High end industrial sensors will win in the emerging robotic vehicle industry.
The robotic vehicle supply chain is now starting
Announcements are piling up from companies like Waymo, Uber, Lyft, Baidu and their automotive manufacturing partners such as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, Mercedes, BMW and Renault-Nissan. 2018 will most probably be the initial launch year for robotic taxis in several cities around the globe. The move has direct consequences for technology providers in high-end sensing and computing equipment. The vehicle count that we can collect suggests several tens of thousands of vehicles on the road worldwide before end of 2022. As far as we know, each robotic vehicle will be equipped with a suite of sensors encompassing Lidars, radars, cameras, Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). The technology is ready and the business models associated with autonomous driving (AD) seem to match the average selling prices for those sensors. We therefore expect exponential growth of AD technology within the next 15 years, leading to a total paradigm shift in the transportation ecosystem by 2032. This will have huge consequences for high-end sensor and computing semiconductor players and the associated system-level ecosystems as well.
This report depicts a vision of the transformations at stake and the consequences within the sensor and perception computing ecosystems. Most established players are ready to benefit from the huge expansion ahead. That includes Velodyne, Ibeo, Quanergy and Innoviz for Lidars, Continental, Delphi, and Denso for radars, Allied Vision, FLIR and First Sensor for cameras, and KVH, Physical Logic and Honeywell for IMUs. In the realm of AD computing Intel and Nvidia are the heavyweights, along with Xilinx and Renesas. Most of those players will play a significant initial role but there will be a window of opportunity for many other technology providers. Given the size of the opportunity, an enormous amount of capital has already been raised and will be necessary for what is set to be a hardware-based software revolution.
Sensors for robotic vehicles will become industries of their own
Growth rates are expected to be impressive. In 2017 production of robotic vehicles was in the range of a few hundred worldwide. We expect production volumes to reach 23.1M units annually, with cumulative production of 10.5M units, by 2032. That’s market growth in excess of 2,500-fold, or 58% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next 15 years. By then, the total revenue associated with the production of robotic vehicles will reach $300B. 52% of that figure will originate from the vehicles themselves, 26% will come from sensing hardware, 17% from computing hardware and the remaining 5% will be from integration. This means that within 15 years complete industries will be structured around robotic vehicle technologies.
When looking closer to the present, in 2022 we expect sensor revenues to reach $1.6B for Lidar, $44M for radar, $0.6B for cameras, $0.9B for IMUs and $0.1B for GNSS. The split between the different sensor modalities may not stay the same for the 15 years to come. Nevertheless the total envelope for sensing hardware should reach $77B in 2032, while, for comparative purposes, computing should be in the range of $52B.
Today’s car sales account for $2.4T and are the natural target of internet giants like Google, Baidu, Amazon and Uber. They are mostly attracted by transportation as a service market, which we believe should reach the same value of $2.4T in 2032. With an additional $1.1T to be generated by sales of personally owned AD vehicles, the added value of autonomous driving will reach a total of $3.5T. Due to the numbers at stake the stealth players in everybody’s minds are Apple and Samsung, the latter of which is not so stealthy, having bought Harman in 2017. We should expect their entry at some point in time, with a possible “mobile to smartphone style” transformation of the industry.
High-end industrial sensors will win in the robotic vehicle sensor suite
There are key differences between automotive advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) technology and the equipment that will fit into early robotic vehicles. We warned about this very persistently in our previous reports on automotive technology. Now, this report provides the missing piece with which to complete your AD market understanding. Automotive ADAS has to focus on reliability and cost issues serving a market with sales of millions of units. The technologies to serve the robotic vehicle market will be mainly driven by performance and availability and will serve a market of only tens of thousands units by 2022. The orders of magnitude are in fact totally different between the two worlds. To generalize broadly, high end industrial sensors will win in the early robotic vehicle sensor suite.
The consequences for existing players and technologies will be huge, as some high-end markets such as Lidars or industrial grade IMUs will more than double in the next few years. The impact will also be strongly felt by industrial camera makers. Technologies are expected to specialize by 2022 and possibly merge partially with ADAS by 2027. Technology-wise 2032 is expected to be another world, with a complete paradigm shift. It is not often that we are facing such deeply transformative changes powered in part by sensing technologies. The robotic revolution is underway and this report is a thorough analysis of its market and technology implications.
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
To provide a scenario for sensors within the dynamics of the robotic vehicle market
- Sensor semiconductor average selling price (ASP) forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast
- Sensor system ASP forecast, revenue forecast, shipment volume forecast
- Application focus on the sensor suite: Lidar, radar, cameras, IMU, GNSS, and computing
- Provide in-depth understanding of the ecosystem and players
- Who are the players and how does the robotic vehicle ecosystem relate to the automotive ecosystem?
- Who are the key suppliers to watch and which technology do they supply?
To provide key technical insights about and analyses of future technology trends and challenges
- Key technology choices
- Technology dynamics
- Emerging technologies and roadmaps