major train manufacturers
> Power module market for rail traction, by technology
> SiC device market in rail transportation
> SiC substrate market size for rail traction

    Smart power grid
> Power devices for smart-grid applications
> Electric grid management trends
> Smart power distribution system architectures
> HVDC standard and HVDC Light
> Typical IGBT setup in an HVDC light system
> Estimated worldwide HVDC installed capacity in MW
> FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems) technologies
> Example of supply-chain in power grids
> Silicon and SiC devices in HVDC & FACTS applications
> SiC Substrate in HVDC & FACTS applications

    SiC substrate and epitaxy market
> State-of-the-art in SiC crystal growth
> SiC growth technologies
SiC crystal growth technique comparison table
> Main SiC material manufacturing site locations
SiC diameter expansion history and comparison with Si, GaAs, GaN & AlN
> Commercially available material polytypes, doping & orientation
> Estimated SiC substrate vendor revenues & related market shares
> Evolution of relative market shares in the SiC business 2006-2013
> Current business model
> Wafer diameter evolution in production for power electronics: 2005-2020
> 2013-2020 SiC n-type and SI substrate price evolution: split by diameter (2”, 3”, 4” and 6”)
> Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2010-2020
> Overview of SiC epi-reactor install-base
> SiC epitaxy market estimate: the µm.wafer method
> Annual volume of epitaxy demand in µm.wafer: split by application to 2020

SiC TECHNOLOGY
    SiC devices
> SiC device processing main manufacturing steps
> $/mm² for SiC raw substrates and processed devices 2010 and 2020
> Chip size and power density
> Current density (A/mm²) roadmap to 2020
> SiC switches. Who is active? Q1 2013 status
> Commercially available SiC transistors as off Q3 2014
> Introduction time to the marketplace
> SiC device voltage range covered by main companies (Prod. or R&D)
> Projected 2013 MOSFET cost breakdown: from 6” wafer to 1,200V/20A packaged dies
> Estimation of market price for
  -  SiC devices diode and MOSFET to 2020
  -  GaN devices diode and HEMT to 2020
  -  silicon devices diode and IGBT to 2020

    SiC power modules
> Different types of power modules
> Packaging of power modules: trends in power module packaging
> Main challenges to address high T° SiC capabilities
> Main gate drivers supporting SiC devices
> Estimation of SiC-based power module market, split by application to 2020.

Appendix
> Research programs

 

Companies cited

ABB
AIST
Aixtron
Alstom
AnsaldoBreda
Anvil Semiconductors
AOS
Areva
Ascatron
Bombardier
Cissoid
CREE
Danfoss
Delphi
DENSO
Dow Corning
Dynex
Eaton Powerware
EnerCon
Epigress
Epiworld
ETC
Eudyna
Ezan
Fairchild
Fraunhofer IISB
Fuji Electric
GE
GeneSiC
Global Power Device
Global Power Technology
GT Advanced Technologies
Hebei Tongguang
HestiaPower
Hitachi
Honda
Hyundai
IBS
II-VI
Infineon
Jarvis
Kingway Technology
Leroy Sommer
Liebert Emerson
LPE-EPI
Magnachip
MicroSemi
Mitsubishi
New Japan Radio
N-Crystals
Nippon Steel
Nissan Motor
Norstel
Northrop Grumman
NovaSiC
OKI Electric
Okmetic
Osram
PAM Xiamen
Panasonic
Philips
Powerex
Power Integration
Raytheon
RFMD
Rockwell
Rohm
Sanrex
Schneider Electric
Semikron
SEW
Shindengen
Showa Denko
SiCC
SiCrystal
Siemens
SKC
Skyworks
SMA
STMicroelectronics
Sumitomo SEI
TankeBlue
TianYue
TEL
Toshiba
Toyota
TriQuint
TYSTC
United Silicon Carbide
Vestas
Volvo
WideTronix
Yaskawa

 

KEY FEATURES OF THE REPORT

  • Focus on the entire value-chain from substrate to device and module
  • Coverage of all applications where SiC can play a role in automotive and industry segments: PFC, EV/HEV inverter, EV/pHEV charger, PV inverter, PV micro-inverter, motor control, UPS, traction, wind turbine, smart grid, R&D and more
  • Insights on manufacturing cost breakdown, comparing SJ MOSFET, SiC MOSFET, IGBT and GaN HEMT
  • Analysis of recent moves in the SiC industry and highlights of the envisioned business evolution
  • Comparison with previous reports: What we saw, what we missed?